Thread: Peak Oil Debate

I expected this to be a hot-topic.

Here's peak oil in a paragraph. (doomer scenario)

Peak oil - The global mid-point of oil production.

We are at or past the "peak" and now we are on a decline. Alternative energies don't seem to work (only locally) and the economy is going to collapse soon; the 1st world countries will be hit the hardest especially America. The Earth has an estimated carrying capacity for 2.5 billion humans. There are almost 7 billion on the planet because oil has allowed us to exceed that capacity. There will be a die-off either slowly or abruptly. The most popular estimate for gas to hit $150 / barrel (in America) is '09-'12.

I think that oil will simply run out within my lifetime. What can we do about it?
I have no idea. And therein lies the problem.

FreshBrains

So far this year we have used almost 30 billion barrels of oil worldwide. Our reserves add up to 900 billion barrels. That's only 30 years left at this rate, which will speed up for a while. Of course there's more oil elsewhere (Antarctica) but that will quickly go dry as well.

The shale oil in Canada has the energy of a baked potatoe. It has an extremely low ERoRI...nothing to get excited about there. The Gulf of Mexico has 70 billion barrels I believe; that will last 2 years maybe with leftovers? No one mentioned it would take about 10 years to actually started pumping oil from that reserve.

A dehydrated person only needs to lose 10% of the water in their body to die. The economy is in a similar situation...we don't have to lose every drop of oil for there to be a Grand Depression. Also, it gets harder and garder to pump oil as it begins to run out. A common analogy is a yogurt cup. At first you can easily take out spoonfuls of yogurt, when you get to the bottom, you have to start navigating around the crevices and corners.

Well in that case...
I think I'm gonna start a farm so I don't have to go anywhere for the rest of my life. I've always thought flights (As in, in aircraft) were a thing to look forward to (I don't fly often, and I haven't been stuck to a huge ham-beast that overflows into my seat yet.) but I didn't think they were going to be THAT rare!

Honestly, I don't know how a society like ours could continue without oil. I guess I'll have to find out.
But for now, WOO! Buy a Hummer and go crazy!

If anyone on this forum has a solution to the peak oil problem, please, share it with me. If you know how we're going to transform millions of cars, boats, planes, and construction machines by the next few years to prevent an economic collapse of 1st world countries, please, I want to know how. I want to know how we're going to suddenly replace our main source of energy, cheap crude oil, in the next few years to match its energy.

Did you know one barrel of oil produce 1,700 kwh of heat? How are we going to match this kind of energy?Wow, I even cited my source.

Telling people about peak oil is like telling someone of deep religious faith that prayer doesn't work. "Wtf, New Zealand uses 70% hydroelectric power!!!11!!11" Great...but what about dozens of other countries. The shit is going to hit the fan soon and there is little chance to stop it. A drowning man will grab at straw.

"d00d, nanotechnology" Ok, let's bust out our alien technology and the problem will be solved. I have hope for nano-tech, I believe it can solve all our problems, yes, but can we utilize on a mass scale and prevent an economic collapse that will happen in the next few years?

"The end has been predicted countless times, this isn't any different." This isn't any different? Only that peak-oil is based on facts and not some holy scripture or the Mayan calendar which is just a wild guess out of the blue.

Look, I'm not predicting all out nuclear warfare with fire raining down from the sky. It seems like everytime I tell someone who knows nothing about it assumes that and passes me off as someone similar to a religious wacko.

I predict a slow and steady collapse with newspapers and politicians assuring the public that everything is alright, and with the car commercials continuing to roll in. The suburbs outside of cities will slowly become abandoned as people run out of food. People will have to start sustaining themselves in rural areas and starting local economies rather than the global economy we have now.

"Hey man, we got 1000 years left of uranium." Awesome, now where all are the nuclear plants?

Of course there will be electricity left in certain places! I never said that we were going to get thrown back to the dark ages! I love how people jump on the tiniest thing I say while ignoring everything else and passing me off as an idiot. I love how most people live in their bubbles consuming, consuming, consuming and driving their new H3s and livin' it up with their leather couch and 60" plasma TV.

And hey, peak oil is only the beginning. We're running out of rare earth elements. url=http://theanchorhouse.com/2006/10/10/rare-earth-may-be-chinas-checkmate/]Wow, I cited my source again.[/url] Oh and it's a recent article (October 10, 2006).

If you have a solution, share it and save the world.

Maybe it will come in time to save the planet.

Awesome, now where all are the nuclear plants? [/b]

Currently generating 15.7% of the world's electricity and increasing. The US gets 20% of its power from nuclear power plants (which you can kind of expect, since you guys love your oil). Here's the big whammy - France generates 80% of all its power from nuclear power plants and has barely any access to fossil fuels. From the (admittedly annoying) Wikipedia*.

Great stuff. So there's your nuclear power plants. As oil does so inevitably run out, I'm sure we'll see more nuclear power. And this is without even thinking of any sudden innovation we might have without other power sources. I doubt nuclear power will be the one solution to the problem (it won't be), but it's a great alternative.

I guess all doom-sayers need some sort of crisis to hold onto, though, and being as the wonderful "we are slowly running out of oil 'disaster'" isn't quite doing it for me, I'd recommend they tried the Mayan calendar schpiel again. Gets some people going.

* Wikipedia is easily edited, and for this reason I'd use any other source, but I'm sure the stats are good (they have their associated sources, all 58 of them if you care to read it). According to Wikipedia at this moment, "Nuclear power is the controlled use of aborted fetuses to release energy for work including propulsion, heat, and the generation of fairy dust. Human use of aborted fetuses to do significant useful work is currently limited to fetus fission and fetal decay.". Good thing I wasn't looking for an explanation.

Great, France is generating 80% of its power from nuclear plants. Again you ignore the rest of the world.

What about all the other countries? Ya, you're right, I totally believe the entire world is going to crumble, you got me there.

I'll say it again but it never get's through to you people.

I DON'T BELIEVE THE WORLD IS GOING TO END BUT THERE'S GOING TO BE A MAJOR DISRUPTION IN THE NEXT SEVERAL YEARS.

Also averaging from various sources...it takes maybe 7 to 12 years to get a nuclear power plant built and running. Are we suddenly going to throw up nuclear plants everywhere to counter energy problems? Probably, but the question is how many and what are the costs.

This is a stupid thread, what was I thinking?

Oil production dropped 5% during the Jimmy Carter era and the price of oil quadrupled. Oh wait, we'll just use alternatives, silly me.

Another good outlook that I was discussing the other day is ethanol. Corn byproducts.
This will help a lot of the failing farming industry and make use again of some of the usable land.
There has been talk of using it to it's full extreme.



I did not know a lot of the details, so I looked up a link: http://www.ars.usda.gov/is/pr/2002/020415.htm


A Topic on windmills->HERE

Something I don't think was mentioned was this cry for the killing of some of the wildlife..It is minimal.
Why is know one speaking out about how many animals cars kill in ONE day. I am guessing it is astronomical. It is because these same people need cars right now. Someday they too will need resources.

Biomass sounds like a great alternative especially for local economies. If used correctly, there is little pollution and it is virtually infinite. I don't know if it can be used on a large scale though.

Originally Posted by Manifold_Time

Biomass sounds like a great alternative especially for local economies. If used correctly, there is little pollution and it is virtually infinite. I don't know if it can be used on a large scale though.
[/b]

That is true on a global scale.
Not all countries have the space for such alternative methods.
Also ..as the farming industry knows, we are all heavily impacted by the weather.

Wherever it is obtainable, the governments should reward landowners to farm or lease their property that sits unused.
This is enacted in the us in many states.

The price of oil is allready climing incredably. However, I think the chance will be in a way that it isn't as bad that mankind dies or something. However, if governments are silly, and don't invest in alternative enegry, they will get in trouble.

Again you ignore the rest of the world.[/b]

That or you're ignoring my post. I quote (and I'd really put it in capital letters and bold if I thought it would help, but I don't think it does, you know) "15.7% of the world's electric". France was a very good example given of how it can work for a country and how it isn't at all impractical. I told you the US already uses it for 20% of their electric. I could've gone on to tell you that the UK government - I know this from reading my local newspapers - recognises the problem of oil decline and are batting around ideas of building more nuclear power plants, but, yes, it's going to take some time which is kind of why they're considering it and looking at the advantages/disadvantages instead of dismissing it right off the bat (ha-ha). I'm not sure quite what you define as a world, then, and I'm certainly not sure on what makes you feel that much more qualified to say things like "nothing gets through to [you people]" and talk to me so amicably, but I guess it's some sort of higher intelligence I'm missing out on.

Done correctly, I rather think there won't be any disruption at all, power-wise - although that's to say nothing for prices of electricity or the stability of the power economy. No, nuclear is not going to solve everything. Yes, it creates waste, and yes it can be dangerous. These problems can be dealt with over time, science is always finding new ways of doing things, and when the alternative is to sit there freezing to death, well, I guess that's it.

Let's admit that we're not going to convince each other and we both think of the other person as being a fool, equally.

You don't know how the future is going to turn out, neither do I, neither does anyone else holding any opinion or knowing any amount of facts. No shit, some of the world is using alternatives, for some, it's the majority of energy output. The problem right now is that we are using oil and if we keep using it, we're going to run out and the economy runs into a wall. Can we throw up enough nuclear plants or whatever else in time to save our butts? Nobody knows.

The only way to see who's right is to revisit this thread in several years.