Great comment krookedking, not profane at all.
Your first point is about thinking on multiple levels. For example:Being able to think on multiple levels is a key skill that separates the men from the boys (very sexist I know).
- What do I have?
- What does my opponent have?
- What does my opponent think I have?
- What does my opponent think I think he has?
- What does my opponent think I think he thinks I have?
As you rightly say, when the guy hasn't got a clue, thinking on the fifth level will not help you at all. You can only think one level higher than your opponent.
For example if he only thinks about his cards, which is the first level, you can only think on the second level - what does he have, because he is not thinking about what you have.
Obviously the hard part is knowing how deep your opponent thinks. You have to adapt your thinking to theirs. So yes, you can freak out too much and if you do you will come to the wrong conclusions.
Therefore, if a really good player really is a really good player, he will understand this, and adapt.
A really bad player can win against a really good player, but not for the reasons you give. If you are truly better than your opponent, then in the long run you will win against them. In the short-term, they may win however.
This is why the World Series of Poker (WSOP) tournament takes a long time to finish. The longer the tournament, the more skill will prevail over luck. Conversely, in a short tournament, anyone can get lucky and win. The chip leader in the WSOP on the first day, has never won the tournament, to my knowledge.
You're also right in saying that there is no specific way of playing that makes you a good player, in that sense it is more art than science. There are different styles, and all can be profitable. The players that win are the ones that understand the fundamental concepts behind what they doing.




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