Thread: Premonitionary dream..

wow, that sounds crazy. Good thing you didn't have to drive your car into the ditch like you did in your dream. That sounds a lot like that movie that I don't remember the name... hmm... you know, the guy can see how people are gonna die and he tries to stop them.

Is that the first time you had a very obvious promonition dream like that? Is there any way to practice premonitions to get better at it? I know its a phenomenom even more complex than lucid dreaming, so I'm really not expecting there to be much information about it.

It's the first time it's been so obvious like that.. I really can't explain it. I don't even lucid dream, though I want to.. but I haven't seem to have found the trick to doing it yet.

Originally posted by tyrantt23
wow, that sounds crazy. Good thing you didn't have to drive your car into the ditch like you did in your dream. That sounds a lot like that movie that I don't remember the name... hmm... you know, the guy can see how people are gonna die and he tries to stop them.

Is that the first time you had a very obvious promonition dream like that? Is there any way to practice premonitions to get better at it? I know its a phenomenom even more complex than lucid dreaming, so I'm really not expecting there to be much information about it.

Hey there, yeah, thats quite amazing
My wife recently had another premonition herself - see it here Anna_Mae's Dream Premonition Thread

Interesting, but still completely statistically explainable, sorry to ruin the party.

Originally posted by bradybaker
Interesting, but still completely statistically explainable, sorry to ruin the party.

Of course, you can say that there was a n% probability of me dreaming about an event that actually happened in the same location and with similar details. That doesn't prove anything. You can't prove it one way or the other.

Originally posted by bradybaker
Interesting, but still completely statistically explainable, sorry to ruin the party.

what exactly do you mean by that?



[EDIT:]
Ohh, he meant there is a chance that was just coincidence. That's what I thought he meant, but wasn't sure.

I agree with Ultima. The chances are very small for someone to have a dream about a car wreck, involving a drunk driver, in an acquainted location. Also, most people don't remember all of their dreams every night. Therefore, the chances of you having such dream and remembering are incredibly small by itself. I would say an average person has (and remembers) less than a couple of dozen of such dreams. The chances of a similar accident happening on the same day and the same street are infinitely smaller.

If you believe its just a coincidence, then the dream should sound just as amazing as if you believe it was indeed a premonition.

Originally posted by Ultima
Of course, you can say that there was a n% probability of me dreaming about an event that actually happened in the same location and with similar details. That doesn't prove anything. You can't prove it one way or the other.

I wasn't trying to \"prove\" anything. But thank you for agreeing with me that it is statistically explainable. Especially considering the number of car accidents that involve alcohol, you hear about them daily.

Originally posted by tyrantt23
Therefore, the chances of you having such dream and remembering are incredibly small by itself.

Agreed, but then take into account the population of the world (excluding people in undeveloped countries who have never seen a car or heard of alcohol) and there are probably millions upon millions of people per night who have a dream involving a drunk-driving car wreck. Then I'm sure that at least a few thousand of those people actually hear about or stumble upon an actual wreck.

In reality, it would really be a miracle if a cooincidence like this NEVER happened.

Well, over an entire country yes, you hear about them daily. I don't remember the last time there was one in that particular location, however. The probability of one happening in a particular location is rare, and dreaming about it? Yes, it can be explained by statistics but it can also be explained by saying it was a premonition. Neither is more factually correct than the other, leaving me free to choose what I want to believe. I choose to believe it was more than just a coincidence

Originally posted by bradybaker+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(bradybaker)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-Ultima

Of course, you can say that there was a n% probability of me dreaming about an event that actually happened in the same location and with similar details. That doesn't prove anything. You can't prove it one way or the other.

I wasn't trying to \"prove\" anything. But thank you for agreeing with me that it is statistically explainable. Especially considering the number of car accidents that involve alcohol, you hear about them daily.

Originally posted by tyrantt23
Therefore, the chances of you having such dream and remembering are incredibly small by itself.

Agreed, but then take into account the population of the world (excluding people in undeveloped countries who have never seen a car or heard of alcohol) and there are probably millions upon millions of people per night who have a dream involving a drunk-driving car wreck. Then I'm sure that at least a few thousand of those people actually hear about or stumble upon an actual wreck.

In reality, it would really be a miracle if a cooincidence like this NEVER happened.[/b]

So you fully accept the fact that it is probable that it was a coincidence...but choose to believe that you successfully predicted the future. Someone, please tell me, when did ignorance become a point of view?

*sigh*
The eternal problem with premonitions like these...
Indeed, it could be coincidence, and yes the chances are small (although this again depends on how you work it out)

It's virtually impossible to know for a certainty whether it was a coincidence or not
Annoying - because it could be worth knowing

Like Ultima said though, even if it's coincidence, its hard not to marvel at the chances of *that* happening...

Originally posted by bradybaker
So you fully accept the fact that it is probable that it was a coincidence...but choose to believe that you successfully predicted the future. Someone, please tell me, when did ignorance become a point of view?

Tell me, where did I accept that it is probable that it is a coincidence? I said it's possible, I never said it was probable. I never said I successfully predicted the future, either. For all I know I might have had the dream concurrently; as the event was happening. As for ignorance, to discount one possible option is ignorance. For you to say that it is probably coincidence is ignorance, as it ignores other possibilities.

For you to say that it is probably coincidence is ignorance, as it ignores other possibilities.[/b]

Since you like playing the exact word game with bradybaker, "probably" does not mean "defintely", and therefore no possiblites are being ignored. Just as saying that it is "probable that a dice will land on a number less than 3", it does not mean the other possiblites are not being considered.

Originally posted by Kaniaz

For you to say that it is probably coincidence is ignorance, as it ignores other possibilities.

Since you like playing the exact word game with bradybaker, \"probably\" does not mean \"defintely\", and therefore no possiblites are being ignored. Just as saying that it is \"probable that a dice will land on a number less than 3\", it does not mean the other possiblites are not being considered.[/b]

Ok first of all, the word 'probably' means 'most likely yes', which is not what I was said in my post that he referred to. Second of all, he inferred that all other possibilities were ignorant, by saying "when did ignorance become a point of view?" which was rather inflammatory. This has nothing to do with word games, it has to do with the simple fact that you can't discount one or the other. While it's *possible* it was coincidence, that doesn't give you the right to say it was "probable", because to make that judgement you need facts which we don't have. You can't really say what it was. Maybe I did see into the future, maybe I didn't. It's fun to think about it, at least when you don't have pedantic types calling you ignorant for not thinking the same as them

Originally posted by Ultima
pedantic

I love that word *sigh*

Look, heres another example where nothing can really be proved, or disproved...
The argument becomes a matter of semantics (eg last few posts), and the level of probability
And since we can't possibly claim to know all the variables... we can't insist on accurate prediction of this sort of probability

Its a moot point...

The way I see it, the chances are actually more like this:
1. The chance of having a dream about a drunk driver crash, and then have it happen the next day is slim.
2. The chance of having any old dream, and having something similar occur the next day is much higher.

High enough to label "premonitionary" dreams as coincidence, especially considering we have about 4 dreams a night, and these "premonitionary" dreams only happen once in a good while. So this should be approached more in of an "option 2" fashion, because had Ultima dreamed about something else that night, and had it come true, he still would have posted about it. That's still a cool dream/occurrance though!

He said:

So you fully accept the fact that it is probable that it was a coincidence...but choose to believe that you successfully predicted the future. Someone, please tell me, when did ignorance become a point of view?[/b]

Which I believe is not a flame at all. A flame would have no basis with which to say such a thing.

While it's *possible* it was coincidence, that doesn't give you the right to say it was \"probable\", because to make that judgement you need facts which we don't have.[/b]

Word games. Again. Besides, he has facts. Probability. No other case has been proven to be true, which is good enough for me, just as the same that if somebody claims pigs float, then they probably don't because there's no confirmed, proven case of pigs defying gravity.

Originally posted by Kaniaz
He said:

So you fully accept the fact that it is probable that it was a coincidence...but choose to believe that you successfully predicted the future. Someone, please tell me, when did ignorance become a point of view?

Which I believe is not a flame at all. A flame would have no basis with which to say such a thing.

While it's *possible* it was coincidence, that doesn't give you the right to say it was \"probable\", because to make that judgement you need facts which we don't have.[/b]

Word games. Again. Besides, he has facts. Probability. No other case has been proven to be true, which is good enough for me, just as the same that if somebody claims pigs float, then they probably don't because there's no confirmed, proven case of pigs defying gravity.[/b]

I'm not really sure what you're trying to say here.. nobody here has "facts" about which viewpoint is more "accurate" and nobody has proven anything. Really, it's like religion... it's all about what you choose to believe.

Originally posted by Placebo+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Placebo)</div>

Like Ultima said though, even if it's coincidence, its hard not to marvel at the chances of *that* happening...[/b]

To the contrary, as I stated before. It would be infinitely more miraculous if coincidences like this one never happened.

Originally posted by Ultima+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Ultima)</div>

For all I know I might have had the dream concurrently; as the event was happening.[/b]

Ha! Yeah I guess I never considered that option, how stupid of me.

<!--QuoteBegin-SteveHatton@
The way I see it, the chances are actually more like this:
1. The chance of having a dream about a drunk driver crash, and then have it happen the next day is slim.
2. The chance of having any old dream, and having something similar occur the next day is much higher.

You're on the right track Steve (and I know that you're agreeing with me) but you're missing one key point. The chances are slim for one individual to dream about a drunk driver crash and then have it happen the next day, but across an entire population, the odds of it happening increase dramatically to the point where coincidences like this are unavoidable.

The problem is that when one of these cases is reported, the well documented cognitive phenomenon of confirmation bias kicks in and people pay attention to positive hits (like this coincidence) and ignore the countless negative hits (the trillions of dreams that are not premonitionary). This leads to false widespread belief in such things as seeing the future through dream. Then you have other factors such as belief perserverence and belief bias which I'm not even going to get into at this point. But I suggest you search those terms up in Google.

<!--QuoteBegin-Ultima
I'm not really sure what you're trying to say here.. nobody here has \"facts\" about which viewpoint is more \"accurate\" and nobody has proven anything. Really, it's like religion... it's all about what you choose to believe.

What I have is a framework to understand how and why coincidences like this happen. The framework of probability, and more specifically the framework of probability as it applies to populations. A framework that you are choosing to ignore. I'm not just talking out of my ass here, search up The Law of Large Numbers and you will get a "professional" definition of what I'm talking about. Or, heaven forbid, pick up a copy of Scientific American once in a while and acquire some useful knowledge. Ok...that last comment is going to be taken as a flame, I take it back.

But anyways, when you start "choosing" beliefs, that's where the trouble begins. Especially when that choice involves no rational thought whatsoever. If there is no fact to back up a claim, why do you ignore that and "choose" to believe it anyways? How can you base your worldview around hearsay and wishful thinking?

And I know what you're thinking now, "Oh, this guy is awful! He's so closeminded! Why can't he accept the fact that maybe I can predict the future?! The horror!!!"

But please take a second, consider Occam's Razor (if there is more than one explanation for something, the simplest explanation tends to be the correct one), and ask yourself, "What makes more sense, I predicted the future through a dream? or I experienced an interesting coincidence?". Then formulate a rational response to this post.

Thank you for your time.

*Bows*

I'd just like to point out that it wasn't just one individual, and definitely not the entire population
My wife had a dream like this within a day of it, and another within the same week
And this site might be big, but certainly doesn't hold the entire population. Ie... you won't see them all on here

""What makes more sense, I predicted the future through a dream? or I experienced an interesting coincidence?". As I said, neither can be proven any more than the other, so you can believe whatever you want to believe. If I choose to say I predicted the future (which I didn't, though I acknowledge it is possible), I am no more or less correct than you are when you say it was a coincidence (which is also possible). I don't know why you continue to argue in favor of one interpretation, because both are equally valid interpretations. There's no way of placing more value on either, as you were trying to with your question of "what makes more sense?".

Personally, I think it was a cool dream and I think it was more than a coincidence, though I don't think I predicted the future. I have the feeling that it happened concurrently... I know you personally think its coincidence and nothing more, so let's agree to disagree on what we personally think about it, because that is just our opinion and not based on any facts that we can prove

You obviously didn't read anything that I wrote, but ok.

I just concluded that Ultima is a complete waste of time because everything is based not on fact, but what you *believe*. Oh. Okay then.

Originally posted by Kaniaz
I just concluded that Ultima is a complete waste of time because everything is based not on fact, but what you *believe*. Oh. Okay then.

I'm apparently worth enough time for you to post a reply

Anyways I'm done with the deliberate misreading of my posts.

You aren't going to respond to my earlier post Ultima? By respond I don't mean repeat yourself.