The Fertility Implosion

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/13/op...implosion.html

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The speed of the change is breathtaking. A woman in Oman today has 5.6 fewer babies than a woman in Oman 30 years ago. Morocco, Syria and Saudi Arabia have seen fertility-rate declines of nearly 60 percent, and in Iran it’s more than 70 percent. These are among the fastest declines in recorded history.

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I wonder if this news will quiet down our resident Stormfront spokeschildren? :cheeky:

The article goes on to say that the decline is nearly global. There are pretty obvious pros and cons--so much for the problem of overpopulation, but before long we'll have a huge proportion of elderly people relying on an ever smaller workforce.

Clearly these foreigners are just doing it to emulate the civilized West so they can enter our country more easily. They should be voluntarily repatriated.

I personally think that technology will eventually be able to support the elderly and lazy and that only a few generations of people will have to deal with significant amounts of economic dead weight unaided.

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Originally Posted by Taosaur

before long we'll have a huge proportion of elderly people relying on an ever smaller workforce.

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That's because we stick to these silly ideas that retirement should come after only 30 years of work. So the average person would be "not" working for 50 years, assuming they live 80 years...

I can't wait until I start paying into a retirement system which will never pay me back... *sigh*

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Originally Posted by ThePreserver

That's because we stick to these silly ideas that retirement should come after only 30 years of work. So the average person would be "not" working for 50 years, assuming they live 80 years...

I can't wait until I start paying into a retirement system which will never pay me back... *sigh*

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Only 30 years of work? lol I hope thats a typo because most people assume at least 40..maybe it will even be 50 by the time we get to retirement age. This also assumes you didnt work during college. Either way, I hardly think its silly that someone getting close to 70 should not have to work any more and enjoy the last 10 years of their life, however hard that may be due to health conditions.

Anyways, back on topic. This is indeed very interesting. Perhaps we wont have to terraform mars quite yet after all ;)

We're expected to peak at about 10 billion people; once the whole world becomes "developed" we will start to have a declining population.

However, "development" also means eating MUCH more red meat, which requires MUCH more land. Once China and India catch up to us in meat-eating ("Us" being the Western world, especially Americans), there won't be enough land left in Asia for food production, or enough water for food production.

There isn't enough land on Earth to support 5 billion Westerners, let alone 10 billion developed peoples.

Or you can just never retire. Hopefully advancements in medicine will make people healthy and active enough that they can work as long as they want. Then we just need to get people into jobs they enjoy doing. If you enjoy your work, then retiring isn't a problem. you can go forever. If you work a soul crushing job that drains your energy then retirement seems like a release, and the only way to escape it.

Thats true Alric, the trick is finding a job thats not soul crushing to you. It seems to me the way business is done needs to change to not make office life de-humanizing to a lot of individuals.

That's not how rationalization works, unfortunately. Jobs are meant to be simple, idiotic, and dehumanizing in a rationalized system; it means you can be easily replaced, like a cog in a clock. Not doing your best? OK, we'll replace you. It works great... for the system. Not so much for the cogs.

There's a direct link between education and population in that people with better educations have fewer kids. Either the education and infrastructure is improving in the areas indicated, or sterilization agents are being added to the water supply, which I find equally likely.