Irans Election

I'm surprised no one has made a thread about this yet, so leave it to me to make one badly.
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Ahmadinejad has won by a landslide, 67% (if I heard correctly).

Do people over there really believe

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There was no Holocaust. There are no homosexuals in Iran, Israel should be wiped off the face of the Earth

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?

How do people win by that much?

Are the "33%" people protesting for nothing?

Did he really hide Moussavi's votes ?

Why won't he allow a recount?
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It just frustrates me to no end for some odd reason. What do you think about this? Countless videos have been posted on Youtube of people getting shot at and dying, not that that is a very trusty source, but it shows what's going on.

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Originally Posted by hellohihello

Ahmadinejad has won by a landslide, 67% (if I heard correctly).

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Yep, sounds about right to me.

It is a sovereign nation. The government has a right to kill and oppress the people as much as they like. Mind your own business! They are freedom fighters.

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Originally Posted by Universal Mind

It is a sovereign nation. The government has a right to kill and oppress the people as much as they like. Mind your own business! They are freedom fighters.

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Sarcasm is a great skill to have....when used properly.

was used quite properly there. The elections there are just as fake as Hussein's were lol.

I hope these pissed off kids can overthrow Ayatollah Khamenei.

There people in the US who argue that the holocaust never happened, and people who argue that it was greatly exaggerated. So is it really surprising to hear people over there doubt it, when people over here doubt it?

Israel wants to wipe them off the face of the earth, so its not surprising that the would want to do the same back. People in the US talk about wiping other countries off the map too. Everyone has extreme people. Though to be fair, I think Iran would be happy to live peacefully with its neighbors if their neighbors weren't so hostile towards them. Its a give and take relationship.

There are also cases of election fraud in our own country as well. Every election there are cases of it, on the small scale and I think everyone remember the big Florida one.

Anyway, with the mess we got here. Is it really so surprising to hear stuff like this in other countries?

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Originally Posted by Alric

There people in the US who argue that the holocaust never happened, and people who argue that it was greatly exaggerated. So is it really surprising to hear people over there doubt it, when people over here doubt it?

Israel wants to wipe them off the face of the earth, so its not surprising that the would want to do the same back. People in the US talk about wiping other countries off the map too. Everyone has extreme people. Though to be fair, I think Iran would be happy to live peacefully with its neighbors if their neighbors weren't so hostile towards them. Its a give and take relationship.

There are also cases of election fraud in our own country as well. Every election there are cases of it, on the small scale and I think everyone remember the big Florida one.

Anyway, with the mess we got here. Is it really so surprising to hear stuff like this in other countries?

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Yes, but this is the President of the country we're talking about.

lol, Democracy

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Originally Posted by Seismonaut

Sarcasm is a great skill to have....when used properly.

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Could you be a little more vague?

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Originally Posted by Alric

There people in the US who argue that the holocaust never happened, and people who argue that it was greatly exaggerated. So is it really surprising to hear people over there doubt it, when people over here doubt it?

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We are talking about the president of Iran and the scum that works for him, not a few odd ball citizens who have no power in the government.

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Originally Posted by Alric

Israel wants to wipe them off the face of the earth, so its not surprising that the would want to do the same back. People in the US talk about wiping other countries off the map too. Everyone has extreme people. Though to be fair, I think Iran would be happy to live peacefully with its neighbors if their neighbors weren't so hostile towards them. Its a give and take relationship.

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Again, we are talking about the president and his government.

Israel has enough nuclear power to wipe Iran off the map. If they wanted to do it, they would have done it already. Now, imagine what would happen to Israel if Iran had the same level of nuclear power.

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Originally Posted by Alric

There are also cases of election fraud in our own country as well. Every election there are cases of it, on the small scale and I think everyone remember the big Florida one.

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The Florida conspiracy has not been proven. It has only been suggested. At any rate, two wrongs don't make a right.

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Originally Posted by Alric

Anyway, with the mess we got here. Is it really so surprising to hear stuff like this in other countries?

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Do you understand just how evil the government of Iran is? They train mindless terrorists to attack civilians without any kind of intelligently calculated results. They execute homosexuals and adulterers. What we have here is nothing compared to Iran.

If you are going to be the Iranian government's lawyer, you are going to have a very difficult time with it. Read about their human rights records, and then attempt to find data on any kind of good they have done for the world.

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Originally Posted by Universal Mind

The Florida conspiracy has not been proven. It has only been suggested. At any rate, two wrongs don't make a right.

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It hasn't been proven that they had any sort of election fraud either. Anyway my point was, if there are people who believe it here, why is it hard to believe there are people over there who think the same way? If they are a majority then they may very well elect someone like that.

As for nuclear weapons, Israel doesn't use them for the same reason Iran wouldn't use them if they had them. Which is no country ever uses them, because they fear they will get wiped out if they do.

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Originally Posted by Alric

It hasn't been proven that they had any sort of election fraud either. Anyway my point was, if there are people who believe it here, why is it hard to believe there are people over there who think the same way? If they are a majority then they may very well elect someone like that.

As for nuclear weapons, Israel doesn't use them for the same reason Iran wouldn't use them if they had them. Which is no country ever uses them, because they fear they will get wiped out if they do.

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Who would wipe out Israel for using nukes? No country with nukes would want to make that move.

Iran probably wouldn't overtly use nukes against Israel. They really would be wiped out by us if they did. What they would do is give them to Al Qaeda or somebody and let them do the dirty deed. Then the Akhmadinejad would go, "What? What are you talking about? We did nothing. :chuckle:" That is what we were worried the Hussein regime would end up doing against us.

Speaking of using nukes, Korea wants to nuke USA.

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Originally Posted by hellohihello

Speaking of using nukes, Korea wants to nuke USA.

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North Korea that is.

If the Iranian election wasn't rigged, then the Iranian government is going out of it's way to make it look like it was rigged. What justifiable reason did they have to block social networking sites?

And as for:

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There was no Holocaust. There are no homosexuals in Iran, Israel should be wiped off the face of the Earth

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Those are all things that Ahadinejad has claimed, and I'd shudder to think that everyone who lives in Iran has the exact same beliefs as him. I mean, if that were the case there would be no protests against his electoral win.

Thanks hellohihello for the thread, but I think this thread on the overall has missed the point

This thread shows little respect. I can't believe you guys are joking about middle eastern nations wiping out each other when innocent Iranians have lost their lives this weekend, who committed no other crime other than wanting their voices heard. Put yourselves in their shoes. This mess is nothing to joke about.

I was really hopeful earlier this week. It felt like a powerful movement based on peaceful demonstration, not unlike the marches led by MLK.

This change in Iran, wouldn't just effect Iran. It would effect the entire middle east. And the middle east is effecting the world.

But now what power the people had this weekend, it's really weakened. The government knows how to enforce terror. The only thing the Iranian government is good at. It's forcing people to lie on the news. And you have to wonder, how they were forced to lie. For how long were they tortured, or whose life, theirs, or a loved one, was threatened?

You can't put this genie back in the bottle, but if the Iranian people lose face now - it's not a problem that's just going to magically disappear. It's going to fester and spiral out of control. Especially when the government of Iran is so keen on blaming the west, namely America and UK, who knows what this can mean.

Many futurists point to the middle east as the possible birth place of WWIII. If however the people of Iran can reclaim a government for themselves, the threat of WWIII could diminish significantly.

For this reason, what is happening in Iran and to the Iranian people is important to everyone. And this conflict, this resolution, its in the hands of the Iranian people. America or some outside force can't give a democracy to Iran. Every true democracy has been sown by the blood of her own people.

Tomorrow, thursday, there are plans for another organized protest. Is it still going to happen at this point after all the terror this week? I hope the Iranian people can find more strength and go outside tomorrow. I hope the numbers will be greater than previously. And I hope more religious clerics defy the Ayatollah and get their asses outside.

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Originally Posted by juroara

Thanks hellohihello for the thread, but I think this thread on the overall has missed the point

This thread shows little respect. I can't believe you guys are joking about middle eastern nations wiping out each other when innocent Iranians have lost their lives this weekend, who committed no other crime other than wanting their voices heard. Put yourselves in their shoes. This mess is nothing to joke about.

I was really hopeful earlier this week. It felt like a powerful movement based on peaceful demonstration, not unlike the marches led by MLK.

This change in Iran, wouldn't just effect Iran. It would effect the entire middle east. And the middle east is effecting the world.

But now what power the people had this weekend, it's really weakened. The government knows how to enforce terror. The only thing the Iranian government is good at. It's forcing people to lie on the news. And you have to wonder, how they were forced to lie. For how long were they tortured, or whose life, theirs, or a loved one, was threatened?

You can't put this genie back in the bottle, but if the Iranian people lose face now - it's not a problem that's just going to magically disappear. It's going to fester and spiral out of control. Especially when the government of Iran is so keen on blaming the west, namely America and UK, who knows what this can mean.

Many futurists point to the middle east as the possible birth place of WWIII. If however the people of Iran can reclaim a government for themselves, the threat of WWIII could diminish significantly.

For this reason, what is happening in Iran and to the Iranian people is important to everyone. And this conflict, this resolution, its in the hands of the Iranian people. America or some outside force can't give a democracy to Iran. Every true democracy has been sown by the blood of her own people.

Tomorrow, thursday, there are plans for another organized protest. Is it still going to happen at this point after all the terror this week? I hope the Iranian people can find more strength and go outside tomorrow. I hope the numbers will be greater than previously. And I hope more religious clerics defy the Ayatollah and get their asses outside.

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I'm with you, together they can turn over the government. All democracy was sown with the blood of their children.

Not so fast. Japan was not a democracy until we turned it into one in 1945. Now it is the second wealthiest and most advanced nation in the world. We turned West Germany into a democracy and later defeated the Soviet Union and took away their hold on East Germany. Now Germany is the third wealthiest nation in the world. Iraq and Afghanistan will eventually be great countries. We also freed a lot of Europe from Nazi rule. They are experiencing the great benefits of that today. Also, don't you think what is happening in Iran is partly inspired by the democratization of Iraq and Afghanistan?

Juroara, satire can be used to make important serious points. I illustrated the absurdity of giving credence to a totalitarian state as though they are moral and just minding their own business by being so oppressive. It is the whole world's business. I would be surprised if you are rooting for the people of Iran more than I am.

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Originally Posted by Universal Mind

Not so fast. Japan was not a democracy until we turned it into one in 1945. Now it is the second wealthiest and most advanced nation in the world. We turned West Germany into a democracy and later defeated the Soviet Union and took away their hold on East Germany. Now Germany is the third wealthiest nation in the world. Iraq and Afghanistan will eventually be great countries. We also freed a lot of Europe from Nazi rule. They are experiencing the great benefits of that today. Also, don't you think what is happening in Iran is partly inspired by the democratization of Iraq and Afghanistan?

Juroara, satire can be used to make important serious points. I illustrated the absurdity of giving credence to a totalitarian state as though they are moral and just minding their own business by being so oppressive. It is the whole world's business. I would be surprised if you are rooting for the people of Iran more than I am.

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I don't know why you hold so many ideas about me :D

I was so fired up after their first rally, I just wanted to wear green! I didn't have green sadly. So I ended up with puke yellow.

But I'm sorry, I don't agree with your view of history. It ignores the trials and tribulations of the people within those countries. You can not force free will.

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Originally Posted by juroara

I don't know why you hold so many ideas about me :D

I was so fired up after their first rally, I just wanted to wear green! I didn't have green sadly. So I ended up with puke yellow.

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Oh yeah? Well I stopped traffic while dancing with sparklers in my hands.

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Originally Posted by juroara

But I'm sorry, I don't agree with your view of history. It ignores the trials and tribulations of the people within those countries. You can not force free will.

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I did not take anything away from what a lot of citizens did to maintain those countries. I stated facts about how we restructured the governments of the countries.

Why would Israel use nukes..?

They would just use traditional artillery to flatten the country; like they have done to most other countries unfortunate enough to share borders with Israel.

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Originally Posted by Xei

Why would Israel use nukes..?

They would just use traditional artillery to flatten the country; like they have done to most other countries unfortunate enough to share borders with Israel.

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Pressing a few nuke buttons would have been much easier than what Israel has been through to defend their country.

Several academics have pointed out that the numbers in the Iran election look suspicious. In a nutshell, they aren't random enough. For example, there are too many 7s and not enough 5s in the final digits of the provinces' vote counts. (Leading digits in numbers such as these tend to conform to Benford's law, but digits closer to the end essentially have a 1/10 chance of appearing.) Additionally, there are fewer identical adjacent numbers than would be expected from chance. Both of these observations are symptomatic of numbers fabricated by a human to appear random (as consistent with past research).

Obviously this isn't anything like conclusive proof, but it's one more reason to be suspicious.

Hah, that's brilliant... I'm aware of Benford's Law; pretty hilarious that it can be used to detect election fraud where people are ignorant of it though.

I'd like to see a statistical number on the discrepancies though.

If they get enough fabricated data, the probability of non-fabrication should fall exponentially.

According to this article in the Washington Post:

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...in Iran's provincial results, the digit 7 appears 17 percent of the time, and only 4 percent of the results end in the number 5. Two such departures from the average -- a spike of 17 percent or more in one digit and a drop to 4 percent or less in another -- are extremely unlikely. Fewer than four in a hundred non-fraudulent elections would produce such numbers.

As a point of comparison, we can analyze the state-by-state vote counts for John McCain and Barack Obama in last year's U.S. presidential election. The frequencies of last digits in these election returns never rise above 14 percent or fall below 6 percent, a pattern we would expect to see in seventy out of a hundred fair elections.

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To check for deviations of this type, we examined the pairs of last and second-to-last digits in Iran's vote counts. On average, if the results had not been manipulated, 70 percent of these pairs should consist of distinct, non-adjacent digits.

Not so in the data from Iran: Only 62 percent of the pairs contain non-adjacent digits. This may not sound so different from 70 percent, but the probability that a fair election would produce a difference this large is less than 4.2 percent.

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The probability that a fair election would produce both too few non-adjacent digits and the suspicious deviations in last-digit frequencies described earlier is less than .005. In other words, a bet that the numbers are clean is a one in two-hundred long shot.

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