Originally Posted by Spartiate
Lol this is starting to get really off-topic and pointless, but it's kinda fun... First of all, in a war with China, I can't foresee any scenario where China would take the fight to the US mainland, the fighting would surely be done in or around China. This means that China can commit 100% of its forces + reserves for home defense, whereas the US surely won't send the entirety of its forces to Asia (also, in this hypothetical scenario, would half the US military still be tied up in the Middle-East?) China would also have the advantage of fighting on home turf, in a familiar environment with well planned defenses.
Secondly, in the case of nuclear war, it doesn't take thousands of warheads to assure MAD. I believe China has a couple dozen nukes capable of reaching the US. Imagine what would happen if the 20 largest cities in the US got nuked, I think that'd pretty much be the end of the country as we know it. Yes China would likewise be obliterated, but it doesn't really matter when your home is ruined. There aren't really any winners in nuclear war.
Now for conventional warfare, on the ground, numbers always win. Technology only lets you take on larger numbers at a time. Even the US knows this. In Europe during WW2, Americans were using the inferior Sherman tank against the then top-of-the line German Tiger tank. The US would end up winning most tank battles against the Germans. How? They would team up 4 Shermans against 1 tiger. The idea was that by the time a Tiger would take out the first 2 Shermans, the others would have outmaneuvered the Tiger and gotten in close where their gun was more effective. Now keep in mind that in times of war, China could easily draft from its population of 500 MILLION that are fit for service.
In the air, it's not like the whole US air force is made of B-2s and F-22s. You say US aircraft technology is a decade ahead of the Chinese, but most US planes are 10+ years old, comparable to some of the equipment that China has. Even stealth technology isn't foolproof, remember that F-117 that got shot down in Kosovo? The US only has around 20 active B-2s, if one or two get shot down, they'll stop using them. Also, like all Soviet-based militaries, China has MASSIVE amounts of air defenses, making US air superiority unlikely. The US lost hundreds of planes against some pretty basic SAM and AAA in Vietnam.
On the seas, I wouldn't expect China to put up a huge fight. Except for their coastline, China has no reason to fight on the seas, it's not like it has any overseas bases or possessions. They do have some pretty advanced cruise missiles and subs that could keep American ships from coming too close to the mainland. Again, it's not like the US can afford to lose a third of its fleet, even if it destroys the whole Chinese navy. Imagine the fallout back home if the US lost an aircraft carrier or two.
The last time the US faced off against China ended in a draw. It also lost against Vietnam which was a much weaker opponent than China. Since then it's only fought against people that live in caves and mud huts.
Haha, yeah, a hypothetical war like this is fun to draw up. Not fun in real life of course, but fun to toss around.
Sure, nukes would screw us both. That is a given.
Anyway, you concede that America has a superior Navy. And we have a kickin' Air Force to support it.
And yeah, we aren't stocked up on B-2s, but we are on F-22 raptors. Congress recently stopped production of them not because they aren't good planes. (They are a highly superior aircraft, despite being about 10 years old.) But because we have more than is neccessary when considering the cost. 182 is a pretty big number, considering how much damage those stealth fighters could do if they could fly over the Chinese mainland.
And although the Chinese have quite a few planes at their disposal, many of them are from the 60s. (Including the vast majority of their "dogfighting" planes and all but a few bombers that I can count on my fingers and toes.) Although we may only be 10 years ahead of China when comparing both of our best fighters, (which is still a sizeable difference,) the backbone of China's airforce is is a good 20 years behind the backbone of ours. Plus, ours has more sheer numbers.
I think it is pretty well established that we would mop the floor with China both in the air and on the sea. Maybe we wouldn't do so hot if we got involved in a land war in Asia. One could argue it would be even dumber than facing a Sicilian when death is on the line. But we could surround China's coasts and beat the crap out of their coastal defenses because their navy would be dead if they tried to fight back before we got there, and if we did get to the coast we could bomb the whole thing with enough aircraft that their coastal anti-aircraft couldn't repel it. Especially when guns aboard tons of ships are bombing it simultaneously. If, as our navy/air force approached China, they engaged us on the open sea with both their Navy and their Air Force, their navy is so much weaker than ours that both their Air Force and Navy would be destroyed almost from our Navy alone. If they waited until we got to the coast to engage us, we are in a position to take full advantage of all of our bombers, F-22s, and assault ships. (Plus, we have more subs than China.) Everything about our navy and airforce outclasses everything the Chinese would have to try and stop it.
As far as the numbers argument, well... Infantry can't do much against an assault plane. Or a destroyer. The thing is, we actually outnumber the Chinese in military force. Quite handedly, so, actually. We have more vehicles. The large scale land wars of the world wars are dead.
Granted, the fallout would be bad in this scenario. If we attacked China on their mainland, which is giving as much an upper hand to them as possible, the losses wouldn't be minimal. We would probably lose a good amount of our air force breaking their coast. (Even though the Chinese Coast Guard is part of the police force and would be fairly inneffective against such a large scale invasion.) But if we were at a full scale war with China, the American people would be too terrified about the whole ordeal to do anything significant to stop the conflict or slow the military down significantly. In the end, the outcome would not ever be in doubt.
Sure, we lost Vietnam. Just like we are losing Iraq/Afghanistan. But both of those were/are not direct wars where the U.S. faced off against a forward enemy. In one, we were fighting communism. In the other terrorism. If the goal in Vietnam was simply, 'destroy all of Northern Vietnam' and north Vietnam didn't have big allies it would have been fairly easy. Just like destroying the Iraqi government was nothing.
Your turn. (:
|
|
Bookmarks