What's undoubtedly true for me:
- every blue-eyed sees 99 blue-eyed, 100 brown-eyed, 1 green-eyed
- every brown-eyed sees 100 blue-eyed, 99 brown-eyed, 1 green-eyed
- the brown-eyed ones and the guru can never leave the island, because 'brown' and 'green' is never mentioned, each of them might as well have another, fourth color altogether. So the only question each of the 201 people can ask themselves is: 'do I have blue eyes or not'
- there is no distinction between people with the same eye-color and each of them knows that plus each of them knows, that everyone else knows that too :D. So they treat a group of people with the same eye-color (no matter if they see 99 or 100 of them) as one individual mind.
So I'm thinking:
The important thing is not how many people there are of a specific color (might as well be 1000, but there has to be more than one, so that there is always at least one observer plus one observed within a color-group), but the important thing is how many different colors there are.
With this premise, the problem is reduced in number of people:
- a blue-eyed sees one (collective) blue-eyed mind, one (collective) brown-eyed mind, one green-eyed
- a brown-eyed sees one (collective) blue-eyed mind, one collective brown-eyed mind, one green-eyed
Basically my point is: a blue-eyed sees one other blue eyed 'person' and asks himself, whether that is all of the present blue-eyed ones or whether he is included in that group as well (and he knows that that blue-eyed 'person' asks the same question). If he sees that the blue-eyed 'person' does not leave on the first night, then it must be because they see a blue-eyed person. So all blue eyed persons will know it the second night and leave the island (????????).
Hmm funny thing is that each brown-eyed and even the guru will believe the same thing the second night, so they will also claim to have blue eyes, but they are then of course not let off the island... yes I have my doubts about this...