Oil Prices: A Bubble Inflated with Fear

[Belisarius]

Are High oil prices, turmoil in the middle east, and record prices for the oil industry related? Yes. Every time a bomb goes of, oil prices go up. This is a fact anyone who watches the news can see, and it is clear evidence that the price of oil is being determined, not by real supply and demand changes, but by speculators' fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East. Talk of peak oil, wars in the middle east, and fear of hurricanes fuels the speculation that drives up oil prices. The supply, however, is increasing faster than consumption, but not as fast as these oil prices would justify. The oil industry is hesitating to exploit more costly oil supplies, not building refineries, and not making other long-term inestments in oil production. This is because they understand that the prices don't match the realities of the oil industry and are driven up by the fears of ill-informed investors. They understand that, sooner or later, the oil price bubble is going to collapse, and oil prices will return to $30 a barrel or lower. In the mean time they're reaping record profits, Billions of dollars, and feeding the fear by publicly blaming it on supply and demand issues. Issues that, if serious, could be solved by investment. If the oil industry believed that these prices were justified, they would be pouring their profits into new refineries, into pumping oil from oil shale and oil sands. But there's something else here too. It has to do with the real reason we went into Iraq. Yes, it was for oil, not Iraqi oil, American oil. The oil industry certainly had the means to create the political turmoil in the Middle East: The Presidency of the United States. Bush and Cheyney's connections to American oil companies are well established, and the oil lobby is certainly powerful enough to have gotten them on the ticket in 2000. It should be clear to all Americans that we had no policy interests in Iraq, and perhaps the initial motivation for our current Mid-East intervention itself was caused or planned by the oil industry. You must certainly admit that September 11 was almost perfectly timed, just months after Bush's election(perhaps time to concieve of the operation) to define the entire presidency in terms of Middle East turmoil and oil. I'm not claiming that this was the case, but the circumstances fit perfectly. There is, in my mind, a real possibility that the entire foreign policy of the United States over the past six years has been crafted to create this price bubble, and put billions upon billions of dollars in the pockets of oil companies at the expense of trillions of taxpayers' dollars and thousands of lives.

[Tornado Joe]

There is, in my mind, a real possibility that the entire foreign policy of the United States over the past six years has been crafted to create this price bubble, and put billions upon billions of dollars in the pockets of oil companies at the expense of trillions of taxpayers' dollars and thousands of lives.[/b] Trillions??!! Perhaps it would have been cheaper had you just fullfilled my request for sharks with frickin' laser beams on their heads!

[Roller]

Originally posted by Belisarius+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Belisarius)</div> Yes, it was for oil, not Iraqi oil, American oil. The oil industry certainly had the means to create the political turmoil in the Middle East: The Presidency of the United States. Bush and Cheyney's connections to American oil companies are well established, and the oil lobby is certainly powerful enough to have gotten them on the ticket in 2000. It should be clear to all Americans that we had no policy interests in Iraq, and perhaps the initial motivation for our current Mid-East intervention itself was caused or planned by the oil industry. [/b] Well it does make a good conspiracy threory, but I doubt any leader (Bush included) would be stupid enough to invade a country with the purpose of driving up oil prices. High oil prices = inflationary pressures and the slowing of economic growth. Both of these factors can lead to a recession and even if they don't, the amount of headaches they'd cause America across all industries is not worth it. If Bush is as chummy with industry elites as everyone says he is he sure as hell wouldn't be trying to shaft them like that. The reason conflict in the Middle East is having such a big impact on the oil price is because of the huge demand from oil from the two developing powerhouses: China and India. China is demanding insane amounts of oil and seems to be willing to pay almost any price to secure it. China is building a crazy amount of powerstations - something like one every two weeks - trying to keep its industry in power, and even then many factories face rationed electricity, having to make do without two or three days a week. As a result many factories install their own generators, which happen to be diesel powered, so that they do not have to rely on rationed and expensive electricity. Whenever there is an outbreak of violence in the Middle East and a threat to oil supply the oil price goes up because there is an insane amount of very rich and powerful people demanding energy and who are seeking to secure a supply. <!--QuoteBegin-Belisarius They understand that, sooner or later, the oil price bubble is going to collapse, and oil prices will return to $30 a barrel or lower. No, unfortunately. I read a report that said the world's known oil supply is just about to reach peak, or approaching peak in the next few years. If this is true it won't be long before oil hits $100 or more. It is not the economy of the United States that is dictating the oil price.

[Umbrasquall]

Another theory? This one is pretty far out I'd have to say. Looks like it pretty much encompasses the 9/11 coverup conspiracy and the Iraq one.

[BeautifulDreamer]

A huge oil bubble??? PICS NAO! Anyways, yeah oil prices are terrible. Most people I know are riding bikes....