Originally Posted by Xei
I think the root of it is that at each stage you are saying 'you must punish me today therefore you cannot punish me today'; it's contradictory self-reference. As soon as you've established 'you cannot punish me today', the very argument supporting this fact fails, because the punishment happening today would now indeed be a surprise.
You might be right.
Originally Posted by Photolysis
1. The paradox does not actually make sense. If you're told you're going to be executed at noon on one of five days this week, then you could easily say that it's impossible to be surprised by the guard turning up on a certain day, because you knew it was very likely. It's like tossing a fair coin that can be either heads or tales, and being surprised if it turns up heads.
Unless by 'surprised' what is meant is that the probability of being executed today is less than 1.
Originally Posted by Photolysis
2. The paradox is self contradicting, because as Xei states, as soon as you make any claims like "you can't execute me today because I'm expecting it" executing the person on that day will indeed be a surprise.
I'm not saying this is invalid, it's probably somewhere near the root of the problem. But, in real life, if it's Friday and you're still alive, the conclusion isn't that you've escaped your surprise hanging. The conclusion is that you're going to be hung today, but it isn't going to be a surprise. And the paradox states that it's impossible to be surprised when you are hanged. In real life, it's true that on Friday you wouldn't be surprised. Does the same even hold true for thursday? It seems like it does. Wednesday? It seems like it doesn't, but I'm not sure why.
Originally Posted by Photolysis
3. The paradox moves the goalposts. If told straight away after the above sentence that you'll be executed on Friday then it would indeed be a surprise because the odds are, all things being equal, that the other 4 days would be more likely. Getting to Friday and claiming it is no longer a surprise through the process of elimination shifts the goalposts by taking advantage of the knowledge gained during the week.
I don't see how the goalposts are being shifted. There's no problem with taking advantage of the knowledge gained during the week when the hypothetical scenario involves already having lived through that week.
Originally Posted by apsinvo
I don't really see how the argument re the lack of surprise he would have received had he not been hung by noon on Thursday some how carrying back in time and meaning that no day will be a surprise therefore he can't get hung?
What if he isn't hung by noon on Wednesday? In real life, he would know that he'll be hung tomorrow with 100% certainty, on Thursday. Because he knows that the judge wouldn't wait until Friday, since then it wouldn't be a surprise. I don't know if that clarifies or confuses it.
Originally Posted by nrg
lets asume that it is thursday and the man is still alive If they hang him today it will sure be a suprise ( cause they can do it today or tomorow). I dont see how the probability could be 1. No paradox in my opinion.
No, on thursday it genuinely wouldn't be a surprise, not even if the situation were real. He knows that the judge wouldn't choose to hang him on Friday, since then it would not be a surprise. So, if it's Thursday, he knows his hanging is coming today. The same goes for Wednesday. For the reason above, he knows the judge cannot wait until Thursday, so on Wednesday he should know that he'll be hanged today.
Originally Posted by nrg
PS thinking out of the box : it would be the most suprizing to be sentenced on friday dont u think ? ( because its the least You expect )
In real life, if it's Friday and you aren't hanged yet, you know that you'll be hanged today, so it wouldn't be a surprise. You'd conclude that the judge simply made a mistake and did not surprise you. The paradox states that it's impossible to be surprised, not that it's impossible to be hanged. I think that's taking it too far. That's the problem I have with the the story in the comic posted, with that way of presenting the paradox.
The thought has occurred to me to simplify the issue. What if the judge told you that you are to be hanged either today or tomorrow, but it will be a surprise? Realistically, I think it is truly impossible to be surprised in this situation. The paradox works. If 'tomorrow' is reached and you haven't been executed yet, you know you'll be executed today and it will not be a surprise. So on the first day, realizing the above, you know you're going to be hanged today, and so it also won't be a surprise.
What if there are three days? The judge tells you that you will be executed either Wednesday, Thursday or Friday. That makes it a bit difficult. Do you know that you're going to be hanged on Wednesday, and therefore is it also impossible to be surprised?
Maybe the core of the issue is that people simply aren't going to think ahead. In the three-days situation, if the scenario were completely real, I would conclude that I would probably be hanged on either Wednesday or Thursday, without knowing which day. Although I think the judge would be likely to realize he can't sentence me on Friday and keep the surprise, and therefore not sentence me on Friday, I don't think he's going to have the sense to think ahead and realize he cannot sentence me on Thursday either for the same reason.
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