Thread: is there a 50/50 chance that this is an illusion or not real?

is there a 50/50 chance that this is an illusion or not real?

Your perception of 'our reality' is for the whole part a gross illusion. If you have a highly exalted expansion of consciousness temporarily through dedicated, stringent meditational practices, you will, at some point, understand this post.

Now you see why The Matrix is one of the greatest films ever. You can't prove to me that we're not all plugged in.

Thank goodness we have Hollywood to come up with such brilliant philosophical ideas.

That idea didn't come from Hollywood.

it seems like noone can understand this the way i do. it makes perfect sense to me. but its hard to explain.
i dont know if its because there is something i understand that you guys dont or because you guys understand something i dont.

Originally Posted by Qwer

it seems like noone can understand this the way i do. it makes perfect sense to me. but its hard to explain.
i dont know if its because there is something i understand that you guys dont or because you guys understand something i dont.

If you take a variable that has two expressions: A and B. It is possible that there is a 50/50 chance it'll express itself either as A or B; however, it's also possible that another unknown factor could influence its expression, and thus could be 60/40, 70/30, 1/99 etc. Without knowing that factor, we can't know the probability (though through continuous observation, say, with flipping a coin, you can reach a reasonable answer).

If you take a variable that has three expressions: A, B, and C. It is impossible that there's a 50/50/50 chance it'll express itself as either A, B, or C. I hope you can see that. Assuming equality of expression, it'd be 33.33/33.33/33.33; however, as above, given the possibility of other unknown factors involved, the probability could be: 1/1/98, 20/30/50 etc.

Now, you ask if reality is 'real', an illusion, a dream, a brain in a VAT etc -- I think from above you understand this cannot be a 50/50 chance. Furthermore, you've enumerated a finite amount of possible answers; however, given the possibilities are unknown, what's to say there aren't innumerable possibilities? If so, even assuming equality of expression, you'd have an infinitely small probability. As for the other possibility, we don't know the other unknown factors involved, and so it's quite nonsensical.

I may be chatting bollocks -- who knows *disappears into a dark cloud*

So the whole thread's conclusion is that this is reality because it's hard to access any possible answers as we have too little knowledge on it? Using dreams as a base, you can try dying and you'll know how much of an illusion this life we're living is now. But the biggest problem for that is you have no idea where you'll end up after you die in this realm.

Originally Posted by Wolfwood

If you take a variable that has two expressions: A and B. It is possible that there is a 50/50 chance it'll express itself either as A or B; however, it's also possible that another unknown factor could influence its expression, and thus could be 60/40, 70/30, 1/99 etc. Without knowing that factor, we can't know the probability (though through continuous observation, say, with flipping a coin, you can reach a reasonable answer).

If you take a variable that has three expressions: A, B, and C. It is impossible that there's a 50/50/50 chance it'll express itself as either A, B, or C. I hope you can see that. Assuming equality of expression, it'd be 33.33/33.33/33.33; however, as above, given the possibility of other unknown factors involved, the probability could be: 1/1/98, 20/30/50 etc.

Now, you ask if reality is 'real', an illusion, a dream, a brain in a VAT etc -- I think from above you understand this cannot be a 50/50 chance. Furthermore, you've enumerated a finite amount of possible answers; however, given the possibilities are unknown, what's to say there aren't innumerable possibilities? If so, even assuming equality of expression, you'd have an infinitely small probability. As for the other possibility, we don't know the other unknown factors involved, and so it's quite nonsensical.

I may be chatting bollocks -- who knows *disappears into a dark cloud*

i will try to explain better. i did not mean to select from an infinate number of possibilities.
i meant option A vs option B.
option A: reality acctualy is what we think it is or what the general belief of society is.
option B: reality is something else. any of the other examples. e.g. dream, brain in a vat.

and the thing is it is not like it hasnt happened yet, when talking about most other examples they are in the future tense, that is they have not happened and are not decided yet.
but one of option A or option B are true. witch one?
from what we know each has equal chance of being the (already) true answer.

here is an example:
A running race has allready happened between 2 people. Person A vs Person B. (this is like option A vs option B)
one persone is already the winner, but we do not know who (just like one answer is already true but we do not know witch one)
we have no other information for either of these.
from what we know and our current understanding they are both just as likely and unlikely as each other to be the winner or true answer.
and since it has already happened there can be no other factors.

Your post is flawed, you say "I did not mean to select from an infinite number of possibilities". Then you proceed to say "option B: reality is something else" which essentially is infinte. There are over 100 theories which state that we live in a simulation and none have any way of being assigned a probability.

Here is an example: I walk into a completely black room, I presume there is a box in there that is undetectably changing me into a frog. I have no evidence that there is a box or that I am changing into a frog so how could I produce a probability that ir is there. Secondly I know absolutely nothing of how the box operates so I cannot compare it to my knowledge to see how probable its existence is.

Qwer, if you're going to ask whether reality is exactly as we believe it to be or different in some capacity.... I'd wager 10k pounds that it's different in some way to how we currently understand it. Do you think I have a 50/50 chance of being correct?

Originally Posted by dutchraptor

Your post is flawed, you say "I did not mean to select from an infinite number of possibilities". Then you proceed to say "option B: reality is something else" which essentially is infinte. There are over 100 theories which state that we live in a simulation and none have any way of being assigned a probability.

Here is an example: I walk into a completely black room, I presume there is a box in there that is undetectably changing me into a frog. I have no evidence that there is a box or that I am changing into a frog so how could I produce a probability that ir is there. Secondly I know absolutely nothing of how the box operates so I cannot compare it to my knowledge to see how probable its existence is.

yes but its still Reality is as we think vs it is not

Originally Posted by Qwer

yes but its still Reality is as we think vs it is not

I suppose you're right, I guess theres a 50% chance that I am a god. Same goes for wolfwood and yourself. I bet there is even a 50% chance that Im a dog. Why did I ever learn about conventional probabilities, they're so limiting.

Originally Posted by dutchraptor

I suppose you're right, I guess theres a 50% chance that I am a god. Same goes for wolfwood and yourself. I bet there is even a 50% chance that Im a dog. Why did I ever learn about conventional probabilities, they're so limiting.

i guess you are never going to understand it the way i do and i the way you do.
but like i said before one of us obviously understands something the other does not.
i just thought i would give it one last shot at trying to explain what i mean and how i understand it, but it is to complex for me to explain.

Originally Posted by Qwer

yes but its still Reality is as we think vs it is not

Reality is different to how we currently understand it, for we do not have a theory of everything. So, I'll bet you my house that reality is different to how we think it is. Not a bad bet.... because it's 50/50, right? Bet, bet, bet. It doesn't matter whether we're in a dream, in the matrix, a brain in the vat, existing in a multiverse, innumerous dimensions, if we're fundamentally vibrating strings, or born from the unified field or whatever.... because you've classed those all under: different.

How about we do it in another way? Try finding reasons why our current reality is not real.

But I've personally felt I was detached from reality a couple of times, and I started wondering is there a possibility my body is a machine and I am looking at all of these from somewhere far far away.

Originally Posted by Wolfwood

Reality is different to how we currently understand it, for we do not have a theory of everything. So, I'll bet you my house that reality is different to how we think it is. Not a bad bet.... because it's 50/50, right? Bet, bet, bet.

technically yes you can say that,
but you know that that is not what i was trying to say.

Originally Posted by Carrot

How about we do it in another way? Try finding reasons why our current reality is not real.

But I've personally felt I was detached from reality a couple of times, and I started wondering is there a possibility my body is a machine and I am looking at all of these from somewhere far far away.

if you were being seriouse, could you please explain what this "detachment" felt like?
because i have felt something similar

Originally Posted by Qwer

if you were being seriouse, could you please explain what this "detachment" felt like?
because i have felt something similar

It happened on days when I was really tired. I was climbing the stairs and I was feeling I wasn't entirely the one making decisions to climb the stairs or I couldn't feel much about what I was doing. As I looked at things, I've got a feeling my real eyes are not in front of me, it's way further that that as though the eyes I had were acting as a screen. I bet science can explain why I feel like that.

Originally Posted by Carrot

It happened on days when I was really tired. I was climbing the stairs and I was feeling I wasn't entirely the one making decisions to climb the stairs or I couldn't feel much about what I was doing. As I looked at things, I've got a feeling my real eyes are not in front of me, it's way further that that as though the eyes I had were acting as a screen. I bet science can explain why I feel like that.

ok thanx,
sometimes when i am reading a book or looking at a computer screen it feels like i am half a meter to the right of were my body is. and i know that if i move it will stop so i stay still and try make it last as long as possible.

Originally Posted by Qwer

technically yes you can say that,
but you know that that is not what i was trying to say.

You are basically saying...

A dice has been rolled, and so the answer has been decided (past event).

You're given the question: Did the dice land on 1 or something different?


Through your reasoning, there's a 50/50 chance of being correct. So it doesn't matter what you choose. Whereas, I'd bet all my money on the latter answer: that it landed on something different.

Originally Posted by Wolfwood

You are basically saying...

A dice has been rolled, and so the answer has been decided (past event).

You're given the question: Did the dice land on 1 or something different?


Through your reasoning, there's a 50/50 chance of being correct. So it doesn't matter what you choose. Whereas, I'd bet all my money on the latter answer: that it landed on something different.

wether runner A loses because he 1) falls over 2) feels sic 3) is fat 4) has bad shoes 5) hasnt practiced enough. does not matter. because there are 5 ways runner A can lose doesnt mean its more likely than him to win.

Originally Posted by Qwer

wether runner A loses because he 1) falls over 2) feels sic 3) is fat 4) has bad shoes 5) hasnt practiced enough. does not matter. because there are 5 ways runner A can lose doesnt mean its more likely than him to win.

Yeah, but you're restricting it to two runners. There are more than two possibilities for the model of reality (known or unknown).


Thus, after a race, you could be asked: did this runner win (shown a card) or was it someone different? That's obviously a 50/50 chance. Why?

In this case, different refers to only one other possibility.

However, different when speaking of reality refers to countless other possibilities.... but for the sake of discussion let's say there are 10,000 possibilities for reality -- that is, different refers to 9,999 other possibilities.

Therefore, using your analogy, it'd be like a race with 10,000 runners. One of them wins, but we don't know who.

You're given a question: did this runner win (shown a card) or was it someone different?

Whilst it is a this or that question, assuming all other things equal, you'd have a 1/10,000 chance of being correct by saying: ' yes, it was this runner'. It's not necessarily 50/50 because you have two choices. You see?

Originally Posted by Wolfwood

Yeah, but you're restricting it to two runners. There are more than two possibilities for the model of reality (known or unknown).


Thus, after a race, you could be asked: did this runner win (shown a card) or was it someone different? That's obviously a 50/50 chance. Why?

In this case, different refers to only one other possibility.

However, different when speaking of reality refers to countless other possibilities.... but for the sake of discussion let's say there are 10,000 possibilities for reality -- that is, different refers to 9,999 other possibilities.

Therefore, using your analogy, it'd be like a race with 10,000 runners. One of them wins, but we don't know who.

You're given a question: did this runner win (shown a card) or was it someone different?

Whilst it is a this or that question, assuming all other things equal, you'd have a 1/10,000 chance of being correct by saying: ' yes, it was this runner'. It's not 50/50 because you have two choices.

yes i agree, but i think this is were i have trouble explaining what i mean.
what i mean is
option A: what we are experiencing is real, or resembles it, i understand all the ways we change our perception and stuff but the point is what we are percieving is a version of real.
option B: what we are percieving is not real, (well it sort of is, but not realy) it is collected in another manner. e.g. brain in a vat.

there is 2 possibilities, because its not saying how we gather this sense data from a "non real" place, but just wether we are or not.

do you kinda understand were im coming from??

Just because it's impossible to figure out exactly what the probability is, that doesn't automatically set it at 50/50.