Originally Posted by

**Xei**
No. If you try to assign probabilities to things you have no information about at all, you get inconsistent nonsense.

For instance: there is a box with a mystery object inside.

It may be an apple (and nothing else). It may not be. By your reasoning, we must assign a 50% probability to each of these possibilities, because we have absolutely zero information about what the criteria for choosing the object were.

It may also be a pear (and nothing else). And of course, it may not be. By the same reasoning, there is a 50% probability for each possibility.

In other words, there is a 50% probability that it's just an apple, and there's a 50% probability that it's just a pear. So there's a 50% + 50% = 100% probability that there's either just an apple, or just a pear in the box. Thus there is a 0% probability that there is anything else.

This is manifestly nonsense and demonstrates why assigning probabilities to situations with no parameters whatsoever is a meaningless absurdity which contradicts the concept of probability.

## Bookmarks