Probability vs Possibility, what is it better to believe in?
Is it better to focus on things which are most probably true, or to believe in things which make you happier? Or, to put it another way, is it better to strive for objective truth or functionality?
I've been thinking about the effect belief has on reality. If you're a magician, then you subscribe to the belief that your outer world reflects your inner world. In other words if you cultivate your inner world into something beautiful, your outer world has no choice but to fall into place. This belief has been propagated since Buddha. Napoleon Hill, author of the book "Think and Grow Rich," is essentially the father of the Law of Attraction as we know it today. But I'm not necessarily arguing in favor of law of attraction. I don't think it's necessary you believe in the law of attraction in order to take this argument seriously. All you have to agree on is that it's impossible for a mind to conceptualize exact reality. You are capable of nothing more than a translation of reality, something which is not true no matter what. But just because truth is out of your grasp doesn't mean you can't calculate probability in order to put statistical advantage in your favor. In other words, the results are always up to chance and never completely under your control, but your action is under your control and you can perform the actions that give you the best chance by ascertaining the highest probability.
For example, it's very improbable that the world will end on friday. You therefore have a greater advantage if you act as though the world will continue. The truth is out of your hands, and you cannot predict with any certainty that it will or will not end. But you can place a pretty sure bet that it won't. The odds are heavily in your favor.
And this same model can be applied to everything. You know nothing, but you can ascertain likelihood and make better decisions. Other than the decisions you make, what is actually real is irrelevant. If you can accept that claim, then the question becomes obvious. Beliefs don't go away, after all, just because you realize they're never exactly true. So is it more important to invest your beliefs in the most accurate version of reality you can, or to invest your beliefs in possibilities that make you happier? If you buy into Law of Attraction, the answer is obviously the latter because if you invest belief into happier things you'll get a happier life. However, if you do not invest belief in Law of Attraction, the question remains, Why Live in the Lack?
Let's look at another example. Let's say you aspire for a particular job, but there's thousands of candidates for it and you're simply not very likely to get it. If you get your hopes up, you're gearing for disappointment. But if you really, really want the job then the possibility alone will fill you with happiness. So why not enjoy the possibility? It has to go someone, and it could be you. You don't know the future, anything could happen. But you'll feel a lot better in the present if you invest more belief in the possibility rather than limiting yourself only to what is probable. Probability is for action. There's no reason to short yourself an ounce of happiness now simply because the future is uncertain.