Thread: December 21, 2012.

Originally Posted by Xaqaria

The idea that it is indeed possible for this to happen is based on things like moore's law and the findings of Raymond Kurzweil and other futurists that electronic technology and even all of human progress advances at an exponential or even a double exponential rate. The argument is that much of the progress of the last few decades has been artificially stunted through price fixing and manufactured scarcity, among other forms of limiting the advancement of technology. Even with these factors though, moore's law is still apparent in electronics and the trend of progress in all or most areas of human advancement has kept close to an exponential growth rate.

As Xei pointed out, other hallmarks of human progress have taken progressively longer periods of time to come about as you go back through history. It makes sense to believe that they will continue to take less and less time.

Also, the catastrophic predictions regarding 2012 could be accounted for through what you are saying, that a year is such a short amount of time for the amount of change that is being predicted. It is possible that any catastrophe will stem from the human race finally losing its grasp on the ability to keep up with its own progress.

I understand the exponential time scales, but if you simply follow the exponential law itself, you will see that paradigm shifts on the order of the industrial revolution should be taking at least a decade to happen around 2012, not a year. Even Kurzweil, who I agree with by on many topics by the way, would not predict anything substantial for 2012. He predicts the big year to be 2045, and even then, he doesn't say something stupid like "everything will change in 2045". He would say that the changes simply accumulate over many decades. He just picked 2045 as the year beyond which he can't forecast, NOT that everything will happen in one year.

So what I'm saying is, yes, there will come a time when paradigm shifts are only a year apart. But there is no empirical reason to think that it will happen so soon. Even your own exponential model does not predict such rapid changes for quite some time. Remember, exponentials, even double exponentials, are NOT hyperbolic. They do not diverge. They are uniformly continuous.

I think that if 2012 wasn't wrapped in such nonsense mysticism, you would all see how ridiculous it is to claim that the world will be unrecognizable just 46 months from now.

Originally Posted by esfx

I understand the exponential time scales, but if you simply follow the exponential law itself, you will see that paradigm shifts on the order of the industrial revolution should be taking at least a decade to happen around 2012, not a year. Even Kurzweil, who I agree with by on many topics by the way, would not predict anything substantial for 2012. He predicts the big year to be 2045, and even then, he doesn't say something stupid like "everything will change in 2045". He would say that the changes simply accumulate over many decades. He just picked 2045 as the year beyond which he can't forecast, NOT that everything will happen in one year.

So what I'm saying is, yes, there will come a time when paradigm shifts are only a year apart. But there is no empirical reason to think that it will happen so soon. Even your own exponential model does not predict such rapid changes for quite some time. Remember, exponentials, even double exponentials, are NOT hyperbolic. They do not diverge. They are uniformly continuous.

I think that if 2012 wasn't wrapped in such nonsense mysticism, you would all see how ridiculous it is to claim that the world will be unrecognizable just 46 months from now.

Kurzweil bases his predictions off of technological advancement alone, while we currently have several natural trends coming to a head all at once. It is my understanding that it is really impossible to tell how the culmination of all of these trends will effect each other. I am usually not one to make my stance on either side of any predictions, although I don't pay much attention to most of them. The reasons why I find myself more interested in this one in particular is for just a couple pretty profound reasons.

A) The Mayans managed to predict the exact day of a winter solstice 3000 years ahead of time.
B) NASA has openly admitted to substantial fears of there being a "problematic weakening" of the Earth's magnetic field culminating in 2012.

On top of those, there is the possibility of a technological singularity, which could come well before Kurzweil predicts, especially since he doesn't take into account the ramifications of manufactured scarcity and the fact that technology may (and actually probably is) a lot farther along than the average citizen knows.

Not to mention the fact that the global economic crisis and the possibility of a drastic climate change (whether we are affecting it or not) are both happening at a rather coincidental time in history.

I'd also like to point out that 2012 is a 'landmark' but that doesn't necessarily mean that everything is all going to change right on december 12th, or even all in that year. It may be that 2012 is the apex of a signifigant curve of human advancement, and that the changes that are happening will become readily apparent on that date (or in that year).

Originally Posted by SKA

God I hate New Age conspiracy theorists. How can they not see they're the Next Yehova witnesses with their doom-preaching?

Nope, sorry. I think scientologists are still one step ahead of the New Ager's in the bullshit department.

I would call myself more a fan of 2012 (Timewave Zero, specifically) than a believer. It would be sweet to discover that consciousness is entrained with celestial events and our illusions can be dispelled by a natural phenomenon.

Then again, I had a vision ten years ago that the transition would still be incomplete and civilization untidy when I shuffle off this mortal coil four-ish years from now.

Not that I take such things too seriously

Originally Posted by Xaqaria

Kurzweil bases his predictions off of technological advancement alone, while we currently have several natural trends coming to a head all at once. It is my understanding that it is really impossible to tell how the culmination of all of these trends will effect each other. I am usually not one to make my stance on either side of any predictions, although I don't pay much attention to most of them. The reasons why I find myself more interested in this one in particular is for just a couple pretty profound reasons.

A) The Mayans managed to predict the exact day of a winter solstice 3000 years ahead of time.
B) NASA has openly admitted to substantial fears of there being a "problematic weakening" of the Earth's magnetic field culminating in 2012.

On top of those, there is the possibility of a technological singularity, which could come well before Kurzweil predicts, especially since he doesn't take into account the ramifications of manufactured scarcity and the fact that technology may (and actually probably is) a lot farther along than the average citizen knows.

Not to mention the fact that the global economic crisis and the possibility of a drastic climate change (whether we are affecting it or not) are both happening at a rather coincidental time in history.

I'd also like to point out that 2012 is a 'landmark' but that doesn't necessarily mean that everything is all going to change right on december 12th, or even all in that year. It may be that 2012 is the apex of a signifigant curve of human advancement, and that the changes that are happening will become readily apparent on that date (or in that year).

This is a conversation ender. We will see who's right.

This is a conversation ender.

Aww... c'mon man - don't put this to bed so quick.

Well, I have just read that last post (can't remember when I posted last in here)- so if I cover something that was already covered earlier in this thread you may flog me (I prefer to be wearing leather and a gague ball at the time )

no, seriously - from what I've gathered through my readings online as well as in books (and correlating those 'theories' with current events) I am confident that we are not necessarily looking at "the end of the world" - but rather, the end of a way of existance or thought.

The Mayans managed to predict the exact day of a winter solstice 3000 years ahead of time.

well yeah, that is the most common intepretation of their writtings, however, there are those (johnathan Calleman) who have looked deeper into their records (which, by the way, have been mostly destroyed by the bible beating spaniards) and has decifered the date of the event in October (... the 12th? I think).

Sucks that I can't recall the science behind this. I'm actually under the influence of 3 glasses of wine right now - thought not 'drunk', it's difficult to think at the moment.

So, just saying. I've since put the whole Mayan thing aside for the moment and moved onto finding answers for myself - very much how I ended up into lucid dreaming. We can discuss till we're blue in the face, and even though none of us have a crystal ball, that discussion should never end. There is no journey without a ride.

Originally Posted by esfx

The industrial revolution took a couple of generations to happen. You're talking about a single year, namely 2012. It's unreasonable to expect something of the magnitude of the industrial revolution to happen over such a ridiculously short time span.

Those of us who don't look at 2012 as the end also don't look at December 21, 2012 as the day, just the climax and the beginning of something new.

You are not going to wake up Dec 21 2012 in a different world, people are changing today, tomorrow and after Dec 21, more people will start to realize something special about them.

So, just saying. I've since put the whole Mayan thing aside for the moment and moved onto finding answers for myself - very much how I ended up into lucid dreaming. We can discuss till we're blue in the face, and even though none of us have a crystal ball, that discussion should never end. There is no journey without a ride.

Speak for yourself.

I understand the exponential time scales, but if you simply follow the exponential law itself, you will see that paradigm shifts on the order of the industrial revolution should be taking at least a decade to happen around 2012, not a year. Even Kurzweil, who I agree with by on many topics by the way, would not predict anything substantial for 2012. He predicts the big year to be 2045, and even then, he doesn't say something stupid like "everything will change in 2045". He would say that the changes simply accumulate over many decades. He just picked 2045 as the year beyond which he can't forecast, NOT that everything will happen in one year.

So what I'm saying is, yes, there will come a time when paradigm shifts are only a year apart. But there is no empirical reason to think that it will happen so soon. Even your own exponential model does not predict such rapid changes for quite some time. Remember, exponentials, even double exponentials, are NOT hyperbolic. They do not diverge. They are uniformly continuous.

I think that if 2012 wasn't wrapped in such nonsense mysticism, you would all see how ridiculous it is to claim that the world will be unrecognizable just 46 months from now.

As far as I can tell, calling it exponential is actually incorrect anyway. It can't really be modelled by an equation like T = Ae^kt... that suggests a doubling technological capability every x years, which isn't what has happened over history; what has happened over history is a 'paradigm shift' in increasingly short time spans, so the exponentiation is actually occuring with regards to the time variable, inversely, which is different from exponential growth. The observed trend is actually more asymptotic (in the same way that a logarithmic curve tends to the y axis); but of course, that's just a model, and is clearly physically impossible...

Kurzweil bases his predictions off of technological advancement alone, while we currently have several natural trends coming to a head all at once. It is my understanding that it is really impossible to tell how the culmination of all of these trends will effect each other. I am usually not one to make my stance on either side of any predictions, although I don't pay much attention to most of them. The reasons why I find myself more interested in this one in particular is for just a couple pretty profound reasons.

A) The Mayans managed to predict the exact day of a winter solstice 3000 years ahead of time.
B) NASA has openly admitted to substantial fears of there being a "problematic weakening" of the Earth's magnetic field culminating in 2012.

On top of those, there is the possibility of a technological singularity, which could come well before Kurzweil predicts, especially since he doesn't take into account the ramifications of manufactured scarcity and the fact that technology may (and actually probably is) a lot farther along than the average citizen knows.

Not to mention the fact that the global economic crisis and the possibility of a drastic climate change (whether we are affecting it or not) are both happening at a rather coincidental time in history.

I'd also like to point out that 2012 is a 'landmark' but that doesn't necessarily mean that everything is all going to change right on december 12th, or even all in that year. It may be that 2012 is the apex of a signifigant curve of human advancement, and that the changes that are happening will become readily apparent on that date (or in that year).

I don't think there's any reason to suspect 2012 any more than any other year. There are plenty other random years you could designate as being 'special' by some arbitrary criterium... for example, it's almost 2048, which is a pretty special number, 2^11.

And you have to admit that those 'profound reasons' are a load of New Age gaga. I Googled both of them; the magnetic field thing is simply the sun's polarity swapping around. It last did this in 2001. And even then; why on Earth would a magnetic field induce a technological singularity? And I didn't get any results at all on Google for the winter solstice thing. The Mayans were just a ancient civilisation like any other, and much much less knowledgeable than we are in modern times.

Originally Posted by Xei

As far as I can tell, calling it exponential is actually incorrect anyway. It can't really be modelled by an equation like T = Ae^kt... that suggests a doubling technological capability every x years, which isn't what has happened over history; what has happened over history is a 'paradigm shift' in increasingly short time spans, so the exponentiation is actually occuring with regards to the time variable, inversely, which is different from exponential growth. The observed trend is actually more asymptotic (in the same way that a logarithmic curve tends to the y axis); but of course, that's just a model, and is clearly physically impossible...

I don't think there's any reason to suspect 2012 any more than any other year. There are plenty other random years you could designate as being 'special' by some arbitrary criterium... for example, it's almost 2048, which is a pretty special number, 2^11.

And you have to admit that those 'profound reasons' are a load of New Age gaga. I Googled both of them; the magnetic field thing is simply the sun's polarity swapping around. It last did this in 2001. And even then; why on Earth would a magnetic field induce a technological singularity? And I didn't get any results at all on Google for the winter solstice thing. The Mayans were just a ancient civilisation like any other, and much much less knowledgeable than we are in modern times.

Honestly that last bit is just ignorance, because much information and knowledge has been forever lost through the multiple conquers, destruction of entire civilizations, etc..

Just such an arrogant attitude, to think we are so much more knowledgeable than our ancestors.. Yes many things have probably been learned by us that they didn't know.. But ancient civilizations, especially the Mayans, the Egyptians had a good understanding of the stars and their patterns over thousands of years...
And the was it the Greeks who first used aqueducts, etc...

Their is much technology and knowledge that was invented and used by ancient civilizations and much has been lost or destroyed in the shuffle of the ages.

More knowledgeable in certain areas yes, more knowledgeable in general I believe that is up for discussion.

Understanding of the stars? They thought stars were flaming chariots and other such stories. That's hardly 'understanding'. They observed how they changed throughout the year and that was pretty much it - observation. Looking at shiny things. It wasn't until Gallileo and the like that we began to get any understanding at all.

The scientific method - the only realistic way to gain knowledge - only really caught on a few centuries ago, way after the ancient civilisations.

The only exception I can think of would be the Greeks and their studies of geometry, but really that was all trivial, and we know it all nowadays anyway, and far far more.

I suppose it should be pointed out that I am talking about knowledge of a civilisation, not individuals; it is of course a well known Western phenomenon that the majority of a population have very little advanced knowledge at all.

I'd like to hear of any subjects about which any ancient civilisation had more knowledge than we do now.

Originally Posted by Xei

Understanding of the stars? They thought stars were flaming chariots and other such stories. That's hardly 'understanding'. They observed how they changed throughout the year and that was pretty much it - observation. Looking at shiny things. It wasn't until Gallileo and the like that we began to get any understanding at all.

The scientific method - the only realistic way to gain knowledge - only really caught on a few centuries ago, way after the ancient civilisations.

The only exception I can think of would be the Greeks and their studies of geometry, but really that was all trivial, and we know it all nowadays anyway, and far far more.

I suppose it should be pointed out that I am talking about knowledge of a civilisation, not individuals; it is of course a well known Western phenomenon that the majority of a population have very little advanced knowledge at all.

I'd like to hear of any subjects about which any ancient civilisation had more knowledge than we do now.

The mythology is obviously incorrect, but they were stories to describe. Usually with a deeper meaning, not a literal beast carrying it. I was more talking about certain civilizations ability to predict solstices thousands of years in advance.


And the knowledge to build a pyramid without the use of modern day techniques.. And a building able to withstand thousands upon thousands of years.. That is knowledge in power.

We don't even understand half of what ancient civilizations knew, because it's slipped through the cracks of time.

I think we are just as knowledgeable as they were in ancient times, albeit in different ways and different avenues.

The way you put it, you forget that all the finding of our ancestors and ancient civilizations helped us get to where we are today. Without their knowledge of certain things, our knowledge of things would have been hindered. And in that respect, I see our knowledge as equal. Ours has just progressed in certain fields, which is obviously bound to happen.. Except when events like the Dark Ages, Conquests, etc.. set us back..

We don't know all the knowledge long defunct civilizations had, it's lost in the fires, the destruction, and in translation.

Without their accumulated knowledge, our current and recent generations would have nothing to build off of.

Originally Posted by Xei

I don't think there's any reason to suspect 2012 any more than any other year. There are plenty other random years you could designate as being 'special' by some arbitrary criterium... for example, it's almost 2048, which is a pretty special number, 2^11.

And you have to admit that those 'profound reasons' are a load of New Age gaga. I Googled both of them; the magnetic field thing is simply the sun's polarity swapping around. It last did this in 2001. And even then; why on Earth would a magnetic field induce a technological singularity? And I didn't get any results at all on Google for the winter solstice thing. The Mayans were just a ancient civilisation like any other, and much much less knowledgeable than we are in modern times.

I'm with you on this. Conspiracy theories such as this are not new; apparently there have been many predicted "end times" - on which nothing significant actually happened. As Guerilla said, the 21/12/2012 would probably just be like another normal day.

It really is quite obviously a human invention that is "specially" created and melodramatic. Seriously, what could happen on the 12th month - December the 21st in 2012? Will it also occur at 12 minutes past 12 in the morning? As a prediction, it is just dumb.


As "astral realms" were mentioned earlier, and I'd like to add that this 2012 prediction probably comes from "there." According to my research, the astral realm is a depiction of the possible proclivities and dimensions of a level of consciousness.

It is the realm that is "below" the celestial realm (heavenly, euphoric, loving, angelic, ecstatic) and is often associated with people who have denied God, work supernatural magic, do psychic "channelings" and speak to others on "the other side." As most of it has nothing to do with the higher celestial realms and God, it also serves as a circus for the "new-agers" and a lot of the spiritual information is contaminated with glamorized and seductive teacher-titles, instructions, mysteries, card games, crystals, "aura photos" and "secrets." As this is nothing like the "celestial realms", I would say it is holds less truth and integrity, and therefore is not actually of higher "vibration" of consciousness, but merely of a different dimension of Reality.

The astral is known to hold little truth and can serve for good and the bad. Now I don't want to mention this to bring up confusion or make matters more complicated, but for all we know this conspiracy could be a product of that realm and could serve as an unconscious distraction for a great deal of society, heavy within the collective consciousness of mankind.

I'll leave it there, and overall I don't think this is anything serious to ponder. Similarly, don't worry if there is a global rumor that multicolored aliens will come and visit everybody in the year 2222 on the 22nd of January (apart from the fact you may not be alive anyway).

Originally Posted by esfx

I think that if 2012 wasn't wrapped in such nonsense mysticism, you would all see how ridiculous it is to claim that the world will be unrecognizable just 46 months from now.

Who said it has to begin and end in 2012? That's just what people say.

I certainly would'nt be as bold to claim that I know whether or not an event may happen in 2012 that could change things inalterably.

Originally Posted by DeathCell

The mythology is obviously incorrect, but they were stories to describe. Usually with a deeper meaning, not a literal beast carrying it. I was more talking about certain civilizations ability to predict solstices thousands of years in advance.

How is that supposed to be even remotely impressive? Nowadays we can predict solstices millions of years ahead of time, and on top of that we know infinitely more about the nature of planets, stars and the universe. I don't see how a rational person can even make this comparison.

Originally Posted by DeathCell

And the knowledge to build a pyramid without the use of modern day techniques.. And a building able to withstand thousands upon thousands of years.. That is knowledge in power.

The ancient pyramids were little more than decorative piles of dirt. Look at any one, individually, and the requisite knowledge is quite small. For example, the great pyramid of Giza required knowledge of right angles and plumb-bobs.

And again, compare this to today's pinnacle of height construction, the Burj Dubai, and I cannot begin to fathom a comparison.

Originally Posted by DeathCell

We don't even understand half of what ancient civilizations knew, because it's slipped through the cracks of time.

I think we are just as knowledgeable as they were in ancient times, albeit in different ways and different avenues.

Then you must bring up epistemology, which you don't want to do. Epistemology tells us that knowledge is something that has to be at least believed, and correct. Mythology is not knowledge.

Originally Posted by DeathCell

Without their accumulated knowledge, our current and recent generations would have nothing to build off of.

Actually, it could be argued that all of our knowledge today can be traced back only 1 or 2 thousand years, except for agriculture and some animal husbandry.

I have shut down this topic on a few forums

Here is my arguement for this, copy-pasted from another post of mine:

Well... the end of the world in 2012 was a dominently pagan theory. It was made before the year of Jesus Christ by the venus and sun god cultists of south america and africa. Over the years, varies pagan cults and religions, like, sun god, venus, mars, etc. all took on and developed this theory. If you say you have no faith and believe in the end in 2012, your non-faith is wavering, and you are slowly becoming a pagan.

In a nutshell, if you believe the world will end in 2012, you are becoming an ancient pagan cultist.

Originally Posted by really

It really is quite obviously a human invention that is "specially" created and melodramatic. Seriously, what could happen on the 12th month - December the 21st in 2012? Will it also occur at 12 minutes past 12 in the morning? As a prediction, it is just dumb.

The 2012 date has nothing to do with the Gregorian calendar. It's the end of the current Long Count, a 5000+ year cycle of the Mesoamerican calendar system refined by the Mayans, essentially an uber-Millenium. The significance of the start date, August 11 (or possibly 13th) of 3114 B.C. by our calendar, is unknown, though it seems to correspond to when the Mayans' ancestors were 'given' writing and the calendar system. Whether it's significant (or the calendar makers had any idea) that the end occurs on a solstice, and a solstice when the Sun and Earth will be aligned with the heart of the Milky Way within the galactic plane (as we are for about 1000 out of the 26,000-odd winter solstices of a precessional cycle) is likewise unknown.

At any rate, it's a fascinating synchronicity that the turn of one of our earliest and perhaps our most far-seeing calendar system will find the clock hands standing at twelve, so to speak, in both the revolution and precession of the Earth.

Originally Posted by esfx

How is that supposed to be even remotely impressive? Nowadays we can predict solstices millions of years ahead of time, and on top of that we know infinitely more about the nature of planets, stars and the universe. I don't see how a rational person can even make this comparison.



The ancient pyramids were little more than decorative piles of dirt. Look at any one, individually, and the requisite knowledge is quite small. For example, the great pyramid of Giza required knowledge of right angles and plumb-bobs.

And again, compare this to today's pinnacle of height construction, the Burj Dubai, and I cannot begin to fathom a comparison.



Then you must bring up epistemology, which you don't want to do. Epistemology tells us that knowledge is something that has to be at least believed, and correct. Mythology is not knowledge.



Actually, it could be argued that all of our knowledge today can be traced back only 1 or 2 thousand years, except for agriculture and some animal husbandry.

Ancient pyramids are nothing more than rocks in dirt... Ignorance and lack of respect to people who lived before you..

It's just the problem that always happens, every new generation thinks they are the best. Knowledge is not a contest.

I never claimed mythology was knowledge, so maybe you should read before you assume things out of thin air.

The fact that ancient people understood the stars precession, to coordinate it enough to point on the exact day of the solstice.. Without the use of telescopes, computers, etc.. is amazing in my opinion..

Obviously, the technology we have today blinds you to the possibility that they had more knowledge than us in some topics. And as I've already said, mans unconquerable thirst to re-write history and destroy the remnants of civilizations that they conquered explains very simply the reason why so much knowledge has been lost.

Originally Posted by Geeome

Well... the end of the world in 2012 was a dominently pagan theory. It was made before the year of Jesus Christ by the venus and sun god cultists of south america and africa. Over the years, varies pagan cults and religions, like, sun god, venus, mars, etc. all took on and developed this theory. If you say you have no faith and believe in the end in 2012, your non-faith is wavering, and you are slowly becoming a pagan.

Um, what alternate-history timeline are you posting from? I suspect one where Her Majesty's Royal Brain was preserved using advances in steam power and suppressed alchemical research, postponing the end of the Victorian Age indefinitely.

Originally Posted by esfx

This is a conversation ender. We will see who's right.

I guess we will. Either way, I will be neither right nor wrong because I haven't made a stance on the subject at all, except to say that it interests me.

Originally Posted by DeathCell

The fact that ancient people understood the stars precession, to coordinate it enough to point on the exact day of the solstice.. Without the use of telescopes, computers, etc.. is amazing in my opinion..

They didn't understand precession at all. They saw a cycle and recorded it. Understanding precession means understanding gravity and angular momentum, in the mathematical sense. And that requires calculus.

Originally Posted by DeathCell

Obviously, the technology we have today blinds you to the possibility that they had more knowledge than us in some topics.

Bullshit. Name one thing.

Originally Posted by Xaqaria

I guess we will. Either way, I will be neither right nor wrong because I haven't made a stance on the subject at all, except to say that it interests me.

So now you're no longer claiming that 2012 will be so significant that almost everyone will immediately recognize this fact? Yes or no?

Obviously, the technology we have today blinds you to the possibility that they had more knowledge than us in some topics. And as I've already said, mans unconquerable thirst to re-write history and destroy the remnants of civilizations that they conquered explains very simply the reason why so much knowledge has been lost.

Why do you believe this so strongly? Why are you so keen to diminish the accomplishments of this generation? Do you buy into the Mayan New Age nonsense or something?

I just want an example of something these people had knowledge about which we don't.

By the way, it is possible to name the thing without going into detail. For example, if you could prove that the Mayans had advanced nanotechnology, that would suffice. You can't use the argument "well we don't know about it, so I can't name it".

Let's come back to this thread on the day after the big day. It's less than four years away. This thread will probably still exist then... maybe unless our reality has warped us to the alternate realm on the other side.

Originally Posted by Universal Mind

Let's come back to this thread on the day after the big day. It's less than four years away. This thread will probably still exist then... maybe unless our reality has warped us to the alternate realm on the other side.

Yes sir!