Coping with Peak Oil and the Decline of Industrial Civilization
It has been well established that we have, or soon will, reach the peak of oil production. Production of other fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas will also peak in the coming decades, as will production of Uranium. No existing alternative can even begin to make up for the loss of cheap oil and we have likely gone beyond the point at which any such alternative could be feasibly introduced as a full substitute, because as oil rapidly becomes more expensive, the infrastructure that would allow for the large scale implementation of such a substitute will break down. It is possible that we are not yet beyond the point of no return, but, excluding some last minute miracle, peak oil will lead to a tremendous scaling back of all economic activity on this planet.
Most troubling, perhaps, is the inevitable decline of our petroleum-based agricultural and food distribution system. In America, the average individual uses the equivalent of 100 human slaves working year-round worth of petroleum-based energy to feed himself each year. The incredible boon of petroleum to agriculture has allowed the Human population to more than triple of the past century. By calculations I have seen, the Earth's arable land can sustain a population of around 1 billion people without petroleum-based agriculture. This number assumes that most people have shifted to a vegitarian diet and work as peasant farmers. These calculations could be off, but nevertheless it's clear that over the next century the human population will have to decrease by several billion people, probably as fast as it increased in the last century.
The question then is what we should begin doing now to ensure that this shift occurs with as little human suffering as possible.
If we had sensible leadership we would begin rebuilding our infrastructure for a post-oil world. Stockpiling fertilizers rich in phosphorus, calcium, and the micronutrients in areas with a large amount of arable land. Nitrogen can be replenished by planting legumes which will be essential for protein intake anyway. Populations of working animals can be replenished. Research into alternative crops and better GMO can be conducted. Agricultural hand-tools should be stockpiled, along with parts for machines like bicycles, windmills, and other oil-independent machinery that would assist in production. Relevant information about agriculture, plant pathology, home industry, and other relevant topics should be distributed. A strict one-child policy should be enforced. Basic medical supplies should be produced and stockpiled. Efforts should be undertaken to allow the maintenance of hydroelectric power and other alternative sources of electricity after the oil economy breaks down. A non-fossil fuels based transportation infrastructure should be developed. Eventually a large number of villages should be built and a population shift should begin out of the cities and back onto the land.
The sooner these and other measures are taken, the smoother the transition will be. There is no question that several billion people must die before the end, but we at least have a chance in countries with a great ammount of arable land compared to population to slow the population decline down enough that most of the decline can be achieved through decreased fertility and increased mortality due to the end of the modern medical system. If things are done right, a great deal of famine can be avoided and much of the knowledge and technology our civilization has attained over the past century can be preserved and higher levels of social organization can be maintained. This could give our species a chance to make further advancements and perhaps one day claw our way back up using a different engery source. Otherwise the irreversible depletion of fossil fuels will doom humanity to an agricultural subsistence for the rest of its time on Earth.
I encourage you all to do more extensive research on this topic. There are ample resources all over the internet discussing this. I encourage you to think critically when reviewing this information, as the human tendency not to believe unpleasant truths has produced many denials and rationalizations on this subject. Some even cling to the absurd belief that oil is replenished through abiotic geological processes, that we will always be able to find more oil, or that alternative fuel X is going to replace oil. When thinking about alternative fuels ask yourself: Can this be scaled up? Can this function without petroleum-based inputs? Can it be used as fuel for vehicles? Are the net energy returns comparable to oil? I think you will find there are no silver bullets. Also be careful about the fallacy of "scientists at our oil company say peak oil won't come until 2030 so you have nothing to worry about", because regardless of when peak oil comes, it will come. A later date for peak oil only gives us more time to make the necessary preparations. It is important for us to understand what lies in store for us so we can work together to prepare ourselves for what is coming.
