1. .5 |
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This'll kill you. |
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1. .5 |
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Previously PhilosopherStoned
The trick is that 2. is ambiguous. It could be 1/2 or 1/3. |
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I get it now. Cool. |
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Previously PhilosopherStoned
198.726% of people will not realize that this percentage is impossible given what we are measuring. If you enjoy eating Monterey Jack cheese, put this in your sig and add 3^4i to the percentage listed.
1. 1/2 |
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Last edited by Photolysis; 09-08-2009 at 05:10 PM.
50/50, for both. Age has no relevance to what the gender of the second child would be. |
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Last edited by Invader; 09-08-2009 at 10:34 AM.
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Last edited by Photolysis; 09-08-2009 at 05:10 PM.
This is a pure mathematical problem. I mean in real life why would you only look at one child in the first place? Just look at both. It's not a real problem, it's just an example of a mathematical paradox. |
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The 1/3 interpretation works like this: |
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Yes exactly. |
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Having thought about it some more, it seems you're right Xei and co. |
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Last edited by Photolysis; 09-08-2009 at 05:12 PM.
If you only look at the second child, then both are 50%. Even if you look at the three possibilities, if you remove a girl from each then its 50%. |
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but you can't remove the second boy because it represents a unique state of the system under consideration. You're just translating the one interpretation into the other. |
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Previously PhilosopherStoned
If you know for a fact, that one is a girl then you are only looking at the second child. The second child only has two choices, either being a girl or a boy. There is no third choice when you look at it that, ever. |
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Maybe you can empathise a little more with those mathematicians now, eh? |
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Think of it like this. If you have every pair of siblings in the world such that one of them is a girl gathered for you to look at all at once, you will see that 1/3 of them are m-f, 1/3 of them are f-m and 1/3 are f-f. |
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Previously PhilosopherStoned
198.726% of people will not realize that this percentage is impossible given what we are measuring. If you enjoy eating Monterey Jack cheese, put this in your sig and add 3^4i to the percentage listed.
I went ahead and proved the 1/3rd probability for scenario 2 via the use of a random number generator, simple text editing, and a word counter. Anyone else can repeat what I've done exactly with similar results. |
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Last edited by Invader; 09-09-2009 at 07:54 PM.
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Previously PhilosopherStoned
I think that I've figured out the fundamental difference between the two interpretations of the second question and what makes the two questions so different. |
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Previously PhilosopherStoned
Yeah that sounds about right. |
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