Thread: How observant are you really - Debate away

Oh I love the TV one heh. Maybe it should be a memory test. Trying to remeber back when I was 5 and actually had a TV with a dial on it instead of a remote. And even then it was like a 10 year old TV.

Originally Posted by ataraxis

Xei, you're being too technical and scientific here. As I think Mark Twain put it (something like this) "It's not what you don't know that gets you, but what you think you know but just aint so" or something like that. You can't apply probability to something like this, because she wasn't choosing randomly. She *thought* she knew the answers, but picked the wrong ones.

Get it?

Sorry for sounding horribly rude but you're just completely wrong.

I was saying what I said in a half joking way, but I'm afraid applying statistics here is completely valid, even if I wasn't entirely serious about it.

I think I'm right in saying that there were no trick questions there; if you guess, there is a 1/3 chance of getting the answer correct. There is no bias towards incorrect answers.

Therefore, the chances of anybody with no knowledge of the questions who just picked random answers (ie guesses) is (2/3)^25, which is 0.0000396.

And therefore, only one in 25000 of the very least informed people (ie those who don't have a clue about a single one of those questions) will get 0, so it's safe to say that anybody who's claiming to have gotten 0 is very likely not really telling the truth.

Probability isn't suddenly invalid just because somebody 'thinks they are correct'... mathematics really couldn't give a toss.

err, you obviously dont get what I'm saying here. Say that Wendylove gave a 1 question test, the question was
"How many states are there in the US"
A) 49
B) 50
C) 124

Of course, SHE would say that its 49, because Texas isn't a state, of course.
So by the logic you are presenting, if 99 people took the test, 33 would get a 100, the rest would fail. Now, this is obviosuly untrue. Most people would say B, 50, so they would get it wrong.

So people can easily get a 0. If they are guessing, as you said, there is a very small chance of them getting a 0. But most people would choose, but choose wrong.

Basically, Xie, probability like that only applies when each answer has an equal chance of being picked. In your "random guessing" example, yes, each answer has an equal chance. However, when there is a universal inclination to pick one answer, (for example, everyone 'knows' that there are 50 states, but in this example test that is the wrong answer), then the balance is greatly shifted and your estimated probability of getting a 0 is 'completely wrong'

I got 21 / 25 on my first try. All of them right on my second (obviously I just remembered all of the right answers. :p). I missed the hot dog bun one. In Canada there are twelve per bag, not eight. Some of them I definitely would not have known though, like the TV one, so it's not my fault.

Originally Posted by ataraxis

err, you obviously dont get what I'm saying here. Say that Wendylove gave a 1 question test, the question was
"How many states are there in the US"
A) 49
B) 50
C) 124

Of course, SHE would say that its 49, because Texas isn't a state, of course.
So by the logic you are presenting, if 99 people took the test, 33 would get a 100, the rest would fail. Now, this is obviosuly untrue. Most people would say B, 50, so they would get it wrong.

So people can easily get a 0. If they are guessing, as you said, there is a very small chance of them getting a 0. But most people would choose, but choose wrong.

Basically, Xie, probability like that only applies when each answer has an equal chance of being picked. In your "random guessing" example, yes, each answer has an equal chance. However, when there is a universal inclination to pick one answer, (for example, everyone 'knows' that there are 50 states, but in this example test that is the wrong answer), then the balance is greatly shifted and your estimated probability of getting a 0 is 'completely wrong'

That was my whole point: you're just as likely to go for A, B, or C in the test which we're talking about (not the one you just made up, which contains a trick question and is therefore not representative at all), if you don't know the answer, for the vast majority of the questions, because all of the answers were completely reasonable.

Also, I notice you kind of ignored the fact that if some questions are biased then some would be biased towards the right answer and others towards the wrong answer. Therefore you couldn't say there would be a great shift in any direction in particular, so therefore all one can do is ignore this and take the average, which is the figure I gave in the first place.

No, you still do not understand. My example is just an exaggeration. I am saying that with most of the questions, the majority of the people are biased towards one answer. And furthermore, I dont even know why I am talking about multiple people. If one, stupid person (wendylove in this example) is biased towards all the wrong answers, then the probability does not apply at all.

The fact of the matter is, taking the percentage of chance for the answers is not an appropriate way to figure out the chances of getting a 0 when all of the answers are not at an equal rate of being picked. There are other factors involved in the selection of choices... such as for example, logic.

And furthermore, I dont even know why I am talking about multiple people. If one, stupid person (wendylove in this example) is biased towards all the wrong answers, then the probability does not apply at all.

Yes it does, depends how the question is stated and what the test is about. If they said a general american test I would pick 50 for the number of states and in the toilet flushing one I would pick clockwise, however if they said a observational test or genius test I would change my anwser to the generally incorrect anwser. The biased is caused by the test and how the person thinks about it.

Leading questions makes the test biased and probabillty speaking Xei is right.

Also, I notice you kind of ignored the fact that if some questions are biased then some would be biased towards the right answer and others towards the wrong answer.

This test springs to my mind http://www.proofthatgodexists.org/ the one about is it right to rape a child question, is obviously a example of a biased forced test.

Originally Posted by wendylove

If they said a general american test I would pick 50 for the number of states and in the toilet flushing one I would pick clockwise, however if they said a observational test or genius test I would change my anwser to the generally incorrect anwser.

The question is, what is the "genious" answer to the toilet question? Yes, it was a bad question, but let's look beyond that for a moment.

1. The poor soul who knows and believes the myth of the flush direction would get the question right.
2. The person who never heard this myth would have a 50/50 chance of getting it right.
3. The true genious...? Well as soon as he lookd at the answers, he would get that the person who formulated the test had fallen for the myth, and deduce the answer that was being sought. Therefore, although the question is technically a bad one, the OBSERVANT person would get it correct. This, by the way, is the method by which I arrived at the "correct" answer.

Originally Posted by ataraxis

No, you still do not understand. My example is just an exaggeration. I am saying that with most of the questions, the majority of the people are biased towards one answer. And furthermore, I dont even know why I am talking about multiple people. If one, stupid person (wendylove in this example) is biased towards all the wrong answers, then the probability does not apply at all.

The fact of the matter is, taking the percentage of chance for the answers is not an appropriate way to figure out the chances of getting a 0 when all of the answers are not at an equal rate of being picked. There are other factors involved in the selection of choices... such as for example, logic.

Okay, I'd agree that if someone believes the questions to be trick questions (and hence picks anything other than what they believe is the obvious answer), or if someone is just trying to get 0, then the chances are higher.

But I thought Wendylove was actually trying? And there's only really a few which one could think were trying to trip you up on purpose...

Originally Posted by wendylove

Yes it does, depends how the question is stated and what the test is about. If they said a general american test I would pick 50 for the number of states and in the toilet flushing one I would pick clockwise, however if they said a observational test or genius test I would change my anwser to the generally incorrect anwser. The biased is caused by the test and how the person thinks about it.

Leading questions makes the test biased and probabillty speaking Xei is right.

This test springs to my mind http://www.proofthatgodexists.org/ the one about is it right to rape a child question, is obviously a example of a biased forced test.

Two things it does say that the test is based on American results at the very beginning of the test... so much for being observant, so officially failed the test already. I'm not too sure about how biased a question like where does the green light appear on the traffic light, and no matter how you look at it there are 50 states. The country of America recognizes all 50 states there is no argument about it. Observation only requires seeing there is no thinking in observation (well no deep thought). Have you wrote a science lab before? Have you ever stated your thoughts in the observation part?

I thought the traffic lights were on the top in america, however I haven't seen any traffic lights in america as I haven't been their. See asking someone how many states their our is too easy, I thought their would be some kind off trick, however their was none. See if they said general test I would off picked 50, however they said observational test. See you must be blind to not know how many states our in your country, so I thought their would be a trick to it. Statistically speaking if I was guessing I would have atleast got about 7 correct, however I got 0. This suggest either I am dumb and unlucky, I am strange or that I am smart.

General knowledge: 50 states
Observational knowledge 50 sates

It's not that the test is worded wrong you just thought about it way too hard, observation doesn't require critical thinking, either you see it or you don't. Is it that hard to understand. Where do you live? I mean I'm pretty sure that in most places the traffic lights are the same, so I assumed that and got it right. I wouldn't say that it's because you are so smart that you got 0 (because most of them you barely have to think), if you were extremely intelligent you would have realized it's just some stupid test online that obviously isn't going to have huge elaborate answers that requires you to know all historical data of the US, in fact the only trick on is the fan one, but if you were smart enough you would have realized "Hey when I use a fan I generally want it to blast air towards me, now which direction does the fan go when I do that? That's right clockwise!". If you picked the neither option then you fail even more, most fans that are plugged in work, so you would know they go in some direction, therefore you would have had a 50% chance of getting it right. (My thoughts are in no particular order so sorry if it's hard to read, now I'm off to work until 9)

Well, can you take the test on my thread called the real observational test, I thought it was something like that.
http://www.dreamviews.com/community/...902#post456902

Also don't post the anwser in this thread as it will spoil it for other people.

After taking the test Homer2020, you now know what I thought the test would be like. Also ataraxis take the test too.

if you were extremely intelligent you would have realized it's just some stupid test online that obviously isn't going to have huge elaborate answers that requires you to know all historical data of the US, in fact the only trick on is the fan one, but if you were smart enough you would have realized "

Well, I didn't actually complete this test. After the myth one I just quit. So I did actually work out it was a stupid test, which then made me angry and argumentive, which is why their is now lots of pages for this stupid test.

One thing I noticed when taking this brilliantly cobbled test is that the question about the no smoking sign actually had two correct answers. However, only one is acceptable. That skews the possible outcome right there.

Originally Posted by Lovely Wendy

I am strange or that I am smart.

Hmm, let me toss a coin. I call heads.

Originally Posted by South Park's Mr. Garrison

There are no stupid questions, only stupid people.

How is the number of states in America something we observe every day? In fact, how can you really observe it at all, without spending a considerable amoung of time counting the number of sections on a map?

Anyway, I think we might want to contemplate dropping this discussion now... just maybe? It's not that important, this is just some test made by somebody who can't make tests so well. ._.

Originally Posted by Xei

How is the number of states in America something we observe every day? In fact, how can you really observe it at all, without spending a considerable amoung of time counting the number of sections on a map?

It's just common knowledge: 50 states - 50 stars on the modern U.S. flag. You either know it or don't.

19, baby! But dammit, the times I have had match books, they had more than 20 matches. And my women wear T-shirts!

Originally Posted by Oneironaught

It's just common knowledge: 50 states - 50 stars on the modern U.S. flag. You either know it or don't.

Americans learn that in school, and we have a lot of commercials that talk about policies that are good in "all 50 states".

Originally Posted by skysaw

The question is, what is the "genious" answer to the toilet question? Yes, it was a bad question, but let's look beyond that for a moment.

1. The poor soul who knows and believes the myth of the flush direction would get the question right.

It's not a myth. If you pull a plug in a bathtub in the northern hemisphere, the water goes down clockwise. If you do the same thing in the southern hemisphere, the water goes down counterclockwise. Science textbooks talk about it. There is even a scientific name for the phenomenon-- the Coriolis effect.

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&r...oriolis+effect

17 of 25

It's not a myth. If you pull a plug in a bathtub in the northern hemisphere, the water goes down clockwise. If you do the same thing in the southern hemisphere, the water goes down counterclockwise. Science textbooks talk about it. There is even a scientific name for the phenomenon-- the Coriolils effect.

Sorry, but your wrong. Their is something called the colriolils effect, however it does not happen in your bath. http://www.snopes.com/science/coriolis.asp

You need to stop watching the simpsons.

Originally Posted by wendylove

Sorry, but your wrong. Their is something called the colriolils effect, however it does not happen in your bath. http://www.snopes.com/science/coriolis.asp

You need to stop watching the simpsons.

The Simpsons suck.

It's the Coriolis effect, not the "colriolils" effect (Yeah, I misspelled it too.). With all other factors being equal, water in a toilet or bathtub in the northern hemisphere will drain clockwise and water in the southern hemisphere will drain counterclockwise. Because the water in those containers is of such low volume and mass, other factors, such as the shape of the tub or toilet and the way water is poured into them can go against the Coriolis tendency. The Coriolis effect still exists at those levels, but it is subject to being countered by other factors. It's not like the Coriolis force suddenly jumps into existence with certain sizes. I personally don't recall ever seeing a toilet, sink, or bathtub drain counterclockwise. That does have a lot to do with the fact that I have never been to the southern hemisphere.

Interesting quiz. I got 17/25.