I don't think that there was a real surplus under Clinton. For a couple reasons.
1. Alot of the money was fake. (I'll go into that.)
2. The lack of debt was only existant if you didn't count all of the extra Welfare/S.S. money we owed or would owe due to his policies.
If we look at mortages, we pay them and the loan companies package them up and sell them to investors as equitable assets. The safest investment in the world, right? Not if Clinton had anything to say about it. 'It's to hard for an American to get a home, let's make X number of non-verifiable home loans per year mandated.'
What happens, all kinds of people that earlier were renting now can get a loan and purchase. What happens? Homes start flying off the shelves. Money circulates with the money that these formaly lower class people now have. SO now the middle class gets bumped up as the lower class fills in, (In a sense. It's more complex than that but anyway...) So now equity in middle class homes rises.
So what do they do? They refinance. They purchase boats and vacations and fuel efficient cars for their kids in college. Money circulates again, so the economy is jump started again. And so it appears that a positive cycle is re-occuring. 'Good job CLinton, your an economic genius!'
But... Everyone's forgotten... It's all funny money. It's all an artificial ruse created by the real estate policies, (as well as a few that go with it I'm pretty sure.)
Fast forward years in the future. That funny money starts to come back down to Earth. It certainly doesn't help that some point during this fall a major center of trade and commece is destroyed and the government is eating up cash like a hungry hippo, but that was only a factor, not the cause.
At any rate, now those people who should have been renting have now bought, have to deal with thier loans. (Now, if Nixon had us still on the gold standard, the homeowners wouldn't have as many problems with dealing with it.) At any rate, those loans have to be payed for. But since the people who are living beyond thier means have the same level job as they had 10 years ago, they can't make the payments.
That wasn't a problem earlier, since the economy was booming, but it had startled to level back down a while ago. It leveled down even faster do to other variables, too. The homeowners with thier fake loans can't pay for it. Thye loose it and go back to thier olf lifestyle. Now those middle class who had been temporarily boosted fall back down to thier previous standing, but with a problem. They had overstretched themselves.
Thier boats and cruises and cars had scarred them. They default on thier mortages like crazy. Mortage fallout is greater than it's been in forever, investors get scared, and pull out. Mortage companies still own the equity, but it is not being invested in. It stagnates. At what happens to a stagnate economy, especially in one not based on a commodity standard? It goes kablooey.
That's my belief anyway.
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