everything is 50/50

[nerve]

I was driving the other day and thinking about the odds of my being in a car accident. there have been plenty of times where GOOD DRIVERS are RANDOMLY HIT by some idiot, drunk or just stupid, whatever the case. but what are the odds of this happening to you, me, anyone? what is the percentage, how do you find it? take all excursions, how often you drive, factor in distance...number of "random" accidents (that is, a person randomly hitting you, though you are a "good" driver) come up with some number...it is probably a low percentage. right? to me it seems that it is always 50/50. because these accidents are random, there is always a 50% chance you will be hit randomly. even a person who NEVER drives, could one day drive somewhere...and get hit. it seems like everything is 50/50, to me. but this can't be right, I know, I feel stupid for making this post and surely am putting myself up for ridicule :( I just can't shake the feeling that everything is...random.

[Xei]

You count what percentage of people are in car crashes. Let's say that it's 3%. If you are a random person, the probability of you being in a car crash is therefore 3%. Hardly any random events have probabilities of 50%. Why would they?

[DuB]

If you think about it, I'm sure you'll agree that something being subject to some degree of random chance is not the same is having a 50/50 likelihood of occuring. Do you want to rephrase your thesis?

[Universal Mind]

I've been in more car crashes than I can even keep up with, and none of them were my fault, except for one where I rear ended a guy at a stop light when I was going about 5 miles per hour. There was no damage. Well, that's in terms of moving cars. I bumped into two parked cars when I was a teenager. I have learned to prevent car crashes pretty effectively by watching out for idiots on the road. I look both ways every time I drive through a green light, I don't go immediately when a light turns green, I look in my rearview mirror every time I stop, and I try to remain aware of what cars are in the nearby lanes. I also wear a seatbelt 100% of the time. If seatbelts did not exist, I would already be dead. This might sound crazy, but I think it's true. Playing driving video games where you use a steering wheel can really help with your defensive driving reflexes. I think playing those in my childhood gave me the ability to avoid a few wrecks later in life.

[Tornado Joe]

Nah, I kinda see what you're saying. If everything is, indeed, 'random', then you cant quantify or fit it into a pattern. In the end, we can only calculate probabilities of a particular outcome. Let's say you have a 1 in 100 chance of winning a lottery. You can look at it as you (1) against 99 OR you (1) against "them" (1). Now it's 1 of 2, or 1/2 (50&#37. The probability that one of the 99 others will draw the winning ticket is MATHEMATICALLY greater - but, like I said, can we reallly count on randomness?Nah, I kinda see what you're saying. If everything is, indeed, 'random', then you cant quantify or fit it into a pattern. In the end, we can only calculate probabilities of a particular outcome. Let's say you have a 1 in 100 chance of winning a lottery. You can look at it as you (1) against 99 OR you (1) against "them" (1). Now it's 1 of 2, or 1/2 (50%). The probability that one of the 99 others will draw the winning ticket is MATHEMATICALLY greater - but, can we really count on randomness? If you were to hold the lottery 100 times, there is still no guarantee that you'll win on one of those attempts.

[really]

If you want to figure out the universal formula for all fated car crashes, you have to become the universe. Spoiler for Answer: 1/∞

[[SomeGuy]]

Actually, I don't think his point is about the chances you have of getting hit, more like the chances of it happening or not. Get hit by a car, or not. Crash and die in a plane, or not. Get some, or not. I agree: the chances of things happening are always 50%, but not 50% when you say it as in the probability that you will get hit.

[Xei]

Uh. Probability of being in car crash = 0.03. Probability of not being in car crash = 1 - 0.03 = 0.97 0.97 =! 0.5 =! 0.03 The probability that one of the 99 others will draw the winning ticket is MATHEMATICALLY greater - but, can we really count on randomness? If you were to hold the lottery 100 times, there is still no guarantee that you'll win on one of those attempts. No indeed, there's only a probability of 1 - 0.99^100 = 63.4%. Your point is?

[[SomeGuy]]

Uh. Probability of being in car crash = 0.03. Probability of not being in car crash = 1 - 0.03 = 0.97 0.97 =! 0.5 =! 0.03 There are two possibilites: You get hit or not. Two possibilities = 50% for each.

[DuB]

There are two possibilites: You get hit or not. Two possibilities = 50% for each. You can't possibly be serious...? So you are directly asserting that the next time I drive my car, there is a 50% chance that I will be in an accident? This actually makes sense in your mind?

[Xei]

There are two possibilites: You get hit or not. Two possibilities = 50% for each. And you thought you could lecture me about maths. -_- There are two possibilities; win the lottery, lose the lottery. Two possibilities = 50% for each. 50% probability of winning the lottery. Yey.

[[SomeGuy]]

Lol, I don't think that half the time you drive a car you will get hit, I'm syaing that there are two possibilities. 50% is not the probablility that they will happen, but I'm just saying that I think that's what is going through the OP's mind.