Thread: Computers

I'd say at least a hundred years. I think the software will be around in forty or so, but the robotics will be not possible until then. Software always beats hardware.

I wanna see how long it takes for 3D holographic projection.

Originally Posted by ninja9578

I wanna see how long it takes for 3D holographic projection.

That would be freaking awesome!

Actually I heard someone was planning to do that already with some kind of dinosaur movie...but it probably fell through since I heard about it about 3 years ago.

Too bad it probably will never be like star trek.

I think computers will be able to "replicate" human intelligence within ten years, perhaps less. Stephen Thaler's devices are promising, and the military has him working on advanced AI for their robotics projects. His projections are more optimistic, but accounting for market/political forces, I think ten years is pretty sound.

Ray Kurzweil projects that, within five years, augmented reality will be possible via computer displays, which means 3-D projection will be obsolete. I'd give it ten years.

The military is making substantial investment in robotic prosthesis, hoping for arms as capable as a human's arms within 5 years(I'd give it ten again). Legs are even simpler. Add a robotic torso and a computer and it's an android. I'd give that project a good 15 to 20 years. They've already got an impressive prototype arm with 15 degrees of freedom, I think.

So your saying that people can have robotic arms for thos ethat have lost their limbs?

Augmented reality is what? Like fizzling with your brain?

It doesn't have to do anything to your brain. Augmented reality can be as simple as computer displays in a pair of glasses that overlay messages onto the world that you see. They might put arrows in the road ahead of you that give you directions so you don't have to take your eyes off of the road while driving. 3-D images, color images, and virtual worlds could be displayed almost as easily, once computers are powerful and portable enough.

Originally Posted by R.D.735

It doesn't have to do anything to your brain. Augmented reality can be as simple as computer displays in a pair of glasses that overlay messages onto the world that you see. They might put arrows in the road ahead of you that give you directions so you don't have to take your eyes off of the road while driving. 3-D images, color images, and virtual worlds could be displayed almost as easily, once computers are powerful and portable enough.

Ah, advanced optics then?

The optics can be relatively simple, depending on the application. If the goal is to simulate a virtual world, the glasses could be perfectly opaque and all that might be necessary is an organic LED screen, and those are expected to be feasible(and cheap) within five years.

It could be possible to connect some small cameras to the device and eliminate the need for a transparent display altogether.

Neat.

Originally Posted by R.D.735

I think computers will be able to "replicate" human intelligence within ten years, perhaps less.

Haha. NO WAI!. I'd say it would take at least in the range of 50 to 100 years, possibly thousands, but certainly not before twenty. Supercomputers at the moment cannot begin to simulate one single human neuron to a good degree of pysical accuracy. If you look at the AI which is going on at the moment - and I have studied a fair bit of AI - the tasks are incredibly, incredibly simple, most of which can be broken down into a standard search scenario. Sure, they can beat us at chess, but chess is not human intelligence.

The human brain will never be realised in silicon of course. Quantum, molecular and other systems are the way to succeed, but research (let alone real experience) in these are still in its infancy.

In 10 years have fun with your XBox 720 or your hyper-flat monitor that uses virtually nil power with 10,000 x 10,000 resolution. But don't expect it to be any more intelligent than computers are now, not by an order of magnitude at least.

I have written an essay on Kurzweil. I have since become quite skeptical of his ideas. There may be a paradigm shift in computers, but not any time soon. We simply do not have the research, knowledge or materials required.

I'd like to know when will we hit technological singularity.