Evolution in 100 years?

**arby** · 07-12-2008 08:03 PM

Hey DV, I was just thinking... if our population is so much larger then it ever was in the past... couldn't evolution happen in a much shorter time frame?

Here are some number for you to consider:

homo habilis (ape people, for those of you who don't recognize the name) existed 2,000,000 years ago.

Their population was somewhere in the range of 100,000 to 1,000,000.

Today we have a population of about 6,600,000,000

Today about 2,000,000,000 people live in conditions where natural selection would still be prominent.

Doing quick math, that means there are 20,000-2,000 times as many people undergoing natural selection now then back then.

If we divide 2,000,000 (length of time to go from homo habilis ---> homo sapien) by the difference in population we get 100-1000 years.

Thus, just as we went from homo habilis --> homo sapien in 2 million years, we might be able to evolve from homo sapien --> (largely different species) in 100-1000 years provided we keep this sudden explosion of population...

Discuss.

**bluefinger** · 07-12-2008 08:09 PM

http://www.newscientist.com/channel/...n-the-lab.html

And also Nylon-digesting bacteria. Nylon has only been around for 60-70 or so years and is completely synthetic, and yet bacteria have been found to have evolved the ability to digest it.

Also, new species of plants can be easily created in short periods of time, thanks to polyploidy.

So yes, Speciation can happen in short-time frames (though this depends on the reproduction rate of the organism). However, Evolution occurs all the time.

Also, Evolution occurs more rapidly in smaller, isolated populations rather than large ones, due to Gene Flow. This has the inherent effect of keeping any major changes in check due to the interbreeding of the potentially divergent population with that of the main population. If the two populations were to be separated and isolated, then the divergent population would eventually evolve into another species.

**wendylove** · 07-12-2008 08:16 PM

Its called punctuated equilibrium

**Original Poster** · 07-12-2008 08:27 PM

Evolution happens within weeks in insect populations. Notice how insect sprays become less effective each time you use them? Also look up peppered moths.

**The Cusp** · 07-12-2008 09:24 PM

So you're saying that this is evolution?

**Sornaensis** · 07-12-2008 09:27 PM

It's a part of the process, yes.

Called mutation.

**The Cusp** · 07-12-2008 09:40 PM

I'm not buying it. Evolution is being used as a cover for irresponsible chemical use.

Human being have the lowest natural mutation rate of any animal on the planet. We're not evolving into anything new anytime soon.

By the way, that baby grew up to have a successful martial arts career in the Mortal Combat tournaments.

**grasshoppa** · 07-14-2008 08:45 AM

Originally Posted by arby

Hey DV, I was just thinking... if our population is so much larger then it ever was in the past... couldn't evolution happen in a much shorter time frame?

Here are some number for you to consider:

homo habilis (ape people, for those of you who don't recognize the name) existed 2,000,000 years ago.

Their population was somewhere in the range of 100,000 to 1,000,000.

Today we have a population of about 6,600,000,000

Today about 2,000,000,000 people live in conditions where natural selection would still be prominent.

Doing quick math, that means there are 20,000-2,000 times as many people undergoing natural selection now then back then.

If we divide 2,000,000 (length of time to go from homo habilis ---> homo sapien) by the difference in population we get 100-1000 years.

Thus, just as we went from homo habilis --> homo sapien in 2 million years, we might be able to evolve from homo sapien --> (largely different species) in 100-1000 years provided we keep this sudden explosion of population...

Discuss.

I've already evolved, you schmucks.