We Go Boom? (asteroid On A Collision Course With Earth)

[ExoByte]

Even if you think the only life in the universe is on Earth, we're still not alone. In addition to the other planets and moons in our solar system, there are countless tons of space dust, millions of meteors, asteroids, comets and various types and sizes of debris (including the trash we've left up there ourselves) flying around at incredible speeds and in all sorts of orbits. Earth gets hit by stuff every day -- it just doesn't show up on the common man's radar because the impact isn't newsworthy. Space dust doesn't hurt us. Most large asteroids that hit Earth are the size of a basketball by the time they make it through the burning conditions of Earth's atmosphere, and those hit about once a week. It's pretty much just the astronomers that notice. It would take something massive -- space-terms massive -- to make the rest of us notice. And the last time the rest of us really noticed was in 1908, when an asteroid about the size of a football field exploded in Earth's atmosphere with the force of a 15-megaton bomb, leveling an 800 square-mile (2,000-sq-km) area of Siberia. The nuclear bomb the United States dropped on Hiroshima had a 15-kiloton yield. So imagine the furrowed brows when NASA announced that it was expanding its Near Earth Object Program, which identifies and tracks asteroids, and the European Space Agency is launching a mission to test a potential asteroid-deflection method. As it turns out, statistically speaking, an asteroid the size of a football field should hit Earth about every hundred years. So -- statistically speaking -- we're due. But the asteroid that has scientists huddled together, holding conferences and releasing carefully worded statements is at least twice the size of a football field, and "nuke it" is actually being whispered as a last resort. It's called Apophis, and it's about 250 meters across. The 45-million-ton rock is orbiting the Sun at 28,000 miles per hour (45,000 kph). If it hits Earth, it could easily level a large city. According to all sources, the chances of it hitting are slim, about one in 45,000, and getting slimmer. In 2005, scientists calculated that Apophis had a one in 5,500 chance of colliding with Earth, and they predict that the chance of a hit will continue to decrease. Using calculations based on the relative positions of Earth and Apophis in 2007, the asteroid will be within 24,000 miles (39,000 km) of Earth in 2029. That's very, very close, much closer to Earth than the moon is, and we'll be able to see it with the naked eye in both day and night-time. But that's not the close call astronomers are worried about. It could come even closer to Earth in 2036, and there are some algorithms that predict a collision, but most experts say it won't hit us. Still, preparations are underway. The idea is to plan early for the best avoidance strategy. With 20 years to go, we could probably make sure Apophis won't hit us even if it wants to. Most scientists think that blowing it up with a nuclear bomb is a bad idea -- that we'd just end up with a bunch of large asteroids hitting Earth instead of one really large one. Others says if we blow it up early enough, there would be enough time for the trajectory of the pieces to shift out of the danger zone. At the moment, though, the method of choice for saving Earth from Apophis is deflection. There are a few big ideas out there. One has several spacecraft landing on Apophis, drilling through the surface and pumping out what's inside. NASA has actually done something like this successfully with its Deep Impact mission, which crashed an impactor into a comet with the purpose of revealing the comet's composition. With Apophis, the point would be to pump the material out into space with enough force to push Apophis in the opposite direction, throwing it off course. Scientists are also talking about sending a spacecraft into the asteroid's orbit to fly next to it. This "gravity tractor" spaceship would essentially alter the gravity equation that keeps Apophis on its path, pulling on the asteroid until its position no longer threatens Earth. But according to Donald Yeomans of NASA's Near Earth Object Project, the simplest way to deflect Apophis is to send a spacecraft up there to just slam into it, knocking it out of the way. [/b] I just plain can't wait for this day to come. Whether we die or not(which we probably won't), this'll be a sight to behold, seeing that asteroid up in the sky. What are others opinions on this oncoming doom?

[MSG]

I don't really know. I do know where I'd like it to hit, though.

[Never]

I've read about the comet that blew up over Tunguska in 1908. Awesome stuff. Anyhow, I think it is much more likely that super volcanoes (such as the Siberian traps) will be the cause for our extinction; the core has to vent sometime, and when it does, we cannot survive. Either way, I'm looking forward to it.

[13redfan]

Either way, I'm looking forward to it. [/b] Yay. The end of the world. Woohoo. Let's get front row seats...

[Umbrasquall]

I learned about all this and other near Earth stuff when I took an astronomy course last semester. We talked about how deflection was the best method as well. I think the 1908 Tunguska bomb was a couple of tens of meters across, not as big as a football field. But the reason why it caused so much damage is that it exploded in the air, causing much more damage then if it had actually hit the ground, like how a MOAB works. This is a chart of meteorite impacts in history, graphed to how often they occur and how much energy they release. The Chicxulub impact in the Yucatan 65 million years ago is an impact that we have every 100 million years, and you can see how it is way above the energy of all the world's nuclear arsenal. The meteor was about 6 miles in diameter and the crater it left probably helped form the Gulf of Mexico and caused the extinction of most large life forms including the dinosaurs. I remember a post was made like two years ago linking a news article that warned about a 12-mile diameter asteroid that could collide with us in February of 2015 (20 million Hiroshimas if I remember correctly). A lot of people were talking about how it sort of coincided with the Mayan calender's end in 2012. But that fear was dispelled and nothing was heard about it again. Space is so large, minute adjustments to gravity is very sensitive, and the span of time we all live through is so insignificant that the Earth's fate can change very quickly. It's sort of like the butterfly effect in outer space.

[Alex D]

I don't really know. I do know where I'd like it to hit, though. [/b] where?

[Kamikaze]

I don't think it will hit us. I would however like to watch it pass as I think it could be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

[Artelis]

where? [/b] Your house.

[Oneironaut Zero]

Yeah. I can't say I'm too worried about it hitting us, but to be able to see it pass overhead would be awesome.

[Chaos]

From what I've heard, the chances of the asteroid actually hitting the earth are astronomically small. I will have to remember to find my camera and take pictures when it goes by Earth.

[Bonsay]

From what I've heard, the chances of the asteroid actually hitting the earth are astronomically small. I will have to remember to find my camera and take pictures when it goes by Earth. [/b] So is getting hit by lightning or winning the lottery. Tell that to the guy who got hit by lightning and the guy who won the lottery.

[PenguinLord13]

I just plain can't wait for this day to come. Whether we die or not(which we probably won't), this'll be a sight to behold, seeing that asteroid up in the sky. What are others opinions on this oncoming doom? [/b] I don't think it is going to hit us, and I actually hope that it comes really close in a near miss type thing just because seeing a huge rock in the sky like that would be amazing it is really could be seen night and day (you can barely say that about our moon). Even if it hits though, I am not too worried for the simple reason that most of the earth is water or very sparesly inhabited, and therefore chances of it doing real permanent damage to us humans is pretty low. It would be a disaster, but a disaster comparable to some of the horrible natural disasters we've had lately (depressing, but we can rebuild and get over it), not some kind of apocalypes.

[Kaniaz]

This will only be about the tenth meteor that's going to hit Earth and destroy us all in a massive, fiery, Hollywood explosion. I'm betting it won't be the last.

[NeAvO]

I'm not too worried, how many times have we been warned at an asteroid hitting the planet? Chances are another planet like Saturn will pull the asteroid off course anyway.

[Umbrasquall]

I don't think it is going to hit us, and I actually hope that it comes really close in a near miss type thing just because seeing a huge rock in the sky like that would be amazing it is really could be seen night and day (you can barely say that about our moon). Even if it hits though, I am not too worried for the simple reason that most of the earth is water or very sparesly inhabited, and therefore chances of it doing real permanent damage to us humans is pretty low. It would be a disaster, but a disaster comparable to some of the horrible natural disasters we've had lately (depressing, but we can rebuild and get over it), not some kind of apocalypes. [/b] It's not nearly close enough to appear like a "huge rock" in the sky sort of deal. It'll probably just be a bright speck in the sky, like a satellite would appear. Sorry to get your hopes up.

[wasup]

It's not nearly close enough to appear like a "huge rock" in the sky sort of deal. It'll probably just be a bright speck in the sky, like a satellite would appear. Sorry to get your hopes up. [/b] Eh? A meteor large enough to destroy the earth, in a "near-miss" situation would definitly appear a LOT larger than a "speck." A satellite is really small, compared to a meteor that would destory us. If a meteor came as close as a satellite it would certainly look huge. Edit: Do I mean asteroid? I don't really know the terminology.

[Umbrasquall]

It's not close to being the size to destroy the Earth. It's only 250 meters in diameter, and probably will destroy an area of maybe 10 square miles if it hits. It's closest point is 39,000 km. It's a "near-miss" in astronomical standards, but it's still very far away.

[carlhungis]

I am not sure how big Hale-Bopp was, or how close it was, but it was a pretty amazing sight to see. If this is more dramatic than that, it will be pretty amazing. My question is: Would they even tell the public if it was certainly going to hit us? Or would they simply say that it will be a close call with a very small chance of impact? I just think that they would never tell us when a collision was going to happen. Who knows. I hope we don't get hit in the near future. Edit: For refrence... Hale Bopp was 40 km in diameter and only got as close as "Earth Closest Approach: March 22, 1997 (1.315 AU)" where "1 AU = 93 Million Miles = 150 Million Kilometers". So if this thing is supposed to be 6x larger and roughly 145 million Kilometers closer, I would say it will be frightening once it has it's near miss.

[wasup]

I am not sure how big Hale-Bopp was, or how close it was, but it was a pretty amazing sight to see. If this is more dramatic than that, it will be pretty amazing. My question is: Would they even tell the public if it was certainly going to hit us? Or would they simply say that it will be a close call with a very small chance of impact? I just think that they would never tell us when a collision was going to happen. Who knows. I hope we don't get hit in the near future.[/b] Yes, because that sort of information certainly wouldn't leak.

[carlhungis]

Yes, because that sort of information certainly wouldn't leak.[/b] Just like any leak certainly wouldn't be discredited....

[TweaK]

This will only be about the tenth meteor that's going to hit Earth and destroy us all in a massive, fiery, Hollywood explosion. I'm betting it won't be the last.[/b] I agree, we've heard these sort of doomsday expectations way too often. Wasn't there a guy a while ago that said the Earth would end somewhere in 2004? 2005? Oh shit, it's 2007 already!

[Kaniaz]

Shut up, I'm busy enjoying the apocalypse

[TweaK]

And to whoever sarcastically said you'd want to get frontrow seats if a meteor'd crash and kill us all, duh. Then at least you'll die after having seen something beautiful. All the other people will probably try to escape the inevitable which is, well, inevitable. I know I'd want to be at the impact site. Instant death, no pain, seeing something beautiful, damn. Lovely. On the other hand, that's just if it's already determined it'll happen when I'm still alive, because don't get me wrong - I don't wish death upon us all. I'd rather not live to see the end.

[FreshBrains]

I wonder if nuking it would really be an option. I mean, it's a huge chunk of rock moving at hundreds of thousands of miles per hour - would a nuke really even have a chance of deflecting it? I think people being notified of where it would impact depends on what country it would land in. Going to hit North Korea? Rejoice! I doubt any koreans would be notified. But if it was going to hit a US suburb, I'm pretty sure people would be told to evacuate.

[Xnyper]

(Wikipedia has some good info about this) We're talking about an asteroid here... it's not going to fly into our solar system out of nowhere and smack us in the face, it's orbiting the sun just like we are and in the 2030's both of us will be near the point where our orbitals cross, like so: What they're worried about is the earth passing by the asteroid and, from a great distance via gravity, nudging it into a place where, years later, we will be in the same spot. I wonder if nuking it would really be an option. I mean, it's a huge chunk of rock moving at hundreds of thousands of miles per hour - would a nuke really even have a chance of deflecting it?[/b] I think that we will have quite a few shots at it (we'll find ourselves in the same general area—astronomically speaking—a few times before we're out of time) and that one good shot could affect its orbital trajectory by at least a mile per hour or so, and that's all it would take (SPACE.com has some good info about this). if we miss... we'll have to accept the 1:45000 odds that a small patch of the earth might need to relocate for a while. As exciting as the end of the world might be, it's not going to come about from Apophis.