The real question is, what is the probability of being the red clam and receiving a pearl. Or perhaps being the blue clam and and turning red?
*Rolls on floor laughing, unable to contain self from said analogy*
At least you tried with the analogy, however the statistics are just random and not relevant. I would have much rather seen you try comparing this to beluga whales and plankton, just for laughs.
Mathematics is a powerful tool for understanding the universe. Ignoring any probabilistic argument because probabilities are 'just random' doesn't really carry any weight for me.
Any who, not to be completely cynical, I will give some constructive thought. A project like this would be extremely economically inducible to waste if it does not produce any astounding...new, scientific discovery, let a lone tools.. Is a silicon simulation enough of a lead to invest billions, rather than invest billions in improving the life of those in poverty...reformation of living condition. To mean it seems irrational to be fucking around with rat's brains than devoting more time to our economic crisis, as well as poor foreign relations and situations we have got ourselves into. Hurray, we simulated impulsive neuron movement, and maybe... JUST MAYBE.... rat's have consciousness.... Oh boy, a rat knows he be a rat in his small, lonely, rat world.
Well, I disagree. Firstly a simulation is pretty much necessary if we're ever going to crack the neural code, because you can fuck around with a simulation however you please, unlike real neural networks.
And secondly; we could at any point during our history have said, 'what's the point in this science crap, what good is it?' because we couldn't see any application... then where would we be? We might not have electricity. We might not have medicine. We might not have computers. All of these things have had large benefits for humanity as a whole, yet we wouldn't have following your argument. Plus the investments involved are so minute in comparison to the scale of America's bailouts (although Blue Brain isn't even in America, it's Swiss) that it's hardly worth talking about.
Your analogy doesn't work at all. Let me fix it for you. There is a bucket of a trillion blue clams and a mixed in are ten red clams. You begin to try to open clams but find it much easier to open red clams, so you open all of them first, and find each one contains a pearl. What exactly is the logical reasoning here behind assuming that since all ten red clams contained pearls, and you haven't opened any blues, blues must not contain pearls? So far, all you know to be different between them is their color, which for all you know has nothing to do with whether or not they contain a pearl.
In reality, this analogy isn't even accurate. To be more precise, it would have to be that I am a red clam with a pearl, and I ask all the other red clams and they say they have a pearl too, but don't show it to me, and I am unable to ask the blue clams at all because I don't know how to communicate with them. For some reason, you assume that "redness" causes the pearl, but anyone else could just as easily assume that "clamness" causes the pearl. (which, if you knew anything about clams in the first place, would be the more logical assumption.)
What can I say? You haven't really understood the statistical argument at the heart of the analogy and thus your responses aren't relevant.
I'm not sure here as I've mostly studied pure math but I would take a guess that the phrase you are looking for is observation selection. My intuition is no good for this sort of stuff.
Nah that wasn't it, it was some very specific probabilistic equation relating to conditional probabilities... never mind.
Ah, I think I remember where I read about it before though; it was here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument
I think the term I may have been looking for is the Copernican or 'mediocrity' principle.
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