 Originally Posted by Xei
It's very simple. There are trillions of blue clams so if you were given a random pearl you'd expect it to be from a blue one. However given that it actually came from a red one, in statistical terms, it is sensible to assume that the blue clams contain no pearls, which nullifies what would otherwise be an unbelievably massive coincidence.
First of all, this is the same way you said it before. Second, it still doesn't apply to the concept of consciousness.
Let me try to explain it to you. You say you are "given" a pearl; as in, a solid object was removed from one of these creatures and handed to an outside observer. In the case of consciousness, what is the object? Who is the outside observer? There is no answer to either of those questions. The very fact that you are a human being instead of a bit of bacteria (or a red clam as opposed to a blue clam) could be considered a famously unlikely coincidence in itself. The fact that you are standing on the one known planet to contain any life at all among trillions could also be considered to be one hell of a coincidence. The fact is though, its not signifigant, and its misleading to use statistics in this way.
Your example assumes consciousness can be taken out and examined, but so far, it can't. We have a lot of very logical sounding guesses as to what it might be, but when it comes right down to it, I can't even be completely sure that you are conscious.
Like I said before, in your example; its not a situation of finding a pearl in a red clam, its a situation of being a red clam and having a pearl. Given that information, you can wonder all day long about how amazingly coincidental it is that you are among the tiny minority, but what you can't do is apply that knowledge to what the majority may or may not possess in terms of valuable milky spheroids, especially if you can't even see your own little spheroid to get a better idea of what one might look like.
Otherwise, I'll go back to my previous statement. I am the only being in the world that is quite like me, and I know I'm conscious. I don't know for sure whether or not anything else is conscious, but I do know I'm a minority of 1 against what might possibly be an infinite amount of other 'things' so for me to be conscious is extraordinarily unlikely given the chances. I guess I'll have to assume then that I am the only conscious thing in the universe.
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