This is actually quite a complex question regarding statistical hypothesis testing, which I know little about. |
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Click here for the experiment details. |
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Last edited by ethen; 01-15-2010 at 11:39 PM.
This is actually quite a complex question regarding statistical hypothesis testing, which I know little about. |
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You want to use the z-table to determine where your results lie in a normal distribution. For something to be viable, you want it in the 95th percentile of probability or sometimes 99th. Read up on z-tables, bell curves, distribution, and standard deviation. |
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That's actually a binomial distribution, not normal. You can approximate it with normal, but you need more trials. |
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The method Xei outlined should be sufficient to integrate the unique probability for trial 3 with the other trials. The probability it yields corresponds to the ubiquitous p-value, or the probability of obtaining a result at least as extreme as that observed, assuming that the null hypothesis is true (in this case, assuming that you cannot reliably predict the dice color). It is common practice to reject the null hypothesis if this probability is lower than 5%. |
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Last edited by DuB; 01-17-2010 at 05:32 AM.
Yeah, more or less. My first experiment was done with playing cards, but I found that this had too many smaller variables to consider given the instability of these experiences. This time I simplified it quite a bit, but still enough to where each trial still has a decent amount of statistical value. I could have done something like a coin that had a black side and a white side, but that would require far more trials, and LDing enough to make that method pay off would be a problem. |
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Ok, i have some questions about binomial distributions now that I have been teaching myself how to go about calculating the odds of my results of this experiment. Read over the following explanation and let me know if this is an accurate way of calculating the probability of a given number of "Hits" and "Misses" out of 20 trials: |
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Also if you could help me make sense of the following equation, that would be helpful: |
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Last edited by ethen; 02-21-2010 at 04:50 AM.
It seems right. |
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Last edited by SnakeCharmer; 02-21-2010 at 01:58 PM.
If you have a graphing calculator simply set up two matrices. One outlining the the details of the die, and the second outlining the 'points' to be provided for each hit or miss. Just simple highschool math. |
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Ok, just so that I am clear: |
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Unless I'm mistaken you're overcomplicating things. |
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Last edited by mindwanderer; 02-21-2010 at 09:43 PM.
For yours you'd set up like this |
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I am pretty sure that I will need to work with binomial distributions, and to do that I believe I would need to work with the previous equations. Of course, I haven't worked with matrices in quite a while so it may be the case that it could calculate out the values in the same way (but easier). In reality, solving the equations is not that complicated, I was more getting hung up on what the equations meant. |
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Fair enough... |
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This (2. in your post) is what gives you the probability for that specific number of hits, provided that you made them randomly. |
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YES, that app is lovely |
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Ok, one last final question. Suppose that I am doing 25 trials, the odds of a "success" is 1/6, and I get 10 successes by the end of the experiment. |
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