Thread: A future so bright Tux needs shades

http://blogs.zdnet.com/open-source/?p=3126

To hear Linux Foundation executive director Jim Zemlin tell it, the operating system war is over and Linux has won. (Rockies Brewing makes other fine beers, too.)

“Linux represents the ultimate flight to safety in troubled times,” he said while offering some predictions for 2009.

“People want a platform they trust, that’s low cost, that allows them to consolidate infrastructure, and that’s Linux.

“Everyone uses Linux. It’s in the TV, it’s in your TiVo, it’s in all the settop boxes, it’s in your Sony camera. Make a trade on the NYSE and it’s there, search on Google and it’s Linux. Linux owns 85% of the supercomputer market. I’ve seen Linux in a milking machine.”

If Linux were a corporate effort its CEO would be into champagne wishes and caviar dreams. As it is, however, Zemlin is just looking for steady growth next year.

“The Foundation will continue to focus on the core things we do well. We’ll continue to support Linux and the kernel development. We’ll continue to work on the trademark.

“In April we’ll hold our Collaboration summit in San Francisco. We invited the Consumer Electronics Linux Forum to attend.

“We’ll expand the events we offer, including the first Linux Kernel Summit in Tokyo. We’ll be hosting the LinuxCon in September, and expect it to be successful. We’ll have content there for all communities. There will be rich training opportunities there.

“We’ll have more content on the Web. Expect more original research out of us. We authored ‘How to Participate in the Linux Community‘, a white paper.”

But there will be no big offices, no Linuxplex, and you won’t see Linus Torvalds on the cover of Forbes. “No one is expanding.”

So, I asked, what happened in 2008 to make 2009 look so bright?

Two things, Zemlin suggested.

Windows Vista has been a fiasco, and mobile form factors hit Linux’ sweet spot. (I’ve had this Australian Shiraz. Very drinkable. Try it with turkey tomorrow.)

“Microsoft had to keep XP around a lot longer than they had anticipated. It hurt their ability to sell Vista. It impacted their need to rush Windows 7, which looks a lot like Vista.”

Manufacturer disquiet led to experiments with the four-pound, no moving part Netbook, and Linux was ready with Intel’s quick boot architecture, which turns a Linux PC into an instant-on Internet appliance.

Now, “Every major PC maker is shipping Linux computers to consumers,” with HP and Dell starting to support the channel.

The one cloud on that horizon, as I noted in our Laptop Linux series, is incompatibility, which makes upgrading software a chore. The Foundation’s solution to that is the Linux Standard Base, but anyone’s decision to use it is “a commercial decision.”

Then there is mobile. While 2008 turned into the year the Linux Netbook broke through, 2009 will be the year when Linux mobile breaks through, Zemlin said.

Android, LiMo, and the 100% mobile source Moblin are all coming to market in a big way. Motorola is committed to Android, LiMo stands for Linux Mobile. ”Moblin specifically is a project to watch.”

My own opinion is that Apple made the breakthrough Linux mobile is now running through. The success of the iPhone in spurring data use is forcing carriers to come up with alternatives, and Linux is the fast way there.

“Linux has now reached a critical mass,” he concluded. “It would take billions of dollars to rewrite a kernel, or harden any operating system across all these forms of computing.”

If you want to make money next year, learn Linux.

“One of our biggest bottlenecks is going to be talent. My advice for engineers who are looking to weather this storm is learn Linux.” Then you’ll be toasting 2010 with Jim Zemlin as your sommelier.

I thought Linux won the OS fight a long time ago.

I expect to see Linux start creeping it's consumer marketshare. If Windows 7 is a disaster like Vista I see it spelling the downfall of Microsoft. They won't disappear, but will pull an IBM and tumble to the bottom.

Desktop Linux still has a long way to go, I see tons of glitches with Ubuntu. They have to be smoothed out before it can make its way into the average home.

I'm not surprised that Linux is starting to hit some limits, it's nearly 15 years old. It's actually the oldest kernel out there in big use. OSX and NT are about half the age of Linux.

A tad optimistic, IMO

I'm waiting for a windows 7 flop before putting on my shades

I think the real winner is the general open source mentality that is starting to take over the internet (i.e. "reality 2.0"). Everyone is sharing everything and its great.

Originally Posted by Xaqaria

I think the real winner is the general open source mentality that is starting to take over the internet (i.e. "reality 2.0"). Everyone is sharing everything and its great.

So back to usenet circa '92
great, I loved the net back then

Originally Posted by arby

A tad optimistic, IMO

Maybe, but there's a couple of areas that MS just can't touch

The biggy is netbooks
I cannot see MS competing in this area AT ALL
(personally, I think people buying windows on netbooks is just cause they don't know better - but it's not going to last)

Yeah, Intel's Atom CPU is great and all, x86 based so you can bung XP on Atom based netbooks

but nothing can touch ARM processors for power efficiency and cool running
(ARM has been used on mobile phones, routers and all other embedded devices since year dot - it's what ARM CPUs do best)

There's quite a few netbooks popping up now with ARM cpus, and they cannot run windows

Windows needs x86, and I don't see x86 being competative in the netbook sector (ARM based ones will simply decimate them in terms of price, heat (therefore size) & battery life)

x86 netbooks currently have 2-3 hours of battery life
compare that with 10+ hours with the ARM based mobile devices (the Pandora portable gaming machine is the perfect example - this uses complex 3D graphics and beats simple email & web browsing in terms of battery life)
what's going to sell better?

Also, XP just cannot compete with modern OSs (it's 8 years old for gods sake and they're trying to kill it, but can't)
and I don't think MS can slim down Vista or successors and still deliver an OS that rivals competitors - they'll just be featureless husks

(yeah, they do have CE, but seriously that's not a capable OS for netbooks - it's barely capable of running a PDA)

Originally Posted by Ynot

So back to usenet circa '92
great, I loved the net back then

I think large scale group innovation is a constant give and take between free exchange of information and the powers that be trying to stake their claim on it. I think the current wave of open source has the potential to break the hold of that power play.

We just might see a true revolution of thought within our lifetime.

Originally Posted by Xaqaria

We just might see a true revolution of thought within our lifetime.

Don't count on it.