A future so bright Tux needs shades

**Ynot** · 11-27-2008 05:26 AM

http://blogs.zdnet.com/open-source/?p=3126

To hear Linux Foundation executive director Jim Zemlin tell it, the operating system war is over and Linux has won. (Rockies Brewing makes other fine beers, too.)

“Linux represents the ultimate flight to safety in troubled times,” he said while offering some predictions for 2009.

“People want a platform they trust, that’s low cost, that allows them to consolidate infrastructure, and that’s Linux.

“Everyone uses Linux. It’s in the TV, it’s in your TiVo, it’s in all the settop boxes, it’s in your Sony camera. Make a trade on the NYSE and it’s there, search on Google and it’s Linux. Linux owns 85% of the supercomputer market. I’ve seen Linux in a milking machine.”

If Linux were a corporate effort its CEO would be into champagne wishes and caviar dreams. As it is, however, Zemlin is just looking for steady growth next year.

“The Foundation will continue to focus on the core things we do well. We’ll continue to support Linux and the kernel development. We’ll continue to work on the trademark.

“In April we’ll hold our Collaboration summit in San Francisco. We invited the Consumer Electronics Linux Forum to attend.

“We’ll expand the events we offer, including the first Linux Kernel Summit in Tokyo. We’ll be hosting the LinuxCon in September, and expect it to be successful. We’ll have content there for all communities. There will be rich training opportunities there.

“We’ll have more content on the Web. Expect more original research out of us. We authored ‘How to Participate in the Linux Community‘, a white paper.”

But there will be no big offices, no Linuxplex, and you won’t see Linus Torvalds on the cover of Forbes. “No one is expanding.”

So, I asked, what happened in 2008 to make 2009 look so bright?

Two things, Zemlin suggested.

Windows Vista has been a fiasco, and mobile form factors hit Linux’ sweet spot. (I’ve had this Australian Shiraz. Very drinkable. Try it with turkey tomorrow.)

“Microsoft had to keep XP around a lot longer than they had anticipated. It hurt their ability to sell Vista. It impacted their need to rush Windows 7, which looks a lot like Vista.”

Manufacturer disquiet led to experiments with the four-pound, no moving part Netbook, and Linux was ready with Intel’s quick boot architecture, which turns a Linux PC into an instant-on Internet appliance.

Now, “Every major PC maker is shipping Linux computers to consumers,” with HP and Dell starting to support the channel.

The one cloud on that horizon, as I noted in our Laptop Linux series, is incompatibility, which makes upgrading software a chore. The Foundation’s solution to that is the Linux Standard Base, but anyone’s decision to use it is “a commercial decision.”

Then there is mobile. While 2008 turned into the year the Linux Netbook broke through, 2009 will be the year when Linux mobile breaks through, Zemlin said.

Android, LiMo, and the 100% mobile source Moblin are all coming to market in a big way. Motorola is committed to Android, LiMo stands for Linux Mobile. ”Moblin specifically is a project to watch.”

My own opinion is that Apple made the breakthrough Linux mobile is now running through. The success of the iPhone in spurring data use is forcing carriers to come up with alternatives, and Linux is the fast way there.

“Linux has now reached a critical mass,” he concluded. “It would take billions of dollars to rewrite a kernel, or harden any operating system across all these forms of computing.”

If you want to make money next year, learn Linux.

“One of our biggest bottlenecks is going to be talent. My advice for engineers who are looking to weather this storm is learn Linux.” Then you’ll be toasting 2010 with Jim Zemlin as your sommelier.

**ninja9578** · 11-27-2008 07:11 AM

I thought Linux won the OS fight a long time ago.

I expect to see Linux start creeping it's consumer marketshare. If Windows 7 is a disaster like Vista I see it spelling the downfall of Microsoft. They won't disappear, but will pull an IBM and tumble to the bottom.

Desktop Linux still has a long way to go, I see tons of glitches with Ubuntu. They have to be smoothed out before it can make its way into the average home.

I'm not surprised that Linux is starting to hit some limits, it's nearly 15 years old. It's actually the oldest kernel out there in big use. OSX and NT are about half the age of Linux.

**arby** · 11-27-2008 05:02 PM

A tad optimistic, IMO

I'm waiting for a windows 7 flop before putting on my shades

**Xaqaria** · 11-28-2008 08:06 AM

I think the real winner is the general open source mentality that is starting to take over the internet (i.e. "reality 2.0"). Everyone is sharing everything and its great.

**Ynot** · 11-28-2008 09:32 AM

Originally Posted by Xaqaria

I think the real winner is the general open source mentality that is starting to take over the internet (i.e. "reality 2.0"). Everyone is sharing everything and its great.

So back to usenet circa '92
great, I loved the net back then

Originally Posted by arby

A tad optimistic, IMO

Maybe, but there's a couple of areas that MS just can't touch

The biggy is netbooks
I cannot see MS competing in this area AT ALL
(personally, I think people buying windows on netbooks is just cause they don't know better - but it's not going to last)

Yeah, Intel's Atom CPU is great and all, x86 based so you can bung XP on Atom based netbooks

but nothing can touch ARM processors for power efficiency and cool running
(ARM has been used on mobile phones, routers and all other embedded devices since year dot - it's what ARM CPUs do best)

There's quite a few netbooks popping up now with ARM cpus, and they cannot run windows

Windows needs x86, and I don't see x86 being competative in the netbook sector (ARM based ones will simply decimate them in terms of price, heat (therefore size) & battery life)

x86 netbooks currently have 2-3 hours of battery life
compare that with 10+ hours with the ARM based mobile devices (the Pandora portable gaming machine is the perfect example - this uses complex 3D graphics and beats simple email & web browsing in terms of battery life)
what's going to sell better?

Also, XP just cannot compete with modern OSs (it's 8 years old for gods sake and they're trying to kill it, but can't)
and I don't think MS can slim down Vista or successors and still deliver an OS that rivals competitors - they'll just be featureless husks

(yeah, they do have CE, but seriously that's not a capable OS for netbooks - it's barely capable of running a PDA)

**Xaqaria** · 11-28-2008 09:51 AM

Originally Posted by Ynot

So back to usenet circa '92
great, I loved the net back then

I think large scale group innovation is a constant give and take between free exchange of information and the powers that be trying to stake their claim on it. I think the current wave of open source has the potential to break the hold of that power play.

We just might see a true revolution of thought within our lifetime.

**drewmandan** · 11-28-2008 03:46 PM

Originally Posted by Xaqaria

We just might see a true revolution of thought within our lifetime.

Don't count on it.

**Volcon** · 11-30-2008 09:37 PM

Linux is good, vista is underated IMO, but i won't get into that. The problem i see is that Linux will not be able to grab the gaming population because companies develope for Mac and Windows, all the little kids, teens, and adults who play games play it on those systems, it's going to be very hard for linux to steal that very large market.

**Ynot** · 12-01-2008 01:58 AM

Originally Posted by Volcon

Linux is good, vista is underated IMO, but i won't get into that. The problem i see is that Linux will not be able to grab the gaming population because companies develope for Mac and Windows, all the little kids, teens, and adults who play games play it on those systems, it's going to be very hard for linux to steal that very large market.

got to disagree with you

Games will go where the largest audience is
be that Windows, Linux, Mac, or consoles

Ironically, 7-8 years ago there were a fair number of Linux games on the shelves of stores
Most were ported by Loki Software

But really, gamers are a minority
We need the business users (and we're getting them)

Once we're up to 5% market share (about 3-4% currently) then games may start coming (natively) to Linux

Again, games will go where the largest audience is
but I don't think games (as a software genre) has the weight to affect OS choice

gamers will go where the games are
games will go where the largest audiences are
the largest audience is professional work related computing

**drewmandan** · 12-01-2008 05:51 PM

Originally Posted by Ynot

Once we're up to 5% market share (about 3-4% currently) then games may start coming (natively) to Linux

I can't see that happening. I don't really have a rational argument here. But my gut tells me that game companies won't start developing for an open source platform. There's too much weird legality there. When something is free, it's hard to write up contracts. For example, openGL used to be used in games, but now it isn't. Care to explain that?

**Ynot** · 12-01-2008 11:05 PM

OpenGL is used in anything non-microsoft

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenGL_ES

Usage

OpenGL ES has been chosen as the official 3D graphics API in Symbian OS [2] and the Android platform [3].
OpenGL ES 1.0 plus some features of 1.1 and Cg are supported by the Playstation 3 as one of official graphics APIs [4] (the other one being low level libgcm library).
OpenGL ES 1.1[5] is used as the 3D library for the iPhone SDK.[6]
OpenGL ES 2.0 will be used as the 3D library for the Pandora console.

Also the Wii's main graphics system (while proprietary) is based on OpenGL

Originally Posted by drewmandan

But my gut tells me that game companies won't start developing for an open source platform. There's too much weird legality there.

Weird legalities? like what?

**drewmandan** · 12-02-2008 12:16 AM

Originally Posted by Ynot

Weird legalities? like what?

I'm not sure. But there has to be a reason I haven't seen a popular PC game support openGL for a decade.

**Ynot** · 12-02-2008 12:21 AM

many default to D3D under windows, but lots of games support OpenGL

World of Warcraft does OpenGL

**drewmandan** · 12-02-2008 12:37 AM

Originally Posted by Ynot

many default to D3D under windows, but lots of games support OpenGL

World of Warcraft does OpenGL

Oh yeah, that's right. What was the last AAA shooter with openGL?

**Ynot** · 12-02-2008 12:54 AM

Don't know about last
but Quake 3 Arena
(and other games based on the same engine - Tremulous, Urban Terror, World of Padman)

**arby** · 12-02-2008 12:56 AM

Unreal engine 3 has a OpenGL Release. That essentially counts for a large handful of current games and plenty of games into the future.

**Ynot** · 12-02-2008 01:02 AM

^^ there we go

anyway,
choice of graphics API really doesn't have any impact on a game (per se)

**no-Name** · 12-02-2008 01:15 AM

finnally... the golden age of linux.

**ninja9578** · 12-04-2008 04:18 PM

Originally Posted by drewmandan

I can't see that happening. I don't really have a rational argument here. But my gut tells me that game companies won't start developing for an open source platform. There's too much weird legality there. When something is free, it's hard to write up contracts. For example, openGL used to be used in games, but now it isn't. Care to explain that?

It's used for almost EVERY game. Windows games are the only ones that don't use it. People keep forgetting that Windows isn't the largest gaming platform, it's not even close. Wii dominates the game market and their games are exclusively OpenGL, PS2 is the 2nd most popular platform, it's also only OpenGL, PS3 is the 3rd most popular platform, also only OpenGL.

OpenGL dominates the gaming market.

They don't need to write licenses for it, they are all covered by the GNU License. Linux too, Linux dominates the mobile market largely because it's free to use.

**Ynot** · 02-03-2010 03:57 PM

Whomp!!

http://www.pcpro.co.uk/news/355246/a...ithout-windows

ARM: our netbooks will fly with or without Windows

ARM chief executive Warren East has claimed that netbooks could swallow 90% of the PC market, in an exclusive interview with PC Pro.

The British chip design firm, which is the biggest rival to Intel's dominant Atom processors in the netbook space, claims the low-budget laptops could transform the PC market. And East says the chip firm will succeed "with our without" Windows support for its processors.

"Although netbooks are small today – maybe 10% of the PC market at most – we believe over the next several years that could completely change around and that could be 90% of the PC market," said East. "We see those products as an area for a lot of innovation and we want that innovation to be happening around the ARM architecture."

East claims ARM already has several processors inside the typical netbook, but it wants the final piece of the jigsaw - the CPU. "Let’s say you go and buy a laptop today. You’ll find the application processor is an Intel device or an AMD device. Typically you’ll also be buying two or three ARM microprocessors," East claimed.

"Chances are it’s an ARM in the Wi-Fi or Bluetooth. More often than not there’s an ARM in the hard disk drive and sometimes there’s an ARM in the integrated camera as well. Not to mention the ARM that’s in the printer that you may or may not have bought to go with it."

"Right now there’s only one microprocessor in the PC that probably isn’t ARM and that’s the applications processor. Certainly what we’re talking about over the next few years – particularly with netbooks, not with PCs – is the opportunity for those to be ARM."

No point in chasing Windows

One significant barrier to ARM CPUs in netbooks is Windows' lack of support for the company's processors. East admits it's a problem. "If we were to wake up tomorrow and find Windows support for ARM it would certainly accelerate ARM penetration in that space," he said.

"What’s holding it back is people’s love of the Microsoft operating system and that fact that it’s familiar and so on. But actually the trajectory of progress in the Linux world is very, very impressive. I think it’s only a matter of time for ARM to gain market share with or without Microsoft."

And the ARM boss claims he's not pestering Microsoft to broaden Windows' processor support. "There’s not really a huge amount of point in us knocking on Microsoft’s door," he said. "Microsoft knows us very well, it’s worked with us for the past 12 years, all its mobile products are based on ARM.

"It’s really an operational decision for Microsoft to make. I don’t think there’s any major technical barriers. Microsoft’s well aware of the technical support we can provide to them, but it is an operational challenge for them, and one that only they can work out. We can’t really help them with it."

Asked whether he felt Microsoft's long-term ally, Intel, would be applying pressure on the software giant to withhold support for ARM, East said: "Maybe they would, but Microsoft has to run Microsoft, not Intel."

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