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    1. #1
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      The Collapse of the Economy and Society

      Hey folks,

      I was recently having a really indepth conversation with my brother and sister about what could happen as a result of when oil runs out. I think its really important that we all think about this because this is a likely scenario based on how things are going at the moment.

      Below is the most common prediction of events which will follow if oil does happen to run out.

      The Common Prediction


      We will rely on oil and other natural resources whilst they still remain. But as oil and other natural resources begin to run out we will see an increase in overall oil prices as its value increases. But it is not when oil runs out that we will see big changes. It is expected that just before oil runs out there will be a lot of media coverage and this will raise panic amongst the general public. People will begin to worry, they will try and prepare for the events that will follow, and with it being such a widespread issue it will effect the majority of the worlds population.

      With the public in panic it is only human nature for us to prepare for what lies ahead, so it is expected that many people will buy lots of supplies in the hope that it will help them survive. But since it will be happening on such a widespread scale it is expected that there will be looting and worse, people will be so desperate to get what they need to survive that it will eventually cause riots. We will try and do whatever we can to stay alive and assure our own survival and when we find means of survival in a civilised way i think it is obvious that people will go for any options they have, even if it means stealing off their neighbours.

      It is likely that the government will try and control the outbreak of riots, but with oil about to run out things are only going to get worse. With the huge majority of the public rioting it is likely that they will overpower the governments attempts to keep order. During this first wave it is expected that many people will die, mainly due to the riots, but this is only the beginning. The government will eventually lose all control over the public and despite attempts to maintain order it is even more difficult when oil is running out.

      Politicians are expected to crack under the pressure and give up. They will most likely abandon their posts and begin to fight for survival just like the rest of us. But the next wave worsens the situation more. Oil is now expected to have run out, thought it could happen at any stage and have the same effects. There will be no production of food around the world and with the riots continuing the supply of food will shortly come to an end.

      With this taking place it is likely that there will be widespread death across the world due to starvation, especially to those who are not capable of looking after themselves. It will literally become survival of the fittest. People will do anything to keep alive and with the shortage of food it is likely that people will go as far as killing each other for food. It sounds unlikely but it very realistic if you consider what some people will do for survival.

      There is also another big factor which we will be faced with, when and if this occurs we will find it very hard to trust each other. Suspicion of others will likely end up in many deaths across the world. It is alot safer to kill our neighbour and be sure that he/she won't be able to kill you first. This unfortunately is the only way we can be 100% sure of our safety when around others since trust will become very difficult to achieve. We cannot take the risk of being murdered through the night because of a lack of trust, it is easier to go for the more definitave action. As sad as it sound, it is true, people will do anything to assure their own survival, even if it means killing our best friend.

      With no order in place at all and there being an increase death rate across the planet it is expected that we will eventually have to seek a new source of food. This will mainly rely on hunting of animals, killing and cooking our own food. Food supplies will run out and once it does our survival skills will be put to the ultimate test. With so many people seeking food it is likely that there will be some competition when hunting also. It has even been debated that some may even turn to canibalism for the sake of their own survival. Though a chilling thought, it could get alot more real if these events do happen.

      As more people die as a result of starvation it is most probable that population numbers will begin to level out enough that we don't need to compete for food as much as we did before. We can expect to see trust return to people, as more people learn how to cope with this current lifestyle it is expected that groups or gangs will form. When we have more manpower we can expect our chances of survival to increase. But this does not happen in one place, it will happen all over the world. There will still be competition for food but it is likely that there will even gang wars and fights over land. Small communities will begin to form again. But their will be no true source of currency, the only source of currency that is expected to arise during these events is weaponry. Weapons can keep us safe and they will increase in value as people get there hands on them. It is more than likely that the gang with the most weapons and the bigger army will dominate areas and begin to take over.

      Once a certain community takes over the larger part of the land it is likely that a leader will be elected to govern the community, but in order to rule such a huge amount of people the leader needs to make sure that he/she will not be overthrown, so the only way to keep everyone in order is to create a dictatorship. Rules will be set in stone and those who do not follow the rules will be made examples of to put fear into everyone else to make sure that nobody will stand out of line.

      But this is not the end of our worries, even with a form of control over populations we will get suspicious of other communities out there. The media informs us of what is happening around the world and it makes us feel safe to know that nothing is threatening us. But with no strict form of media we will have no guarantee that our neighbouring country is not about to attack and invade our land. This could lead to many wars and fights over suspicion.

      I will end the prediction there since the events would even end up looping, would we learn from out mistakes? It is likely that we will not, but if we don't learn it is even more likely that these events will continue to loop.

      However, even with all these factors we still have to consider issues such as global warming, this could increase the amount of deaths also. There is also disease, with us not having a doctor anymore we will be more prone to disease and many more will die. This is strongly influenced by the living conditions we may be faced with. Life expectancy will surely drop due to diseases taking many lives.

      Alternatives?

      Of course, this theory is only valid to a degree if we find a good alternate source of energy such as green energy. But even now scientists are finding it hard to significantly improve green energy to meet our everyday needs. The technology is simply not good enough as of yet, the above prediction is likely to occur if we don't come up with an alternative source of energy.

      There is of course nuclear power, however it is a very dangerous and leaves behind lots of nuclear waste which takes millions of years to break down. We simply cannot rely on this source of energy since it would mean that we would produce lots of nuclear waste which would be both bad for us and the environment. Then we have to consider how dangerous nuclear power can be, consider if there was an accident at a powerplant which resulted in a meltdown. These are all variables and there is no simple path to follow when trying to sort out these issues.

      In the next few decades we are going to see some significant changes, whether they are good or bad is completely up to us. To be honest with you i think that unless we find some miracle source of energy which is both clean and efficient and can power the world, i can't see the outcome being good, all we can really do as of now is dampen the effects of this crisis which will fall upon us eventually. It's up to us to make these decisions, but judging by the concern of the general public i think that the discussed events will occur. People just don't give a crap, they are all too happy to just regard it as someone elses problem.

      My Opinion -I believe that unless we have a big development and breakthrough in which a new source of clean and efficient energy is found we are going to see the collapse of both the economy and society as we know it. I think that we have gotten too used to our luxuries, we are so used to our cozy lifestyles that it has made us blind to what could happen, many people seem to believe that things will sort themselves out. But in reality, this is something that our governments are not even well prepared for, we can hope that the government have a big procedure in place if this does in fact happen, but then again, they are only human, they are only out to make themselves money to assure their own survival. I think that governments will have a few basic measures in place for this situation which will most likely fail. I think that we have simply pushed things too far. In my opinion we are in for some big changes, and the sooner we realise it the sooner we can try and at least dampen its effects.

      These scenarios are very real, we need to do something about this now before it is too late, sure you can live your lifestyle of luxury, but when and if this happens you will find that it will hit you harder if you know that you have done nothing to try and prevent it.

      Sorry to sound all doomsday but i feel strongly about this and we all need to realise that our future is in our hands, we can't expect someone else to do everything for us because handling events such as this is just too much to ask.

      Anyways, please do feel free to discuss this, there are many areas which can be debated about this, i really appreciate your thoughts on this serious issue.


    2. #2
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      The "peak oil" scenario sounds bad, but the thing is it just doesn't stop one day. There is a gradual decline over years, and people will adapt. We have lived thru "peak wood" and "peak coal". The technology could be developed, if necessary--it could be done now, if there weren't so many opposing it due to political (power, money) reasons.

      However, there are other reasons to believe that a doomsday scenario may occur. I think an pandemic may be the most likely cause.

    3. #3
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      I realise that it takes years for its gradual reduction, but even still, if you look at the growth in the population and the demands for oil and fuels it can only start to run out faster, and when it gets to the point of becoming to expensive to afford it is likely that maybe a similar scenario will occur. But these are all very real. We have all adapted, thats what makes us a sucessful species, were good at adapting to oru surroundings, but what i fear is that so many are used to their everyday comforts that they would find it difficult when faced with such an issue.

      We are well overdue for some form of a doomsday scenario, i mean you also have to consider the giant super voclano underneath Yellowstone National Park. That apparantly goes off every 600,000 or more years. And the last eruption was apparantly about 620,000 or more years ago.Its well overdue to erupt again apparantly, what a wonderful world we live in


    4. #4
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      Yea they may not come up with anything in time; that's true. Poor people all over will suffer more and more; with over-population and the degradation of the environment that will be true anyway probably. That's why ever disaster gets so many people nowadays; they're just living everywhere, so any thing that happens wipes out so many. Also better news coverage I guess makes it seem that way.

      I saw a dramatization of the Yellowstone Volcano; that would be a bummer. I didn't realize it was so over-due. As is a flu pandemic.

      It will be interesting to see if it's all at once or long slow process. I bet it will be something no one expected.

    5. #5
      Xei
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      Fortunately with the oil age has come with things that do not dimish; namely a vast knowledge of science. It would be, in my opinion, ludicrously easy to establish enough renewable energy sources to power most countries. For example, in Britain we are about to build a dam across the Severn Estuary for something like £10bn, which will provide something like 15% of our power. So, for a tiny fraction of our GDP, we are powering 15% of the country. In my opinion it's scandalous that we aren't entirely reliant on renewable energy sources by now, along with most other MEDCs; the problem is that no politician looks forwards more than 5 years. It's disgusting really, because the the results of having none when the oil runs out will be, as has been said, mostly pretty terrible. Fortunately Britain has enough unmined coal to possibly get us through the dark period, but for other countries it might not be so easy.

      Oh, and there's the fusion reactor, although that's ridiculously underfunded and the resultant timescale (10 years) shows again how politicians just don't seem to understand what's going on at all.
      I bet it will be something no one expected.
      That's what you expect, is it?

    6. #6
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      The truth is that we know what will eventually happen, but we can only really try and dampen its effects. But i think that we should take further action as individuals, its far to easy to say "oh, well there will be a renewable source of energy in place by the time oil nearly runs out". But to be honest we should be preparing anyway, we have a tough time ahead of us and the less we rely on others to solve our own problems the more likely we are to cope during this period that is yet to come.

      Yes, there is a lot of current technology and research into new sources of energy, but to be quite honest, even if we were to jump the gun and skip out the crisis, it would only be a few more decades until we face problems like nowhere to put waste. Landfills in the UK are becoming bigger and bigger and space is running out, even with recycling it is not enough. And if that does not get us there is still global warming, until we see clean energy taking a primary role in society there is plenty of time for us to do more damage to the environment by burning fossil fuels.

      The outcomes are endless, but i think that 21st century is going to get very interesting as it progresses and hopefully there will be many lessons learnt.


    7. #7
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      Quote Originally Posted by Lucid Seeker View Post
      Landfills in the UK are becoming bigger and bigger and space is running out, even with recycling it is not enough.
      I've thought for a long time that one day we will be mining our dumps, and I actually saw a headline about that recently.

      Invest in land-fills! The gold-mines of the future.

      If there is a future, that is.

    8. #8
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      I don't think that there would be all of that chaos and stuff. Oil is dying. People are already wanting to switch to electric cars and stuff because of global warming and environmental reasons. And when gas is getting really expensive, people will simply start using another fuel.

      I doubt any of those events would come to pass.
      While there is a lower class, I am in it.
      While there is a criminal element, I am of it.
      While there is a soul in prison, I am not free.
      -Eugene V. Debs

    9. #9
      Xei
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      Quote Originally Posted by Harrycombs View Post
      I don't think that there would be all of that chaos and stuff. Oil is dying. People are already wanting to switch to electric cars and stuff
      That's ridiculous. You think the modern world can cope without oil? You think there will be a billion electric powered cars by 2020, when it will become impossible to travel with oil? And what about the plastics industry? Or the generation of electricity?
      And when gas is getting really expensive, people will simply start using another fuel.
      Uh such as?
      global warming and environmental reasons.
      Firstly, nobody is doing anything that makes any difference about those things anyway. Secondly, even if global warming were real, the issue of what will happen when oil runs out is hundreds times more important to society.

      I don't mean to be rude, I just think you're being a bit naive about this.

      World hunger, transportation, energy generation, pollution, creating plastics; all these things could be dealt with with remarkable ease if countries would just invest instead of acting like a bunch of scumbags with no care for what happens in 10 years. I mean, I reckon the amount of money that the US spends on developing and creating pointless weapons in a year would be enough to develop enough sustainable energy sources to power the whole continent for a century. Solving global warming would be a by-product of solving the above, although I personally believe that's just natural cycles.
      Last edited by Xei; 11-17-2007 at 04:24 PM.

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