Thread: Why i think the USA won't Nuke or invade Iran

We all know about the controversies with Irans nuclear program. Atleast i hope you know about it, if you don't you can stop reading this right now

So here is the thing. There are lots of sanctions on Iran by a number of countries,and Irans relations witht he west are strained at best. Obviously none of this is dettering iran and they are cho choing their way to being part of the Nuclear club with the USA/UN/EU muttering in the background saying you cant do that. In large part because of the international uproar about irans nuclear program the nuclear issue has become part of pride for iranians and if they were to back out of it now they would look like pussies and their collective egos would be smushed atleast in the eyes of irans citizens.

Now the USA hasn't ruled out a pre emptive strike or some sort of military action against Iran, but says it wants to exhaust all other possibilites which doesn't look likely. Now let me mention Iran learned well from Iraqs failed attempted nuclear profileration. Iraq concentrated all their facilities into one building which israel consequently bombed...that was the end of that.

Iran has its nuclear facilities spaced out in the east of the country in bunkers,which if not out of range of israeli bombers atleast the facillities are harder to get to.

Now here is why the USA will not bomb Iran. Or atleast why i think so.

Irans largest trading partner is China. China as you know is an energy starved nation needing lots of gas,oil and coal. Some examples of these are in china every week 1 coal plant is built. Remember the bad weather china just had? Well China has to halt all coal exports for 2 months because some plants were running out of coal if not already out of coal because of the transporation problems. see how energy starved they are?

Imagine if China lost its imports from Iran or if the imports were threatened.
What would that do china and the worlds economy if China lost that valuable energy source?

Imagine how pissed of china would be at the USA meddling with one of its major trading partners ?(not to mention russia which does good business with iran to)

And if thats not all there is more icing on the cake, Bejing and Tehran are negotiating placing a chinese military base within Iran. If the USA bombs Iran will that be seen as an agresion on China? Not to mention the USA is heavily in debt to china over the iraq war and other things but the USA needs China and China needs the USA to. China has a large market to export to and the USA has a place to get cheap goods. Its a match made in heaven why would they want to potentailly fuck up the world economy and cause World War III with each otehr who are both major trading partnets with one onother?

I know i know like no one read my rambling post. So be it!!! For those of you who did if there is anyone.

Comments/ideas would be welcome, discuss!!

We are already fighting Iranians in Iraq, and they are being funded by the Iranian government. If it comes down to extreme necessity, we will invade Iran and overthrow their government. What is China going to do about it? Commit suicide?

Dragon, you seem to be overwhelmingly obsessed with my country. Most of the posts I have read from you on this site have been about my country, where you do not even live. I hope you know that such obsessive preoccupation gives us Americans the idea that we are a big deal. Do you really want to drive that image into us like that? Maybe you should wrap your life up in your own country.

From what I've read (some articles from Seymour Hersh), the primary reason that the US will not attack Iran is that the SecDef, Robert Gates, has been winning a behind-the-scenes turf battle with the Vice President, who has been gunning for war among top officials in the Pentagon (who, presumably, inform the president and congress that war is/is not necessary).

Cheney has his own reasons for pursuing war with Iran, but it wouldn't surprise me if Gates has been reminding top Pentagon officials of what you've mentioned. The Chinese government would be furious, as would most other countries around the world, and China's economic status is an excellent reason to keep relations warm.

I suppose this is why Cheney gave the nod to Israel that they should strike first, though they're apparently not as eager for the conflict as he is. That said, I'm not that sure that nothing will happen before the next president takes office.

UN Inspector Scott Ritter: Only Fools Would Nuke Iran(2.5 minute video)

That, is why the US won't invade Iran.

I definitely don't think we need to nuke Iran, but we might end up having to invade them. Then what? Is China going to invade us? Hell no. We have enough nukes to blow up the entire world dozens of times over, and we have an armed citizenry. That means our country is one big military.

Originally Posted by Universal Mind

I definitely don't think we need to nuke Iran, but we might end up having to invade them. Then what? Is China going to invade us? Hell no. We have enough nukes to blow up the entire world dozens of times over, and we have an armed citizenry. That means our country is one big military.

Relying on effectively an untrained militia? Whilst numbers might be impressive, in reality, it'll mean shit. A professional soldier is far superior in terms of ability (even the common grunts), so that 'militia' comment doesn't really hold.

First of all, the army has a chain of command and a communications system which allows all troops to be directed... the armed people don't have that. At most, they would form small pockets of resistance, but in the face of an organised assault, they simply won't do much.

So if anything, relying on a large pool of armed citizens will not stop an invasion. May make it a little harder in places, but it won't stop it. An organised army with good supplies and a good chain of command will always be able to defeat larger militias or armies, as long as they have weaknesses to exploit.

One thing you could say is that the militia has knowledge of the terrain. That in itself can provide a big advantage to any resistance, if it is used properly. Now, modern warfare may not exactly happen in the same way ancient warfare was conducted, as discussed in great detail in The Art Of War by Sun Tzu, but there are many principles in that book that can still be applied to great effect in this day and age.

Providing the Chinese generals aren't well-versed in their own famous piece of literature on Warfare, then you can expect the militia to cause some annoyance towards any invading army. However, any such militia would need to have knowledge of terrain, be well supplied, and need to know guerilla tactics and warfare in order to make themselves useful, and I doubt that all armed citizens would have or know these three things.

So I say this. The Chinese army is huge. The US army is technologically advanced and is generally well supplied. Now, if things did come to a crunch, I doubt nukes would be used. Secondly, The US army would be contending with a considerably larger force, and so, if it wants to be successful, it would have to initiate a different set of strategies in order to really be effective against any such invasion. This may mean losing land to the Chinese in order to lure them into strategically advantageous situations. This would require great amounts of manoeuvring and discipline, something that a militia can never hope to do.

Of course, this is all theoretical. But I do enjoy talking about stratagems.

Well, no shit, the US isn't going to invade Iran. They're already fighting two fronts and their economy won't be able to handle another blow. They'll deal with the problem in more discreet ways, most likely. Cue conspiracy: Divide and conquer. They'll split the population and spark a civil war. They did it with the Black Panthers. They did it with the Sunnis and Shiate in Iraq. And they could do it again. If you can't deal with the problem from without, deal with in from within. Either that, or they'll use one of the older divisions and get a few Middle Eastern countries to do it.

Originally Posted by Universal Mind

I definitely don't think we need to nuke Iran, but we might end up having to invade them. Then what? Is China going to invade us? Hell no. We have enough nukes to blow up the entire world dozens of times over, and we have an armed citizenry. That means our country is one big military.

The issue is more complicated then if they get in you're way you nuke them.

Like someone else said the USA's economy and Chinas economy are intertwined. I read somwhere in the next couple decades china will surpass canada as your biggest trading partner. You could seriously cripple the chinese economy by causing such instability in Iran, which would all most certainly not be good for the world economy especially your countries econommy since you are heavily indebted to china and you both thrive off trade with eachother.

Apparently you guys are borrwing lots of money from china to finance the iraq war, i dont think china will borrow you the money to invade one of their largest trading partners.

Originally Posted by bluefinger

Relying on effectively an untrained militia? Whilst numbers might be impressive, in reality, it'll mean shit. A professional soldier is far superior in terms of ability (even the common grunts), so that 'militia' comment doesn't really hold.

It does hold. Of course a trained military is much more skillful than citizens with guns. I am saying we have a nation of citizens with guns IN ADDITION to the best military in the world IN ADDITION to the ability to blow up the world dozens of times over. China will never invade us.

Originally Posted by dragonoverlord

The issue is more complicated then if they get in you're way you nuke them.

Like someone else said the USA's economy and Chinas economy are intertwined. I read somwhere in the next couple decades china will surpass canada as your biggest trading partner. You could seriously cripple the chinese economy by causing such instability in Iran, which would all most certainly not be good for the world economy especially your countries econommy since you are heavily indebted to china and you both thrive off trade with eachother.

Apparently you guys are borrwing lots of money from china to finance the iraq war, i dont think china will borrow you the money to invade one of their largest trading partners.

China knows that if they invaded us they would not have a country any more. It is never going to happen. And the fact that we have borrowed money from China to fight in Iraq does not mean we wouldn't have been able to do it without them.

I'm sure someone has mentioned this already, but China would love for us to invade Iran. They already have the U.S. in their pockets so any financial gain the U.S. could glean from an Iran invasion would basically be handed directly over to China. Do you think they would rather buy oil from Iran or have the U.S. give it to them to pay off our debt?