Why i think the USA won't Nuke or invade Iran

[dragonoverlord]

We all know about the controversies with Irans nuclear program. Atleast i hope you know about it, if you don't you can stop reading this right now So here is the thing. There are lots of sanctions on Iran by a number of countries,and Irans relations witht he west are strained at best. Obviously none of this is dettering iran and they are cho choing their way to being part of the Nuclear club with the USA/UN/EU muttering in the background saying you cant do that. In large part because of the international uproar about irans nuclear program the nuclear issue has become part of pride for iranians and if they were to back out of it now they would look like pussies and their collective egos would be smushed atleast in the eyes of irans citizens. Now the USA hasn't ruled out a pre emptive strike or some sort of military action against Iran, but says it wants to exhaust all other possibilites which doesn't look likely. Now let me mention Iran learned well from Iraqs failed attempted nuclear profileration. Iraq concentrated all their facilities into one building which israel consequently bombed...that was the end of that. Iran has its nuclear facilities spaced out in the east of the country in bunkers,which if not out of range of israeli bombers atleast the facillities are harder to get to. Now here is why the USA will not bomb Iran. Or atleast why i think so. Irans largest trading partner is China. China as you know is an energy starved nation needing lots of gas,oil and coal. Some examples of these are in china every week 1 coal plant is built. Remember the bad weather china just had? Well China has to halt all coal exports for 2 months because some plants were running out of coal if not already out of coal because of the transporation problems. see how energy starved they are? Imagine if China lost its imports from Iran or if the imports were threatened. What would that do china and the worlds economy if China lost that valuable energy source? Imagine how pissed of china would be at the USA meddling with one of its major trading partners ?(not to mention russia which does good business with iran to) And if thats not all there is more icing on the cake, Bejing and Tehran are negotiating placing a chinese military base within Iran. If the USA bombs Iran will that be seen as an agresion on China? Not to mention the USA is heavily in debt to china over the iraq war and other things but the USA needs China and China needs the USA to. China has a large market to export to and the USA has a place to get cheap goods. Its a match made in heaven why would they want to potentailly fuck up the world economy and cause World War III with each otehr who are both major trading partnets with one onother? I know i know like no one read my rambling post. So be it!!! For those of you who did if there is anyone. Comments/ideas would be welcome, discuss!!

[Universal Mind]

We are already fighting Iranians in Iraq, and they are being funded by the Iranian government. If it comes down to extreme necessity, we will invade Iran and overthrow their government. What is China going to do about it? Commit suicide? Dragon, you seem to be overwhelmingly obsessed with my country. Most of the posts I have read from you on this site have been about my country, where you do not even live. I hope you know that such obsessive preoccupation gives us Americans the idea that we are a big deal. Do you really want to drive that image into us like that? Maybe you should wrap your life up in your own country.

[R.D.735]

From what I've read (some articles from Seymour Hersh), the primary reason that the US will not attack Iran is that the SecDef, Robert Gates, has been winning a behind-the-scenes turf battle with the Vice President, who has been gunning for war among top officials in the Pentagon (who, presumably, inform the president and congress that war is/is not necessary). Cheney has his own reasons for pursuing war with Iran, but it wouldn't surprise me if Gates has been reminding top Pentagon officials of what you've mentioned. The Chinese government would be furious, as would most other countries around the world, and China's economic status is an excellent reason to keep relations warm. I suppose this is why Cheney gave the nod to Israel that they should strike first, though they're apparently not as eager for the conflict as he is. That said, I'm not that sure that nothing will happen before the next president takes office.

[Bearsy]

UN Inspector Scott Ritter: Only Fools Would Nuke Iran(2.5 minute video) That, is why the US won't invade Iran.

[Universal Mind]

I definitely don't think we need to nuke Iran, but we might end up having to invade them. Then what? Is China going to invade us? Hell no. We have enough nukes to blow up the entire world dozens of times over, and we have an armed citizenry. That means our country is one big military.

[bluefinger]

I definitely don't think we need to nuke Iran, but we might end up having to invade them. Then what? Is China going to invade us? Hell no. We have enough nukes to blow up the entire world dozens of times over, and we have an armed citizenry. That means our country is one big military. Relying on effectively an untrained militia? Whilst numbers might be impressive, in reality, it'll mean shit. A professional soldier is far superior in terms of ability (even the common grunts), so that 'militia' comment doesn't really hold. First of all, the army has a chain of command and a communications system which allows all troops to be directed... the armed people don't have that. At most, they would form small pockets of resistance, but in the face of an organised assault, they simply won't do much. So if anything, relying on a large pool of armed citizens will not stop an invasion. May make it a little harder in places, but it won't stop it. An organised army with good supplies and a good chain of command will always be able to defeat larger militias or armies, as long as they have weaknesses to exploit. One thing you could say is that the militia has knowledge of the terrain. That in itself can provide a big advantage to any resistance, if it is used properly. Now, modern warfare may not exactly happen in the same way ancient warfare was conducted, as discussed in great detail in The Art Of War by Sun Tzu, but there are many principles in that book that can still be applied to great effect in this day and age. Providing the Chinese generals aren't well-versed in their own famous piece of literature on Warfare, then you can expect the militia to cause some annoyance towards any invading army. However, any such militia would need to have knowledge of terrain, be well supplied, and need to know guerilla tactics and warfare in order to make themselves useful, and I doubt that all armed citizens would have or know these three things. So I say this. The Chinese army is huge. The US army is technologically advanced and is generally well supplied. Now, if things did come to a crunch, I doubt nukes would be used. Secondly, The US army would be contending with a considerably larger force, and so, if it wants to be successful, it would have to initiate a different set of strategies in order to really be effective against any such invasion. This may mean losing land to the Chinese in order to lure them into strategically advantageous situations. This would require great amounts of manoeuvring and discipline, something that a militia can never hope to do. Of course, this is all theoretical. But I do enjoy talking about stratagems.

[Kushna Mufeed]

Well, no shit, the US isn't going to invade Iran. They're already fighting two fronts and their economy won't be able to handle another blow. They'll deal with the problem in more discreet ways, most likely. Cue conspiracy: Divide and conquer. They'll split the population and spark a civil war. They did it with the Black Panthers. They did it with the Sunnis and Shiate in Iraq. And they could do it again. If you can't deal with the problem from without, deal with in from within. Either that, or they'll use one of the older divisions and get a few Middle Eastern countries to do it.

[Ne-yo]

Now we all know a strike against Iran is inevitable, it's just a matter of when? Iran is at the top of the (U.S. "Bad Countries" List). So a military operation in Iran is rather probable. First of all the Iraq war and Iran Tensions cross-over one another with ease. It's been revealed that al-Qaida leaders might be hiding somewhere in Iran and guess what? Tehran did not deny this. There are two justifications for an invasion to take place, supporting terrorist and the development of weapons of mass destruction. These two justifications were enough for the U.S. to invade Iraq, and it did not matter that they eventually turned out to be fake. It does not look like anyone over at the Bush's administration will try to find a good basis this time. One is left to hope the present pressure on Iran will remain only psychological. However, previous events in Iraq have proven that Washington prefers to shoot first and if thats the way it goes down then so be it.

[Alric]

Attacking Iran would be stupid and I think our government wants to do. I think the pressure is getting to the people higher up though. Invading Iran at the moment is just going to crash our economy. No one is going to invade us, thats just silly. They are not going to have to when our country is just folds in on itself.

[ninja9578]

Now we all know a strike against Iran is inevitable, it's just a matter of when? Iran is at the top of the (U.S. "Bad Countries" List). So? The US is on almost everyone's "bad country" list. I've seen polls from foreign nations, bush is almost invariably the #2 worst terrorist, behind osoma bin laden and in front of kim jong il, it doesn't make an attack inevitable bush is both stupid and crazy, but he's not suicidal.

[Moonbeam]

Something that is scary about China is how they seem to think and act as if they are in a cold war with us right now, but we don't seem to realize it. Our economies are interlocked, each depending on the other. I don't know if that is good or bad as far as aggression is concerned. Lol @ the thought of our fat and lazy population acting as a militia, but I would hope they would rally if there were an actual invasion. I doubt a war between our countries would be fought like that except as clean-up. China has like 10^6 or whatever excess young men that they probably consider completely expendable.

[Alric]

Neither the US or China could ever invade each other. China has way to many people. You really don't want to get into a war where they send 2 or 3 million troops at you. The US is just to big. At best you can invade a few states but your not going to get that far. Which is another thing, each state has their own government as well. Even though we are relying heavily on the federal government at the moment, many of the states could still run alone. So its almost like invading 50 countries.

[dragonoverlord]

I definitely don't think we need to nuke Iran, but we might end up having to invade them. Then what? Is China going to invade us? Hell no. We have enough nukes to blow up the entire world dozens of times over, and we have an armed citizenry. That means our country is one big military. The issue is more complicated then if they get in you're way you nuke them. Like someone else said the USA's economy and Chinas economy are intertwined. I read somwhere in the next couple decades china will surpass canada as your biggest trading partner. You could seriously cripple the chinese economy by causing such instability in Iran, which would all most certainly not be good for the world economy especially your countries econommy since you are heavily indebted to china and you both thrive off trade with eachother. Apparently you guys are borrwing lots of money from china to finance the iraq war, i dont think china will borrow you the money to invade one of their largest trading partners.

[dragonoverlord]

Well, no shit, the US isn't going to invade Iran. They're already fighting two fronts and their economy won't be able to handle another blow. They'll deal with the problem in more discreet ways, most likely. Cue conspiracy: Divide and conquer. They'll split the population and spark a civil war. They did it with the Black Panthers. They did it with the Sunnis and Shiate in Iraq. And they could do it again. If you can't deal with the problem from without, deal with in from within. Either that, or they'll use one of the older divisions and get a few Middle Eastern countries to do it. I agree, i dont see how the USA could invade Iran a country the size of alaska without re instating the draft and suffering serious blows to the economy ontop of the that it is unlikely they would get support from Britain, who have began pulling back soldiers from Iraq. It looks like if they do invade which is unlikely they will be going solo but who knows poland may throw in a couple hundred soldiers.

[Universal Mind]

Relying on effectively an untrained militia? Whilst numbers might be impressive, in reality, it'll mean shit. A professional soldier is far superior in terms of ability (even the common grunts), so that 'militia' comment doesn't really hold. It does hold. Of course a trained military is much more skillful than citizens with guns. I am saying we have a nation of citizens with guns IN ADDITION to the best military in the world IN ADDITION to the ability to blow up the world dozens of times over. China will never invade us. The issue is more complicated then if they get in you're way you nuke them. Like someone else said the USA's economy and Chinas economy are intertwined. I read somwhere in the next couple decades china will surpass canada as your biggest trading partner. You could seriously cripple the chinese economy by causing such instability in Iran, which would all most certainly not be good for the world economy especially your countries econommy since you are heavily indebted to china and you both thrive off trade with eachother. Apparently you guys are borrwing lots of money from china to finance the iraq war, i dont think china will borrow you the money to invade one of their largest trading partners. China knows that if they invaded us they would not have a country any more. It is never going to happen. And the fact that we have borrowed money from China to fight in Iraq does not mean we wouldn't have been able to do it without them.

[bluefinger]

It does hold. Of course a trained military is much more skillful than citizens with guns. I am saying we have a nation of citizens with guns IN ADDITION to the best military in the world IN ADDITION to the ability to blow up the world dozens of times over. China will never invade us. That is still quite the optimistic view on the whole thing. Your best military in the world claim may be so, BUT, a mass of armed citizens is no match for a potential large Chinese Army. China does also have plenty of aircraft, armour, etc, which would lay waste to any militia. Therefore, a militia, at best, would only manage to create small pockets of resistance in the face of a Chinese invasion. I wouldn't make the claim that such a militia would be effective... I have much more confidence in the US army in it's ability to defend the country, since they have the equipment and coordination for effective defensive manoeuvres and counter-offensive. A militia is nothing in comparison to the army.

[Universal Mind]

That is still quite the optimistic view on the whole thing. Your best military in the world claim may be so, BUT, a mass of armed citizens is no match for a potential large Chinese Army. China does also have plenty of aircraft, armour, etc, which would lay waste to any militia. Therefore, a militia, at best, would only manage to create small pockets of resistance in the face of a Chinese invasion. I wouldn't make the claim that such a militia would be effective... I have much more confidence in the US army in it's ability to defend the country, since they have the equipment and coordination for effective defensive manoeuvres and counter-offensive. A militia is nothing in comparison to the army. The armed citizenry would make a very good addition. When the Chinese military tries to go into houses, they get shot. They would have a whole lot of extra bullets coming at them every time they go into populated areas. It would add a whole new dimension to the situation. 200 and whatever million people with guns would not be a cake walk for any military, especially when they are preoccupied with fighting the U.S. military and all of our allies. I don't think the U.S. citizenry would be able to come close to defeating the Chinese military by themselves, but they would add a great deal more trouble to the Chinese military's efforts against our military and allies. More than 200 million pissed off people with guns would be a an enormous problem for any military, and I am only talking about a bonus.

[Alric]

Besides by the time China invades all the militia memebers in the US will be in jail for terrorism. Militia's are practically illegal in this country.

[Universal Mind]

Besides by the time China invades all the militia memebers in the US will be in jail for terrorism. Militia's are practically illegal in this country. Militias are legal under the right to assemble in the Bill of Rights. They are also mentioned in the Second Amendment as a justification. Also, nobody would go to jail for shooting at Chinese soldiers if they came here and tried to take over. I am not talking about organized militias any way. I am talking about me, you, and every other citizen who knows how to shoot a gun getting guns from under our beds, from friends, or from gun stores and going out and shooting every Chinese soldier we see. It would make the insurgency in Iraq look like a few angry three year olds.

[Alric]

Unfortunately, whats legal under the bill of rights, isn't always the same as whats legal. Our government violates peoples rights all the time. I know your talking about just people in general. The reason I bring up the organized people, is because they normally have bigger guns, some of which may actually help a lot if fighting an army. Except they get arrested all the time, and they get their guns stolen by the government.

[dragonoverlord]

China knows that if they invaded us they would not have a country any more. It is never going to happen. And the fact that we have borrowed money from China to fight in Iraq does not mean we wouldn't have been able to do it without them. Im not suggesting China would try to invade you, actually thats the last thing i think china would do. Im not sure what china would if the USA nuked or bombed Iran,Its hard to guess but i don't think the USA will bomb or invade iran in the first place because a chinese military base inside its territory would be a deterent enough for america plus the fact that economically/financially america needs China. HOw much money do you guys own china again? 9 trillion dollars?

[Universal Mind]

Im not suggesting China would try to invade you, actually thats the last thing i think china would do. Im not sure what china would if the USA nuked or bombed Iran,Its hard to guess but i don't think the USA will bomb or invade iran in the first place because a chinese military base inside its territory would be a deterent enough for america plus the fact that economically/financially america needs China. HOw much money do you guys own china again? 9 trillion dollars? If we invade Iran, it will most likely not happen in the way we invaded Iraq. It would probably involve a bombing of key military and other government sites. We would definitely bomb a nuke facility if they ever get one going. If we have to move in and take over, I'm sure we will tell China ahead of time and leave their base alone if they ever have a base there. Our debt to China is about 300 billion dollars. 9 trillion is our overall national debt.

[R.D.735]

China is not the only part of the picture, of course. Virtually every industrialized nation would be affected negatively by the economic fallout. Trade sanctions would be the most likely, and, I'd imagine, most effective, retaliation. Japan could be an even more worrisome economic adversary than China, though, since Japan holds ~$800 billion in US debt. So far, however, only the immediate consequences of an attack have been considered. I can only imagine how catastrophic the US response to sanctions would be to the US,

[bluefinger]

The armed citizenry would make a very good addition. When the Chinese military tries to go into houses, they get shot. They would have a whole lot of extra bullets coming at them every time they go into populated areas. It would add a whole new dimension to the situation. 200 and whatever million people with guns would not be a cake walk for any military, especially when they are preoccupied with fighting the U.S. military and all of our allies. I don't think the U.S. citizenry would be able to come close to defeating the Chinese military by themselves, but they would add a great deal more trouble to the Chinese military's efforts against our military and allies. More than 200 million pissed off people with guns would be a an enormous problem for any military, and I am only talking about a bonus. That is still the optimistic claim. You'd have to assume whole families are willing to risk their lives in order to shoot some Chinese soldiers. At most, it'll be people evacuating to safer areas, using the weapons they have as a means of defense, as opposed to acting as a resistance force. The percentage that would stick around to shoot would only be a small part of that 200 million, which is why I said that at best, they would only create small pockets of resistance. The US military would be able to stop such a theoretical invasion, and be able to do so without resorting to nukes. However, do not underestimate the Chinese forces, because they are still formidable, in any case. That is all. Damn... now I feel like playing a strategy game... where's my pc and games when I need them!

[Universal Mind]

That is still the optimistic claim. You'd have to assume whole families are willing to risk their lives in order to shoot some Chinese soldiers. At most, it'll be people evacuating to safer areas, using the weapons they have as a means of defense, as opposed to acting as a resistance force. The percentage that would stick around to shoot would only be a small part of that 200 million, which is why I said that at best, they would only create small pockets of resistance. The US military would be able to stop such a theoretical invasion, and be able to do so without resorting to nukes. However, do not underestimate the Chinese forces, because they are still formidable, in any case. That is all. We have 300 million people living in the country. I said 200 and whatever million just to take into account that some people would not fight. An invasion would have most of the country fighting, I am pretty sure. That is how Americans think. A lot of people would retreat and have weapons as a means of defense, but they would shoot as soon as they saw the Chinese soldiers, which probably would happen on their way to whatever places they think are retreats. But more importantly, our military would drive the Chinese out in a hurry. The point is that China knows better than to invade us.