Thread: Modern civilisation will be destroyed in a matter of years

If it is inevitable, then the main goal should be to lessen the amount of damage done, increase survival awareness for most citizens for living in a world without oil and the benefits it provides, and to prolong the inevitable as long as possible.

Other suggestions?

Originally Posted by Xei

Modern civilisation will be destroyed in a matter of years

Industrial civilization would be more specific.

Any civilization that remains dependent on finite resources will eventually die out entirely or adapt to new sources of sustenance.

If billions die, there may still remain a billion or so left to carry on industrial civilization for another few hundred or thousand years until a real change is made. One can never really know until it happens. Will billions in fact die within a few years? Maybe. Or maybe people will start growing food out of their own back yards for a change. What a concept. I, however, live in the city, and will resort to moving far away and living off the land once the opportunity presents itself. The city would be the last place anyone would want to stay after a real collapse.

If it is inevitable, then the main goal should be to lessen the amount of damage done, increase survival awareness for most citizens for living in a world without oil and the benefits it provides, and to prolong the inevitable as long as possible.

How?

If billions die, there may still remain a billion or so left to carry on industrial civilization for another few hundred or thousand years until a real change is made. One can never really know until it happens. Will billions in fact die within a few years? Maybe. Or maybe people will start growing food out of their own back yards for a change. What a concept. I, however, live in the city, and will resort to moving far away and living off the land once the opportunity presents itself. The city would be the last place anyone would want to stay after a real collapse.

There are of course huge problems here, though. There isn't enough land. Most people who live in the city simply wouldn't be able to cope. There would be huge problems due to theft. There aren't enough houses. There would still be the problem of warfare.

Originally Posted by Xei

How?

Instead of teaching kids to hide under their desks in case of an atomic explosion (who the hell came up with THAT logic?), we should focus on teaching the next generation and/or as many as we can in our current one to survive independently of all these technologies. That or at least wean them off of these technologies.

1. We've got a few years. 2. There's no way with respects to the financial situation that any government will endorse educating people how to live after civilisation is ruined. 3. That does nothing for 'lessening or delaying' the damage.

If technologically advanced civilization is going to be destroyed, where else would be put our money and resources during our final hours?

Defense spending? Bwhahaha!

Let's put into numerical figures your definition of "matter of years". Ball park guesstimate.

As far as I know, the best method of estimating peak oil was developed by Dr. M. King Hubbert and it focused on the efficiency rate of oil production. He put peak oil at about 2001.

Now, not based on peak oil, but based on the current economic trend as it correlates to the trend of the first great depression, the author of a website I read daily puts the likelyhood of a "trough war" (war that starts at the very bottom of the current crisis) at somewhere between april and june of 2012.

You can take a look yourself here.

That all depends on how exact the pattern follows, although its plotted out pretty spot on up until this point.

Outside of that, my personal guess based on about 6 months (or a little more) of pretty intensive research into economic trends and peak production would put my best guess within the next 5 years or not at all, but I'm no expert.

The ways that I am preparing? Study of wilderness survival skills, study of building techniques such as cob, designing simple machinery that I know I could build with minimal tools and preparation. The key to survival in this type of worst case scenario is developing a strong community that is capable of living independently, far away from developed society (and also outside of jetstreams that could carry nuclear/biological/chemical fallout).

Originally Posted by Xei

There are of course huge problems here, though. There isn't enough land. Most people who live in the city simply wouldn't be able to cope. There would be huge problems due to theft. There aren't enough houses. There would still be the problem of warfare.

Well, yea... Is there a misunderstanding somewhere, or were you just agreeing with me?

There is a lot of oil still out there. Havn't you heard all the people saying we should drill for more oil and make more oil refineries? Its because there are a lot of oil out there that we havn't even started to get.

Then once you get past the cheap oil, there is even more oil that is more difficult to get, that no one even wants to touch because its not yet profitable.

Originally Posted by Daniel Danciu

Instead of teaching kids to hide under their desks in case of an atomic explosion (who the hell came up with THAT logic?)...

Sorry for off topic, but how is this "THAT logic"? Should they stand on the yard and embrace the mushroom? I don't understand what's wrong with the basic "duck and cover". No it doesn't make you invulnerable, so what. There is no black and white here. You can be half alive, half dead, burned, full of shrapnel... If you aren't going to give up and kill yourself then do as much as you can to survive. Which includes duck and cover and of course a bunch of other things.
Sorry, just wanted to clarify.

Did everyone forget the giant sun up their, and the potential to actually make solar technology up to snuff..

Or many other yet imagined alternate fuel sources, I don't foresee the collapse of anything if we get our asses off this crack. I mean oil.

I don't buy the running out of oil soon, yes in the next XX something years, but if we keep heading in the right direction towards alternates..

Bonsay, Duck and cover was used during the Cold war... If a nuclear bomb went off close enough to need to jump under a desk you were already dead.

This prediction ignores the present reality that economic decline has put industry in 'park,' hollowing out oil demand. There's also a good chance scarcity of resources will put a damper on birthrate. I agree we're probably in the beginning, not the middle or end, of a serious collapse of oil economies and the accompanying social order, but that doesn't have to mean we're headed Beyond Thunderdome. Here's a guy who had an interesting insider/outsider perspective on the collapse of the USSR, on what fails and what keeps working in a social collapse: Social Collapse Best Practices.

Worst-case scenarios underestimate the human ability for spontaneous adaptation--not through planning and policy, but opportunism and invention. Some of our worst practices in the developed world are already making a slow turn, from oil-intensive to human-intensive farming, for instance, including reclaiming urban spaces; while it's not widespread enough to meet all needs, it's already supplementing our food supply and knowledgeable people are in place to scale it. Likewise on energy and transportation, people are acting at the grassroots to ruggedize population centers with localized generation, waste-oil biodiesel, bicycle co-ops and even third-hand computer shops. Population centers very likely will be THE place to be should things fall apart, because of the concentration of minds and existing networks outside and beneath official infrastructure, not least of all ghetto black markets. The internet and other communication networks are also becoming decentralized enough that they would probably survive well into any collapse, allowing low-tech solutions to proliferate as they are needed.

Our biggest weakness is reliance on a complex, top-down energy system. Solar and wind decentralize it somewhat, but existing technologies rely on a sophisticated manufacturing base that will be hard to completely localize. In my part of the world coal reserves will hold out for some time, but I'd feel better if there were other relatively simple, local alternatives.

Originally Posted by DeathCell

Bonsay, Duck and cover was used during the Cold war... If a nuclear bomb went off close enough to need to jump under a desk you were already dead.

I know it was, I've seen it before. And again, it's still not a bad idea. I'm not sure why you think you die instantly if the bomb falls. Do you know the limit? Where is it too far/ too close to be if a nuclear bomb goes off? For example, I've read and heard enough about what it was like in Japan when the bombs fell and I'm sure many would disagree with you. As I said shrapnel, blindness, burns... I know the bombs today are way stronger, but even though, there are still areas in the radius that would cause equal amounts of damage. What's with this black-white approach, as close as it is to the ultimate device-o-death it's still survivable. And you're a step closer to survival if you don't get fatally wounded.

Ducking and covering will not stop the nuclear fallout... If your that close to the explosion you will die instantly, if you are far enough way to not be impacted by the explosion but close enough for fallout... Hiding under a desk isn't going to help much..

It's not like a normal explosion, you are screwed.

I don't want to repeat myself but... nuke =/= instant death (obviously). Fallout depends on a number of factors and if they are favourable you might evade and survive. When I said duck and cover was a good idea I didn't mean you should stay that way for a day or two, but only as long as necessary. I don't know what I said that such idiocity is brought up.
If you are close enough to be vapourized - fine you're dead
If you are close enough to be affected by other stuff like the the shock wave, heat in whatever radius, then you might have a chance if you don't make yourself an easy target.

The way I understand your logic is that there is an imaginary circle around the "area". The people inside are dead, the ones outside are alive. I'll say it again. This isn't a precise alien cleaning device. But do as you wish. If there's an explosion I'll take cover and you can just stand there in awe if it suits you. I didn't know this was such a big deal. Blown way out of proportion

Originally Posted by DeathCell

Did everyone forget the giant sun up their, and the potential to actually make solar technology up to snuff..

Or many other yet imagined alternate fuel sources, I don't foresee the collapse of anything if we get our asses off this crack. I mean oil.

I don't buy the running out of oil soon, yes in the next XX something years, but if we keep heading in the right direction towards alternates..

Bonsay, Duck and cover was used during the Cold war... If a nuclear bomb went off close enough to need to jump under a desk you were already dead.

The issue isn't that these technologies aren't possible, its that we didn't start researching them in time. Although the photoelectric effect was discovered around the beginning of the 20th century, research into solar power only really became mainstream in the 70's. Right now, Even though the technology is there, there simply isn't enough time to set up the level of infrastructure needed to run the world on solar, especially since the world leaders are dragging their feet, hoping to get as much time out of the oil infrastructure as possible.

Other energy sources are about the same. We have the technology to run the world on nuclear energy, or geothermal energy, its just that in order to get it up and running before the total collapse of oil would require that every country make it their top priority now, and that isn't happening.

Sorry, all I can think of is Frontlines: Fuel of War
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZrBuDjPncQ

(the dates might be off though )

Every time I think of peak oil I think of the book On The Beach.

And please don't jump all over me for saying this, but the crisis presented by peak oil is the paradigm shift I believe will be responsible for unalterably changing the world leading up to and following 2012. Whether or not it will be on any specific day is debatable but it my mind it's nearly impossible. But this the most looming shift that I can foresee in the years to come. There are others, but this--in my mind--represents the most far-reaching change.


Also as a sidenote, has anyone ever considered that the infrastructure required to translate the nation from oil to...whatever alternative fuel-source they choose (in my mind a mix of all those available would be wisest)...could it be that it's already being set up? I mean, think about it; yes the government/oil companies want to sap every bit of profit/influence they can from oil before it becomes obsolete. Wouldn't it also make sense then, that they would do so while simultaneously be setting up for a similar monopoly of influence concerning any other source that may become the fuel of the future?

Companies and bureaucracy is corrupt and slow-moving, yes. But not dumb. They're not dragging their feet because they think it will last forever, they're dragging their feet because to do so yields them profit and influence. Knowing this profit/influence will inevitably run out with one source, wouldn't it make good sense that they'd be preparing to be the first ones to jump on a new fuel-source once oil has come and gone? They can put all their money into preparation now, and when the time comes they can be the first to say, "Hey! You've trusted us for years for your oil needs, why not continue your loyalty to us by switching to ___ power from us also?". Then they end up looking like the hero, after being the ones to sap oil from the Earth in the first place.

Besides, if they do it this way, they can get away with charging ridiculous prices for whatever new source they choose to use. If everyone's in a panic about how they'll get to work, or run their companies, or what-have-you, it will be a much easier choice to pay outrageous prices to whoever's offering you a solution.

It's not a very pretty prospect, but I think it's a realistic one.

Of course, this is just an idea of what could happen. I don't claim to know what will happen. But I do know that it's wise to get off the grid as soon as possible, and learn to live independent of oil and other corporate energy sources.

It's already being done successfully, by people who made it a priority years ago. Not only is it cheaper, but it will make any sudden nation-wide shift much easier to handle when the time comes.

Its possible to survive a nuclear blast. Of course if the bomb lands right on top of you, you are dead. But flying glass, bricks and stuff will kill you. Ducking down greatly reduces your chances of being killed by flying objects. Its possible to survive only a few miles away.

If you think the fight over oil will be bad, just wait until people start fighting over water.

That video fits a lot to this thread Pojmaster

I think there IS reason to concern, it is impossible not to see it, unless you are "blind".

Survival skill is important, and how you survive in nature. Everything you need is out there, you just need to know how.

Even though, we know that those few individuals that have this skill, might survive, the majority won't.

But wait, IF modern civilization would crumple to ruins, would it be that bad? Think of that for a moment.

In the long perspective, we HAVE to get better, we need to be resposible. If any civilazation fall, it would be there own fault, they can only blame themself.

The good thing about humanity is, when we are asked: "Get better, or die" we chose "Get better" and up to now it has worked, may it work again

Aww shit.

Why am I not overly bothered.

I suppose the reality of it all hasn't hit me yet.

Someday!

The only problem I see with oil production going down the tube is the fact that all the plastics will be gone. We can find other means of transportation, but finding other means of creating beverage containers, bags, computer casings, keyboards, mouses, picture frames....looking around my room, half the stuff in it is made at least partially of plastic. Even a lot of my clothes. We'd have to resort to using the materials they used in the old days.