Thread: The next 30 years..........

"Nothing lasts forever, but the certainty of change."

What technological advancements do you think will come in the next thirty years?

With the exponential nature of human knowledge and capacity to create, and in turn technology, I have no doubt that within the next 30 years things will get nuts techology wise... a new industrial revolution... a renaissance.

What will music be like? Will there be another revolution of good rock, or will hip pop stay on top?

It'll be waaaay different IMO. Things will change drastically. Will hip hop stay? Probably... they said disco and funk died... but no music dies... there's always fans.

Will we have virtual reality?

Do some research and you'll find we're already there. The computing power is there, and the technology, though young, is here. It's just not yet at the point where it's 'practical' yet. Look at computers when they started... and look now... hasn't been too long. Comparitively Virtual reality will become more accesible in the next 5 years IMO.

What political and worldly issues will come about?

With massive breakthroughs almost daily in the fields of biology, neurotechnology, and more importantly genes, I believe many political issues... more moral if anything... will come about regarding gene manipulation.

In my opinion technology will surely advance more in the next 30 years than it has in all of past human existance. The big thing, for me at least, is going to be issues surrounding our advancements in biology and DNA... and our abilities to manipulate genes.

We'll have aircraft that can't be seen by the naked eye, and will likely be invisible to all other forms of electromagnetic radiation.

Meta-materials will offer that and much more. The stealth thing, at least, is a sure thing to happen within 30 years.

I voted No. It's pretty vague and relative what constitutes "much change," but IMHO not much has changed since 1980 other than a handful of increasingly important technologies. We live in basically the same sociopolitical world, with the same sorts of people engaged in the same conflicts and pursuing the same goals, except now we have widespread internet access, cell phones, etc. To me, that's not very different.

Looking to the future, certainly things will be a bit different in 30 years, but I don't know of any special reasons to think that there's going to be fundamental societal changes. We will of course increasingly have to wean ourselves off of oil and/or become efficiency-conscious, but this is going to be a far less impactful change than some people have supposed. Contrary to popular belief, there is already an abundance of alternative technologies which either use existing energy sources extremely efficiently or rely on unconventional and more sustainable forms of energy. Most people simply don't hear about these innovations because there's not a strong societal incentive to adopt these technologies (yet). These technologies are out there in the research community literally just waiting to be adopted for corporate use. I personally only know about them because a friend of mine is an engineering grad student specializing in something like alternative energy technology. You should hear the things he tells me about. But anyway, no, I don't think there will be "much change" (whatever that entails) in the next 30 years. Just the same old people in the same old sociopolitical systems using technology that happens to be a little better. Yawn.

I don't know how you can say that there hasn't been much change since 1980.
But I guess that it depends on how you define change. I believe there will be
more unforeseeable things to happen in the next 10 years than there has been
in the past 30. Things move increasingly quickly, not only technology, but also
information.

Oil production will definitely have peaked by such a time, and China and India will be using up a large amount of it. We could have to adjust to less than half or maybe even a third of current consumption; pretty frightening when you consider what a 5% decrease in production did in the 70s.

Oil will therefore be extremely expensive. If the political apathy continues as it has been, this will mean a large amount of social upheaval in advanced countries, but it's hard to know how much. There could be mass food shortages, even potential famines. There could be no constant energy provision. There could be an end to consumerism and cheap goods. There would be no more long commutes without essential purpose, so communities would become localised. The resulting social unrest could destabilise governments, and there could be constant warfare for dwindling resources. All this would last at least as long as it takes for countries to sort themselves out. The worst problem with most governments is that the only impetus for change is current events. In Britain we are terrible for this so we could have a pretty dark few years looming on the horizon. In other places like Switzerland they have much better governing systems and as a result they have much better infrastructures in place to deal with this.

Contrary to popular belief, there is already an abundance of alternative technologies which either use existing energy sources extremely efficiently or rely on unconventional and more sustainable forms of energy. Most people simply don't hear about these innovations because there's not a strong societal incentive to adopt these technologies (yet).

I'm glad to hear that, although I'm hoping you could name a few. The problem isn't just energy of course, it's also materials. What do you think will provide a substitute for plastics, or farming chemicals?

I've always thought renewable power provision was simply an issue of political will rather than a fundamental problem. If you want more energy, all you have to do is build more renewable energy sources. Fusion power is also looking hopeful.

Not so sure about transport though. What are your views on that?

Although I'm sure massive leaps in military technology will happen, how war is fought won't change enough to affect most of our day to day lives. And as far as genetics and eugenics go, I bet we will learn alot but until a generation that is 'born into' the possibility of gene manipulation arrises and takes control I highly doubt society will be anything but wary and skeptical of putting it to massive use.

Games will get better. Virtual reality? Very likely. Which will be fun. And good for learning things like training in driving or tank operation or whatever in a controlled environment. Heck, we may even have significantly moved away from fossil fuels. But people have been saying 'In twenty years, we will be dependent on x' for awhile. So I'm not sure.

At any rate, I said no mainly because I can't envision a technology arising in the next thirty years that completely overhauls how western society approaches everything more than the internet has done. That was the biggest leap we will see for a long time, I would predict.

I agree with Xei. The american way of life is dependent on oil, not just the cars and gas guzzlers we drive, but it's also a part of our agriculture - our food, and modern advances into medicine.

Oil has a deadline. If we are still an oil based industry in 2050 the US economy will crumble. It will be the greatest depression the US will ever see. This expected great depression in 2050 will destroy the US. Futurists do not expect that the american government will recover. Why? Because if we continue on this path, if the status quo continues, the US government will be bankrupt. And it will literally lack the money and real physical resources to bring order to the chaos.

Even if the government does try to provide food for the starving, it will lack the food to supply, and the energy needed to distribute the food. While this expected great depression will happen around 2050, we will be feeling its squeeze as early as 2020, when gas prices are expected to sky rocket.

Things are going to change. Either WE CHANGE IT by choosing to live alternate lifestyles. Like learning permaculture. Or reality forces us to change when this oil industry bubble boils over. Either way the change into a non oil industry is going to happen. The question is, will be painful or sweet?

Not to mention futurists also expect that climate changes and over usage of one of americas greatest rivers, will make the river dry up. Making the future of the entire southwest of america dismal. Cities die without water. We are expecting a mass human migration to the northeast. You may think its insane to think that one of our great rivers can dry up. It's not. It's already happened in the middle east. And it's already happening right now to our great rivers. Every year, there is less and less and less river.

Originally Posted by DuB

I voted No. It's pretty vague and relative what constitutes "much change," but IMHO not much has changed since 1980 other than a handful of increasingly important technologies. We live in basically the same sociopolitical world, with the same sorts of people engaged in the same conflicts and pursuing the same goals, except now we have widespread internet access, cell phones, etc. To me, that's not very different.

Wait...what?

Cell phones and the internet have radically changed the way we socialize, work, make purchases, and entertain ourselves. They're not the changes sci-fi writers expected to see, and they don't have the cosmetic impact of new transportation networks or robot servants, but in terms of how we live, yes, a lot has changed since 1980. Maybe it's not as evident in urban areas, but for formerly isolated communities like the small town where I grew up, the change is profound.

Add the cumulative impact of incremental changes in other areas, particularly raw computing power and data storage, and many people are now living lives that would not have been possible in the '80s.

Sociopolitically, *cough*CHINA*cough* The exchange of money, goods, and warm bodies between China and the USA in the past 20-25 years has been substantial. Russia's occasional posturing aside, the threat of war between major powers (potentially sterilizing the biosphere), still imminent in 1980, is now distant. The first stage of Europe's long-anticipated peaceful consolidation is accomplished. Anyone with a reality-based worldview should feel considerably more secure on 2010 earth than 1980 earth (unless they live in Africa, or under an Islamic gov't >__>).

...

As for the future, I expect more decentralization in the form of better batteries, better solar both for mobile devices (including vehicles) and home energy production, and devices with more flexible means of accessing and/or creating networks, including direct device-to-device communication and satellite. I don't expect much action in space--no moon bases, orbital power stations, or orbital production facilities, but more private enterprise in terms of moving payloads, operating satellites, and small-scale space tourism. Transportation, likewise, is unlikely to advance much except for tighter traffic management, more automation, and the increasing inclusion of home/business amenities in both public and private vehicles. I would not be surprised to see future GPS doing the driving in communication with smart-highways while the human operator web-browses, has a meeting via telepresence, or catches up on a serial drama. We'll likely see a lot more interfaces based on voice, gesture, motion detection including eye movements, and possibly direct pick-up of electrical signals in the brain.

Originally Posted by Xei

I'm glad to hear that, although I'm hoping you could name a few. The problem isn't just energy of course, it's also materials. What do you think will provide a substitute for plastics, or farming chemicals?

Unfortunately I can't. I typically listen with at best moderate interest, never follow these things up, and the stuff is testing the scope of my technical knowledge to start with.

Originally Posted by Taosaur

Wait...what?

Cell phones and the internet have radically changed the way we socialize, work, make purchases, and entertain ourselves.

Okay, define "radically." Maybe my standards for change are too high, but I don't think that it's radical at all. We were social creatures in 1980 and we're social creatures now. The inability to send mass text messages 30 years ago was not hindering our ability to socialize with others. We watch way too much TV now just as we did then, but now we have more channels. We can buy things online now, but the vast majority of our purchases are still face to face. Mass media is just as mass, corporations just as overwhelming. Perhaps most importantly, social norms have changed very little in 30 years. We've made depressingly little progress in eliminating minority disparities, and all manner of prejudice and discrimination are still with us, with every indication that they're here to stay. Someone from 1980 who jumped forward into our time would fit in without any problem; we're playing the same game by the same basic rules. Now, someone from 100 years ago, they would have a much harder time.

IMO, "much change" socially would be something like the majority of us living in collectivist communes. Chatting with one's friends and family over IM rather than a telephone is not a major change as I see it. These are pockets of salient change contrasted against a largely unchanged social background.

The point about lessened chance of war between major powers is a good one, though. I agree that, on average, today's world is a much safer place than the world of 1980. Certainly that's worth a lot.

Originally Posted by juroara

I agree with Xei. The american way of life is dependent on oil, not just the cars and gas guzzlers we drive, but it's also a part of our agriculture - our food, and modern advances into medicine.

Oil has a deadline. If we are still an oil based industry in 2050 the US economy will crumble. It will be the greatest depression the US will ever see. This expected great depression in 2050 will destroy the US. Futurists do not expect that the american government will recover. Why? Because if we continue on this path, if the status quo continues, the US government will be bankrupt. And it will literally lack the money and real physical resources to bring order to the chaos.

Even if the government does try to provide food for the starving, it will lack the food to supply, and the energy needed to distribute the food. While this expected great depression will happen around 2050, we will be feeling its squeeze as early as 2020, when gas prices are expected to sky rocket.

Things are going to change. Either WE CHANGE IT by choosing to live alternate lifestyles. Like learning permaculture. Or reality forces us to change when this oil industry bubble boils over. Either way the change into a non oil industry is going to happen. The question is, will be painful or sweet?

I believe you are being extremely over dramatic. Do you think the big wigs of our government and oil companies are just going to let the cash cow that is america die? No, they will take hold of the alternative energy sources and transfer us in to it. Same as oil and continue to profit from it. What good would it do them to let it all crumble and go to waste?

Originally Posted by tkdyo

I believe you are being extremely over dramatic. Do you think the big wigs of our government and oil companies are just going to let the cash cow that is america die? No, they will take hold of the alternative energy sources and transfer us in to it. Same as oil and continue to profit from it. What good would it do them to let it all crumble and go to waste?

I agree with you that America won't just shrivel up and die.

But we will almost certainly start to lose our hegemony, and other countries will fill in the power gap for a multitude of reasons other than oil. I predict in 30 years, if America is still the largest producer/consumer, it will have lost major influence in other areas. The US is just no longer sustainable at status qoute.

If that happens, that would be a fairly significant change over thirty years.
I'm considering changing my vote because of that...

Originally Posted by spockman

I agree with you that America won't just shrivel up and die.

But we will almost certainly start to lose our hegemony, and other countries will fill in the power gap for a multitude of reasons other than oil. I predict in 30 years, if America is still the largest producer/consumer, it will have lost major influence in other areas. The US is just no longer sustainable at status qoute.

If that happens, that would be a fairly significant change over thirty years.
I'm considering changing my vote because of that...

yes, this I agree with. We cannot continue to be the worlds only superpower, we are spreading ourselves too thin and not making smart economic choices. I assume china and india will take more of the influence we have and continue to use us for selling goods. This is part of the reason why I am getting a minor in chinese

I believe you are being extremely over dramatic. Do you think the big wigs of our government and oil companies are just going to let the cash cow that is america die? No, they will take hold of the alternative energy sources and transfer us in to it. Same as oil and continue to profit from it. What good would it do them to let it all crumble and go to waste?

This assumes that there are viable alternatives.

The thing is, oil represents at least three different things: an energy source, an energy store, and a material.

Why should the oil companies be the ones who control the future energy technologies? Why not the existing energy companies?

Originally Posted by Xei

This assumes that there are viable alternatives.

The thing is, oil represents at least three different things: an energy source, an energy store, and a material.

Why should the oil companies be the ones who control the future energy technologies? Why not the existing energy companies?

I dont think they should. I just predict they will because they will have the money to buy out the energy companies ahead of time. Of course, I would be plenty happy if they didnt. The oil company ceos are among the worst gougers there are.

Though, yes, I assume there will be viable alternatives, but I think it will be a combination of different alternatives based on the area.

Also, while current oil forecasts give our globe maybe 50 years of oil left, these forecasts are very unreliable. In the 60s people thought oil would be gone by the 90s. In the 80s, alot of folks were saying that oil would be gone by- well- today.

But countries are A. Still stockpiling crude and B. Always researching ways to use previously unusable oil.

We may have to start using more expensive extraction techniques, use sub-standard oil, go to swamps and such, etc. But we won't run out for a loooong time, even if it becomes more expensive to produce and purchase. If anything, I would suppose oil efficiency and vehicle gas mileage would grow at a similar rate to prices inflating.

Also, while current oil forecasts give our globe maybe 50 years of oil left, these forecasts are very unreliable. In the 60s people thought oil would be gone by the 90s. In the 80s, alot of folks were saying that oil would be gone by- well- today.

Which people?

The people who were actually qualified saw a peak in production (very different from 'no production') coming at around 2000; the 70s oil shocks ended up pushing that back a bit, but in the last decade almost all geologists have been placing the peak around 2010.

I don't think it was mentioned here but in the next 30 years I know that we will have for the lack of a better word "self driving cars".

Currently, this technology already exists for high way driving;although, it is very expensive. I read on another site that this technology should become commercially viable within 12 years.

Bits and pieces of this technology already exist. Such as cruise control which automatically monitors and adjusts the speed of your car in relation to the car in front of you (maintaining a safe distance between you and the car in front of you)

I voted yes, because...well, everything changes! We might have contact with other lifeforms in thirty years, which seems more likely than...oh, I dunno...food pills!

Originally Posted by tkdyo

I believe you are being extremely over dramatic. Do you think the big wigs of our government and oil companies are just going to let the cash cow that is america die? No, they will take hold of the alternative energy sources and transfer us in to it. Same as oil and continue to profit from it. What good would it do them to let it all crumble and go to waste?

Because there is no energy source that you can control and profit from as much as oil. Take for example solar panels. You only have to buy them and they are are yours. It's one a time purchase.

Lets imagine that technology advances so far that all cars run on the power of the sun. Sure who ever sells the car is profiting! But not the oil industry. Because the sun is free energy that no one can capitalize.

Right now there is no alternative energy that we know of that can offer the oil industry the same profits its enjoying now. Even if it dips its hands into all alternative energy resources, as time passes on their profits will still dramatically drop. Cars running on the FREE energy of the sun is something they should be afraid of. Too late. Car industries are already exploring it.

Disco will make an enormous comeback in the next 30 years. It will be more popular than ever and bigger than rock and roll or rap ever hoped to be. It will be so mainstream that even country music will be a branch of disco. From that point, there will be no return. Disco will be part of the fabric of our lives from then on.

Originally Posted by Universal Mind

Disco will make an enormous comeback in the next 30 years. It will be more popular than ever and bigger than rock and roll or rap ever hoped to be. It will be so mainstream that even country music will be a branch of disco. From that point, there will be no return. Disco will be part of the fabric of our lives from then on.

God help us.

Originally Posted by juroara

Because there is no energy source that you can control and profit from as much as oil. Take for example solar panels. You only have to buy them and they are are yours. It's one a time purchase.

Lets imagine that technology advances so far that all cars run on the power of the sun. Sure who ever sells the car is profiting! But not the oil industry. Because the sun is free energy that no one can capitalize.

Right now there is no alternative energy that we know of that can offer the oil industry the same profits its enjoying now. Even if it dips its hands into all alternative energy resources, as time passes on their profits will still dramatically drop. Cars running on the FREE energy of the sun is something they should be afraid of. Too late. Car industries are already exploring it.

They also cant profit from oil anymore after its all used. SO once again they are faced with how to make their profits another way. Hydrogen is one example of an industry they could take over, or making the plants for geothermal energy and charging for their use. Im sure there are people at those companies who think out of the box even better than me so I think its safe to say, they will invest in alternative fuels that will still deliver profit, even if the profit is not as great. In the end, all Im trying to say is that we wont crumble from losing oil, because where there is profit to be made, you can bet they will capitalize.

Originally Posted by DuB

I voted No. It's pretty vague and relative what constitutes "much change," but IMHO not much has changed since 1980 other than a handful of increasingly important technologies. We live in basically the same sociopolitical world, with the same sorts of people engaged in the same conflicts and pursuing the same goals, except now we have widespread internet access, cell phones, etc. To me, that's not very different.

Looking to the future, certainly things will be a bit different in 30 years, but I don't know of any special reasons to think that there's going to be fundamental societal changes. We will of course increasingly have to wean ourselves off of oil and/or become efficiency-conscious, but this is going to be a far less impactful change than some people have supposed. Contrary to popular belief, there is already an abundance of alternative technologies which either use existing energy sources extremely efficiently or rely on unconventional and more sustainable forms of energy. Most people simply don't hear about these innovations because there's not a strong societal incentive to adopt these technologies (yet). These technologies are out there in the research community literally just waiting to be adopted for corporate use. I personally only know about them because a friend of mine is an engineering grad student specializing in something like alternative energy technology. You should hear the things he tells me about. But anyway, no, I don't think there will be "much change" (whatever that entails) in the next 30 years. Just the same old people in the same old sociopolitical systems using technology that happens to be a little better. Yawn.

Things have got to shake up soon, with the way new countries are gaining power.. We are almost guaranteed to see a huge change.. With India, China, etc.. gaining such a foothold in the world.. I can't wait to see revolts in those countries over the terrible working conditions.