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    Thread: Lucid dreaming vs waking life 'intutions' in guessing a 3 digit number

    1. #1
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      Lucid dreaming vs waking life 'intutions' in guessing a 3 digit number

      Me and a friend are doing an experiment. My friend writes down a random 3 digit number, and hides it. I then write down three numbers:
      1. A number I guess while awake
      2. A number I guess while in a hypnagogic state
      3. A number obtained through a lucid dream

      So far here are the results:
      Friend: 572

      1. 672 4 points
      2. 555 2 points
      3. 565 2 points

      As you see, the number I guessed while awake was the most accurate, but the others still produced measurable results.

      I was somewhat doubtful of my lucid dream obtained number, becuase at the end the DC said "Wait that can't be right..." while scratching his head!

      I am attempting the experiment again tonight! The plan is to repeat this 10 times, then swap around.
      Deep in the human unconscious is a pervasive need for a logical universe that makes sense. But the real universe is always one step beyond logic.

    2. #2
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      Sounds good, except I recommend using a clear, pre-defined way of scoring the guesses.

      The most straightforward way, imo, is to either:
      1) Count each digit match as one point, and tally it up for the three digits. (giving a score between 0 and 3)
      2) Tally up the distance between real and guessed for each digit, as a total "deviance" (inaccuracy) score. (between 0 and 27)

      This is helpful because you can then compare your scores each night precisely/robustly, as well as compare it directly with the scores that you'd get from complete randomness.

      For example, if you use scoring-system 1, random chance would give:
      * A 27% chance of getting one or more points/digit-matches, each attempt. (1 - (.9 * .9 * .9) = .271 = 27%)
      * A 0.1% chance of getting 3 points/digit-matches, each attempt. (.1 * .1 * .1 = .001 = 0.1%)

      (I'm not a statistician, so don't know/remember how to calculate the probability of 2 or more point/digit-matches, apart from doing brute calculation of the different combinations of two-digit-matches, which I don't feel like doing.)

      But anyway, if you stick with one of the two criteria above, you can then tally the number of times you get those 1/3 point matches, and plug that tally in each time to a binomial calculator, and calculate the long-term probability that you'd get results that accurate if it were based on nothing but chance. You can find a free online binomial calculator here: Statistics

      (For those interesting in how the binomial calculator works, you can read the tutorial on it here: Binomial Distribution)

      Should be interesting to see either way, but the above-described tracking makes it even better, as we can then see how much better-than-chance your results are, as you perform the experiment. (you'll probably get at least a slightly-better-than-chance running result, since people have a shared inclination toward some digits, such as 7)
      naturespirit likes this.

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