We have lucid dreamers here that have started with little or no recall and slowly worked their way up to both better recall and lucidity. There really is no rule that can determine if you are going to have a lucid dream sooner or later. However, it helps a great deal to be positive about it, review and choose induction techniques and practice them consistently.

Here's more on recall:

Dream recall compendium

Also, this is another thread with quick tips on recall:

My recall is sketchy

Good luck!