Thread: is there a 50/50 chance that this is an illusion or not real?

No. If you try to assign probabilities to things you have no information about at all, you get inconsistent nonsense.

For instance: there is a box with a mystery object inside.

It may be an apple (and nothing else). It may not be. By your reasoning, we must assign a 50% probability to each of these possibilities, because we have absolutely zero information about what the criteria for choosing the object were.

It may also be a pear (and nothing else). And of course, it may not be. By the same reasoning, there is a 50% probability for each possibility.

In other words, there is a 50% probability that it's just an apple, and there's a 50% probability that it's just a pear. So there's a 50% + 50% = 100% probability that there's either just an apple, or just a pear in the box. Thus there is a 0% probability that there is anything else.

This is manifestly nonsense and demonstrates why assigning probabilities to situations with no parameters whatsoever is a meaningless absurdity which contradicts the concept of probability.

Originally Posted by Xei

No. If you try to assign probabilities to things you have no information about at all, you get inconsistent nonsense.

For instance: there is a box with a mystery object inside.

It may be an apple (and nothing else). It may not be. By your reasoning, we must assign a 50% probability to each of these possibilities, because we have absolutely zero information about what the criteria for choosing the object were.

It may also be a pear (and nothing else). And of course, it may not be. By the same reasoning, there is a 50% probability for each possibility.

In other words, there is a 50% probability that it's just an apple, and there's a 50% probability that it's just a pear. So there's a 50% + 50% = 100% probability that there's either just an apple, or just a pear in the box. Thus there is a 0% probability that there is anything else.

This is manifestly nonsense and demonstrates why assigning probabilities to situations with no parameters whatsoever is a meaningless absurdity which contradicts the concept of probability.

what if you had a box with a number that is between 1 and 10. what is the probability it will be 1?

Originally Posted by Xei

No. If you try to assign probabilities to things you have no information about at all, you get inconsistent nonsense.

It's so refreshing coming across people who actually do understand the most basic concepts of probability. Especially after discussing the Monty Hall problem with others who still think it's 50-50 even when the probabilities have been clearly laid out for them.

Or how about "the universe either contains a god or it does not"?

Why do people fail so badly at this?!

Originally Posted by Xei

No. If you try to assign probabilities to things you have no information about at all, you get inconsistent nonsense.

For instance: there is a box with a mystery object inside.

It may be an apple (and nothing else). It may not be. By your reasoning, we must assign a 50% probability to each of these possibilities, because we have absolutely zero information about what the criteria for choosing the object were.

It may also be a pear (and nothing else). And of course, it may not be. By the same reasoning, there is a 50% probability for each possibility.

In other words, there is a 50% probability that it's just an apple, and there's a 50% probability that it's just a pear. So there's a 50% + 50% = 100% probability that there's either just an apple, or just a pear in the box. Thus there is a 0% probability that there is anything else.

This is manifestly nonsense and demonstrates why assigning probabilities to situations with no parameters whatsoever is a meaningless absurdity which contradicts the concept of probability.

Well In this case there are only two choices, because he is asking is it an illusion/not real or is, where as there are not many answers to the question, it is just a yes or no.

If we DO live in a Matrix-like illusion and are brains in vats or something like that, then it's impossible to trust our very perceptions, so there would be no way to ascertain the nature of that reality.

So in a way, statistically, I suppose there are countless billions of possible 'realities' compared to the one reality that we percieve. However, using the only tools available to us - our human perceptions - only the one reality has any evidence to support it and demonstrates a remarkable consistency.

As it's been explained, probability does not come into play when dealing with uncertainty in the real world. Just because you cannot be certain of something doesn't mean its probability is equal to its improbability. In fact when you really study Complexity, most probabilities become hard to ascertain. For instance when rolling a dice we don't know how the imperfections on the table will effect the outcome. But just because we don't know every detail of influence doesn't suddenly turn the probably to a 50% chance that it will land on 6 and a 50% chance it will not.

As far as reality goes, it makes no difference whether or not our brains are in a vat when trying to ascertain whether or not we live in "reality" right now. Technically the world already is a hologram because a very small selection of particles arranged in different ways make up an incredible amount of variation. Reality is not much different from a computer screen where red, green and blue make up every color and image we see.

So again I digress the word reality is stupid, or atleast combining its connotation. Describing this sober state of mind as real implies every other state of mind is fake. Its not fake, it's just more temporary. If everything temporary were fake reality would be just as fake.

Originally Posted by Omnis Dei

Describing this sober state of mind as real implies every other state of mind is fake.

Well not really. Reality INCLUDES states like dream, drunkenness, hypnosis, psychosis, and all the other altered states we know of.

Originally Posted by Darkmatters

Well not really. Reality INCLUDES states like dream, drunkenness, hypnosis, psychosis, and all the other altered states we know of.

But its connotation is contrast dreams, among other things such as abstraction and imagination.