Thread: Derren Brown predicts lottery numbers

Originally Posted by A Roxxor

What is that guy talking about? I didn't see the balls move at all...

It's hard to notice but it is there.

You don't actually see it move. One second they are all sitting flush, the next the first ball is slightly higher than the rest.

hahah this vid explains it really well!

Originally Posted by DreamQueen

I must say he does well not to look at his assistant writing the numbers on the balls. I wouldn't be able to resist looking and laughing if it were me

Told y'all!

Thanks for the vid Eonn

PS i feel sorry for anyone who watched his "Explanation Show" and wasted an hour of their life listening to him lie. Sorry but I just really loathe liars.

Missed the explanation show. How did he say he did it?

Originally Posted by Eonnn

hahah this vid explains it really well!

Here's the question: Is such a thing possible over a live feed?

Originally Posted by A Roxxor

It is more probable for a new sequence to be chosen than one that has already been picked. if he had enough information, he could start ruling out some sequences and try to guess the next one. That's probably not what he did, though.

Not true. It's random, so it's the same chance as it was before that the same sequence is picked.

If you flip a coin a ninety-nine times, and every time it lands on heads, it's not any more likely it's going to be tails for the hundredth flip. It's still a fifty percent chance.

Same in this situation, except with far more options.

Originally Posted by Black_Eagle

Here's the question: Is such a thing possible over a live feed?

I believe so. At least that's what the guys I know are saying! You can actually see the picture freeze when they sync it in. It's even more obvious than the ball moving. It's so completely obvious camera trickery of some sort is occurring at that point.

Originally Posted by A Roxxor

It is more probable for a new sequence to be chosen than one that has already been picked. if he had enough information, he could start ruling out some sequences and try to guess the next one. That's probably not what he did, though.

Originally Posted by Scatterbrain

No, it's not.

Actually, he's technically correct on the first part. It is more probable that any one of millions of combinations will be picked in favour of any specific combination, such as "one that has already been picked." Since there are millions of possible new sequences versus the individual sequence (or small number of sequences) that have been picked before, the probability of it not coming up is near 100%. However it is gambler's fallacy to think that an individual sequence has a different chance of coming up versus any other sequence depending on whether or not it's come before. (Assuming at least that it is truly random.)

Roll a 4, chances of getting a 4 again is 1/6. Chances of getting something other than what we just got: 5/6. However 4 is still as likely as 1, 2, 3, 5 or 6.

DreamQueen, what is the name of the song in the video in your sig?

After watching the events on Friday (youtube ) I'm now pretty(99.9999%) sure he either made a deal with the lottery people, or he cheated. Probably the first. Although I must say I saw the misterious moving ball in the Wednesday video. He's really good, it made people think.

Knowing Derren, he probably moved that ball on purpose.

Originally Posted by Mark75

Actually, he's technically correct on the first part. It is more probable that any one of millions of combinations will be picked in favour of any specific combination, such as "one that has already been picked." Since there are millions of possible new sequences versus the individual sequence (or small number of sequences) that have been picked before, the probability of it not coming up is near 100%. However it is gambler's fallacy to think that an individual sequence has a different chance of coming up versus any other sequence depending on whether or not it's come before. (Assuming at least that it is truly random.)

Roll a 4, chances of getting a 4 again is 1/6. Chances of getting something other than what we just got: 5/6. However 4 is still as likely as 1, 2, 3, 5 or 6.

I'm gonna buy a few dozen lotto tickets this week. I'll let you know if I become a millionaire.

Or perhaps he just did the split screen. Can't make up my mind. My personal theory is more poetic though, one way or another it was just a trick, as he told us himself.

Originally Posted by Oneironaut

And if a projector had projected those numbers onto the balls, it is the most high-tech projector I've ever seen. The way the 'projected' numbers hug the balls, in perfect perspective, while they are being turned around, is just amazing.

I didn't mean to say he used a projector. I'm just saying the only mystery in the trick is how he actually switched the balls at the last minute. There are countless ways to F* with the balls at any point in his trick. Swapping ping pong balls is lame magic 101.

I was just explaining the reason the trick is good. He messes with your reaction to the simple trick through the subtleties of the presentation. Look at the publicity images floating around of him holding his written numbers above the lottery balls. Blatantly deceptive.

Originally Posted by Grod

Not true. It's random, so it's the same chance as it was before that the same sequence is picked.

If you flip a coin a ninety-nine times, and every time it lands on heads, it's not any more likely it's going to be tails for the hundredth flip. It's still a fifty percent chance.

Same in this situation, except with far more options.

Just to be annoying, if you have a coin that flips heads ninety-nine times, it is actually more likely to land heads the hundredth time. This is because it's probably a rigged coin.

Last night he had his second part to 'controlling the nation' and played a subliminal message to make people stick in their chairs, it was quite funny!

Originally Posted by Adam

Last night he had his second part to 'controlling the nation' and played a subliminal message to make people stick in their chairs, it was quite funny!

Yeah, I watched that unfortunately, I did not stick to my chair
If we can find a HD version of it online, we could post it in here and see if it works with the DV members.